2022 Week 16: Bengals 22, Patriots 18 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
*Weeks 16-17 game week, the game reports will be shortened a bit on some of them to discussing/quick hitting on just the critical facts from the rewatch studies so we can spend more time on looking at the tape of last week’s games for projections prep and sleeper finds this critical FF playoff week/s.
This was another one of those bizarre, late season NFL games where one team dominates the other for a half…then the dominant team can’t do anything the 2nd-half, as the previously do-nothing team mounts a furious comeback.
The Bengals led this game 22-0 at halftime, and the Pats were lucky it wasn’t 30+ to nothing. It was a joke. Then, the Bengals went to sleep and the Patriots kept fighting then suddenly it got close and Cincy tried to wake up but they couldn’t and New England kept coming and had the ball in goal-to-go are with a chance to take the lead late and leave Cincy with less than a minute remaining to try and comeback…and Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled and Cincy saved a win, luckily…in a game they were utterly dominating in the 1st-half. I can’t explain how teams can be so totally dominant for a half and then do absolutely nothing the next half, and vice-versa. It cannot be ‘halftime adjustments’, gimmie a break. These coaches aren’t that smart to solve everything during a 10 minute bathroom break…they can’t figure things out with a week of prep ahead of the game.
I think it is the team with big lead gets complacent with a big lead and goes super conservative, and then the team with the big deficit throws their stupid playbook/plan out the window and just freewheels it with a passing attack and suddenly gets back in it versus a passive, prevent-ish type defense by the team with the huge lead…and then the huge leads disappears.
Whatever it is that happened, Cincinnati gets the win and plays a huge game Week 17 vs. Buffalo on Monday Night Football. Win and the Bengals get the AFC North again and have a shot at a #1 seed. Lose to the Bills and then they are playing for the division title or wild card in Week 18 versus Baltimore. A huge divergence of two paths.
The Patriots fall to (7-8) and can still get a wild card if they win out and get help otherwise. Actually, it’s very plausible/likely the Pats will get in if they win out. They get Miami at NE, without Tua…and then Week 18 with the Bills might be Buffalo not caring about the game at all. The Patriots are very much alive for the playoffs, but I don’t think they have the horses to pull it off…but it’s very possible ‘on paper’.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The important thing to know from this game… Kendrick Bourne (6-100-1/9, 1-29-0) looked like an absolute star in this game. Catches in traffic…sideline toe-tapping clutch grabs…a jet sweep breaking tackles and springing loose. He had his first 100-yard game in the NFL…and he only played 57% of the snaps. The week prior, he played 71%...the week prior to that 71%.
Bourne’s snaps/playing time has been all over the place. He’s been (verbally) fighting with the head coach (reportedly) over usage/playing time. The owner has popped off back in September saying he wanted Bourne to have a bigger role…which only sunk Bourne further with Belichick, because he hates the owner.
DeVante Parker was out this game and is out for Week 17…that helps Bourne get snaps. But Bourne is not starting, and Belichick is reluctant to play him every other game. Bourne is a total wild card event for Week 17 against a so-so Miami pass defense.
-- Rhamondre Stevenson (13-30-0, 2-3-0/5) lost the fumble late in goal-to-go, that lost the Pats the game. In back-to-back weeks, the Patriots have lost on a failed lateral at the end of the game giving Las Vegas a shock win of the year and then driving down for the win here, coming back from a 22-0 deficit at the half…Stevenson fumbled it away on a goal line attempt.
Stevenson is not 100% but looked fine this game and played 91% of the snaps. Belichick is all-in on loving Rhamondre (unlike the opposite with Kendrick Bourne). I don’t think Belichick will punish Stevenson, especially with the Pats in must-win mode to get to the playoffs.
Damien Harris will be back this week, and will take some mild touches/snaps away but not enough to FF-ruin Stevenson…but if Stevenson fumbles early on…
*We have some upcoming website changes/upgrades coming in 2023. More news on that in a few days. Your saved URL/link for quick FFM access may not work with the upgrade (might have to get to the new page and resave as your quick access URL)…just noting this on the off-chance you get do get disconnected with your old link in the days to come -- that it is likely due to the site update. You can always find us via our (free) App or messages on Twitter or I’ll put a message out on Video if needed. Again, more news on the 2023 website updates/upgrades as we get to 2023.*
-- Joe Mixon (16-65-0, 7-43-0/9) had that 5 TD game in Week 9…if you ignore that game, Mixon has 3 TDs in his other 12 games played. If you count the playoffs last season, in Mixon’s last 20 games he has scored 5 TDs (3 rush, 2 rec.). That’s remarkable for a lead back in a high-end offense.
Mixon is FF-surviving on pass catches in PPR…4.7 catches per game his last 6 games. He’s usually under 100 yards rushing every game…and not scoring TDs…and Samaje Perine does some damage/takes snaps and touches…and he’s facing Buffalo this week.
-- A real problem for the Patriots Week 17, and a real boost for Miami WRs and Teddy…both CB Jack Jones (DNP) and emerging ace CB Marcus Jones (14 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 pick-six 69 yards) will be out for Week 17. Hurts the Pats defense…boosts the Miami offense a bit.
Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = Jakobi
52 = Tyq Thornton
32 = Bourne
19 = Agholor
03 = Marcus Jones
49 = Mixon
34 = Perine
