2022 Week 16: Chargers 20, Colts 3 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
*Weeks 16-17 game week, the game reports will be shortened a bit on some of them to discussing/quick hitting on just the critical facts from the rewatch studies so we can spend more time on looking at the tape of last week’s games for projections prep and sleeper finds this critical FF playoff week/s.
This was never a game. The Colts looked terrible…Nick Foles looked terrible. The only shocking thing was that the Chargers only won by only 17 points. It looked like it could’ve been a 30+ to 3 type of game. But the Chargers got ahead, and then realized the Colts had no chance…and the Chargers just played it safe, let the clock run and got out of there intact with a win.
The Chargers are (9-6) and have a lot to play for ahead…if they can get past the Ravens for the #5 seed, then they’ll face Jacksonville/Tennessee. If they stay in the 6th seed, then all kinds of tougher matchups…heading to Cincy or KC or Buffalo. The #5 seed in the AFC is a huge deal that LAC should end up getting.
The Colts (4-10-1) are embarrassing themselves on national television weekly. Jeff Saturday cannot interpret/read his personnel and his handpicked offensive coordinator is a moron with what players he’s starting/getting touches to. I had some hope that these fresh coaching faces would be interesting…but they are just more of the same in the NFL, can’t see talent right in front of them -- preferring grinders and/or veterans and ‘yes men’ to actual talented players. It’s working out swell for Saturday, who should have ruined his audition to be the 2023 HC, but Jim Irsay doesn’t care. The team/organization is run/owned by a space cadet, so why would be shocked when his coaches and GMs are also awful?
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I love Nick Foles (17-29 for 143 yards, 0 TDs/3 INTs). One of my favorite players of all time. One of my early career best scouting calls of all time. One of the most glaring examples of what’s wrong with the NFL…the way Foles was treated during his prime. Foles represents a lot to me.
So, with that…when I say he looked terrible in this game, at this stage of his career -- it pains me to say it, but it also means I’m not trying to gloss anything over for him. Arguably, this game was the worst looking QB play in a game of any QB in 2022. Foles looks like Matt Ryan -- his in-prime talent no longer exists (which is what makes Brady so amazing), throwing off his back foot under any pressure, throwing into coverage, no arm speed to count on in a muddy pocket. Foles threw a ton of passes that made no sense in this game. His three interceptions were three of the most ridiculous throws I’ve seen from a QB this season…they were not ‘bad luck’ or tipped or whatever -- they were all Foles serving things on a silver platter.
I say all that to state disbelief that Indy is sticking with him Week 17. To me, it means one of 2 things…
1) Jeff Saturday really has no idea of judging ‘talent’, but he’s trying to win a game because he thinks it’s going to help him get hired as head coach officially…and ‘veteran’ QB gets the nod because Saturday is kinda like a veteran player at this very moment, so he likely bonds with the older players.
2) The Colts are trying to lose on purpose for draft pick status.
No one could’ve watched that Foles Week 16 event and wanted to see more. This is a lost season. Foles won’t be on the team next year. Why not look at the amazing Sam Ehlinger that the owner just HAD TO look at midseason? This is the time to look at Ehlinger more for the future.
But they aren’t.
Whatever the reason, Foles is shot -- and the NY Giants defense is getting him Week 17, and I would not be surprised if they sack Foles 5-10 times and get 1-4 picks. Unless Foles makes some dramatic improvement AND the O-Line makes some radical improvement…this is gonna be juicy for NYG-DST.
-- For as bad as Foles was in this game, Justin Herbert (24-31 for 235 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) barely scored more FF points than him. Herbert’s single worst FF game in his three-year career.
Herbert looks totally fine, a complete opposite issue of Foles. It’s just a couple things hurting Herbert…
1) The Chargers offensive coordinator is the 2nd worst in the NFL. This temp Colts O-C is the single worst. This LAC offense ridiculously underperforms while possessing arguably the most gifted QB in the league.
2) This Chargers team fancies itself as a good-defense and run game type team, when they are not…but they’re playing weak opponents and getting leads and then just meandering safely to victory of late.
Barely beating Tennessee Week 15 is not impressive. Not really dominating this Colts team here, also not impressive. Next up, a not-good Rams team…but the Rams defense is working better than LAC’s last two opponents. Maybe it forces Herbert to throw more but if LAC gets up on the Rams quickly, they will shut it down into run mode and Herbert will disappoint.
Herbert’s last four games: 2 TDs/3 INTs. He’s getting sacked/hit at the highest rates of 2022 lately. There’s something wrong here and it caps Herbert’s upside right now.
-- Herbert is only really throwing to Keenan Allen (11-104-0/14) now (when not a screen to an RB)…a safe throw that Indy couldn’t stop. During this three game LAC win streak, Allen is averaging 10.3 catches (12.3 targets), 94.0 yards, and 0.0 TDs per game.
Mike Williams (4-76-0/4) has been sliding while Keenan becomes the every-target option. In the last three games, Big Mike has averaged: 4.7 rec. (6.0 targets), 86.3 yards, 0.33 TDs…with his output declining weekly, from the lofty levels it was at with Keenan out or Keenan just getting back up to speed.
Williams is a wild card against the Rams Week 17. You never know when the next big Big Mike moment is. He’s steady week-to-week, with the big upside hope.
-- I figured the Colts would lean on Zach Moss (12-65-0, 1-5-0/1), since they did Week 16 when Jon Taylor got hurt…but I thought they might eventually give up on pathetic Moss and run Deon Jackson (0-0-0, 3-9-0/3) more because it’s so obvious Moss is a waste of space in the NFL.
Well, going along with the theory of Saturday and the new O-C being complete morons…or complicit in trying to lose -- not only did Moss take the lead Week 17, DJax didn’t have one rushing play. It’s like Jackson, the more talented back, doesn’t even exist now.
Figure more of the same (heavy Moss) Week 17.
-- Jelani Woods (3-43-0/5) was trying to save Foles here. Once again, Woods showed great receiving skills…finally getting his first start and playing a majority of the snaps at TE for Indy. Kylen Granson was inactive/hurt, so that’s the reason why Woods got a boost…not because this staff can see any talent and made a purposeful move to Woods.
Granson will be out again Week 17. Woods should start/lead, but this passing game is so awful it’s hard to see a for-sure TE1 week for Woods, but it’s possible.
-- The LAC-DST put up its third good game in a row…holding a third in a row opponent to 17 points or fewer. LAC’s defense looks a lot better but they’re also getting cupcake opponents -- they got struggling Tua, injured everything Tennessee, and Foles/Indy in their three-game hot streak. The good news is, they get a weak Rams offense Week 17 and then the Denver disaster Week 18. They could/should close out strong.
Snap Counts of Interest:
52 = Pittman
46 = Campbell
38 = Pierce
36 = Moss
08 = Deon Jax
08 = Wilkins
33 = Jelani
23 = Alie-Cox
37 = Everett
31 = McKitty
24 = Parham
41 = Ekeler
23 = J Kelley
04 = Roundtree
