2022 Week 15: Chargers 17, Titans 14 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
Tennessee had been blown out in their past two games, aided by injuries throughout their defense, going into this game. The Chargers were coming off a big win over the Dolphins, where they played one of their best games of the past two years in doing so. I thought the Chargers would host the Titans here, and wreck them…LAC had momentum and health, and the Titans did not.
However, it was a very close game…one either team could’ve won. The Chargers took an early 7-0 lead, looking efficient/tight and it seemed like Tennessee was going to fall again…especially with Ryan Tannehill getting his leg hurt again and needing to be carted off to get medical checked. But the Titans hung in the game, Tannehill returned and kept them in it…a defensive struggle ensued…and Tannehill hit a QB sneak for a game tying TD with 0:48 remaining.
With time running down, and the game looking like it was headed to OT, Justin Herbert threw an amazing 35-yard frozen rope to Mike Williams to get into last second field goal position and Dicker The Kicker hit the game winner. The Chargers escaped.
The Chargers jump to (8-6), on their way to the playoffs. They have a gift of a schedule the rest of the way: IND-LAR-DEN. They should get to at least 10 wins and a wild card, and thus will retain Brandon Staley, which is the worst thing that could’ve possibly happened -- but here they are.
The Titans have lost 4 games in a row to fall to (7-7)…now just a game ahead of Jacksonville. It could be a fight to the finish between them with Week 18 at JAX to settle it. Everyone assumes the Titans will pull it out in the end, and they should because they are a better team -- but so many injuries for the Titans could get them tripped up in the end. On top of that, Malik Willis is likely to start Week 16…and that’s another injury issue/continuity loss the Titans continue to have across all positions.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- In the 1st-quarter, Ryan Tannehill (15-22 for 165 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) got his leg rolled up/injured and off the field he went and onto a cart to go get checked out. Malik Willis (3-4 for 20 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 1-8-0) entered the game…for what seemed like the rest of the season, but it was only for one series before Tannehill took back over.
Tannehill played through the injury with great grit/adrenaline, etc., but the injury is now settling in after game day and he is doubtful for Week 16. Willis is set to start.
I watched back all Willis’s snaps here, and I’m pleased to announce that he looked good…best he has looked all year in his fill-in spots. Willis keeps taking a step every week/appearance it seems, and this brief moment was his high-water mark to date.
Willis actually stood in the pocket, less jumpy, and fired bullets to his receivers…accurate ones. Willis’s arm is so good/strong that the ball is to the receiver before defenders can react. Willis hit 3-of-4 passes…and his incomplete was going to be a safe completion, but the ball got tipped at the line of scrimmage and sent to off the mark/to the ground.
We ‘might’ get a shock Willis performance Week 16 in this start…it might not be the super low pass attempt/volume games of the past. However, the weather is going to be quite cold…and set up for more running than Willis’s rocket arm passing, but Willis looks ready to lead an offense finally…and put up some decent FF numbers.
-- One of Willis’s rockets was to Chig Okonkwo (4-54-0/5), who continued his momentum build to ‘best pass game weapon the Titans got (with Burks out)’ status. Chig is catching timing passes but also coming free on routes and making good runs-after-catch. He’s playing a lesser version of what Evan Engram is suddenly doing…becoming a weapon, getting the ball on the move…not stiff, boring, turn around and sit-down TE targets anymore.
With Ryan Tannehill, Chig is a strong TE1 hope each week. With Willis…it’s up in the air how much and how he’ll be used…more risk of low volume with Willis, for sure.
-- Justin Herbert (28-42 for 313 yards, 0 TD/2 INT) had that late game rocket throw to set up the game winning field goal, and Herbert played another solid game overall -- but despite him looking good visually, it was an FF-dud of a game for output/points.
Herbert continues to lead drives down to the goal line area, with his arm, then we watch the Chargers run it in from there…time and time again. It’s killing his FF scoring. This was a perfect matchup of a wounded secondary who had been getting trounced and Herbert with his weapons back ready to take advantage -- he didn’t. And it caused a lot of Week 15 FF-losses…a bad FF result at the very worst time.
That’s been the flow with Herbert all year, every other game…looks good, but the FF results stink. I want to reject him Week 16 versus Indy -- but in a dome, as good as Herbert can be…it’s hard to turn away. Herbert had four straight quality games going into this game but then struck out here. Herbert is a (7/7) this season…with no real predictable pattern. Most teams with high-end QBs let their QB run the show near the goal line…but LAC either puckers up and fails at throwing for scores with terrible play calls or they just run it one-to-three times to try and get the score or settle for the field goal. I really hate the Chargers offensive coordinator…two years running, the same problems unfixed.
-- Austin Ekeler (12-58-1, 2-12-0/3) got banged up in this game and it led to some extra Joshua Kelley (10-24-1, 1-7-0/2) work. Ekeler should be Ok for Week 16 but will likely continue to share with Kelley more than people expect/want.
The past three games, Kelley has 7-5-11 for touches in games and has played up into the 30s/40s for percent of offensive snaps played…season highs.
-- Donald Parham (3-35-0/3) returned from injury again…and looked great again…but he’s always lightly used, so no matter how good he looks you can’t count on him yet…and maybe never if this staff stays in place for 2023. Parham played 22 snaps to Gerald Everett’s 44.
-- Talking DSTs…
Second week in a row the Chargers-DST looks really good…best two game stint I’ve seen them play this year, for sure. Facing Matt Ryan (if) Week 16 is as good a matchup as you could hope for in any given week right now…thus our high DST weekly rating for LAC-DST. And then Week 17 vs. LAR is the other great DST opportunity…as is Denver Week 18.
The Titans supposedly had a great matchup for Week 16 vs. Houston, but now that’s up in the air because the Titans are still all banged up on defense…and Houston battled toe-to-toe against KC and Dallas in the past two weeks, games Houston should’ve won. I’m not sure Houston is what we should be looking to target right now.
Snap Counts of Interest:
49 = Ekeler
25 = Kelley
44 = Everett
22 = Parham
37 = Chig
32 = Swaim
30 = Hooper
52 = Tannehill
10 = Willis
