DFS Shark Tank Week 15: Player/Stack/Avoid Pitch for the $1M+ Open Tournaments
Andrew Duhan, better known as ‘Andrew DFS’, is a serious DFS player and is the most expert player I (RC) know and our own Ross Jacobs will give us their weekly DFS advice for Sunday…
ANDREW DFS:
Stack of the week
Most popular play this week will be Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. He definitely has a shot at breaking 30 points, especially since CB Derek Stingley will be out for the Texans. However, there is a good chance that this game will not be competitive which could lead to a run heavy script for the Chiefs. In addition, the weakness of the Texans defense is the inability to stop the run. This could end up being a better matchup for Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco as opposed to Mahomes.
The two QBs that I’d consider in a large pool are LAC QB Justin Herbert and CIN QB Joe Burrow. Both have favorable matchups, especially the Chargers going up against a porous Titans secondary. My only fear with the Chargers is that the team tends to disappoint when they are expected to win games. This is a game where Herbert should easily have 300+ passing yards and 3+ passing touchdowns, which gives me concern.
If Herbert is selected as the QB, WR Mike Williams and/or WR Keenan Allen are excellent stack options. The former has a lower ownership projection than the latter. On the flip side, RB Derrick Henry and TE Chig Okonkwo are great choices as bring back pieces. For the lineup with Joe Burrow, selecting CIN WR Ja’Marr Chase is a must. If WR Tee Higgins is ruled out, then CIN WR Trenton Irwin becomes a cheap play with a ton of upside. TB WR Mike Evans and WR Chris Godwin are good choices as the bring back piece. Evans is projected to have a much lower ownership percentage than Godwin.
Mid-range play of the week
Isiah Pacheco is my top mid-range play of the week (see explanation above). Another mid-range play that could have a high output on Sunday is NYJ RB Zonovan Knight ($5,100; 10 – 15 % ownership projection). Knight is the clear-cut leader of the Jets backfield as evidenced by his usage when fellow RB Michael Carter returned to the lineup last week. The Jets may run the ball more than usual since QB Mike White is dealing with an injury, and Zach Wilson is starting. The Lions are a much different team on the road (and outdoors) which will make this a favorable matchup for Knight.
Cheap play of the week
WR Trenton Irwin and TE Chig Okonkwo are two great cheap options priced below $4,000 as discussed above. Another interesting option this week is JAC TE Evan Engram. His projected ownership level isn’t as chalky as you would expect after a 40+ point performance last week. While we shouldn’t expect 15 targets, 6 -8 targets are definitely a reasonable expectation making Engram a value play at $3,800.
Chalk to avoid
Time for my weekly soliloquy about chalky players. There are valid reasons why players have a high ownership projection. The player could have a favorable matchup and/or low salary relative to their expected volume. If a chalky player doesn’t have a high output day, then there is a decent chance that your lineup will not be good enough to win the top prize. On the other hand, if a chalky player explodes and isn’t in your lineup, then there is little hope to come out on top. My rule with chalky players is to only let them flow into your lineup if you’re very confident that they’ll explode.
The two players with the highest ownership projection in this week’s slate are Broncos DST and HOU WR Chris Moore. Both are priced competitively within their respective position and should provide a nice ROI. Out of all the players with an ownership projection in excess of 20%, I would avoid Jaguars RB Travis Etienne. Etienne has had underwhelming performances for four straight weeks (failed to crack 12 points in that span). The Cowboys defense has only allowed a 100 yard rusher twice this year (Leonard Fournette in Week 1 and Aaron Jones in Week 10).
ROSS JACOBS:
Favorite Stack
Thin pickings this week with so many teams not playing on Sunday. One name jumps out at me as the obvious play and while I would normally avoid that, I don't want to get too cute with it here. Love Justin Herbert paired with Mike Williams and you can go with a secondary stack of Ekeler, Allen, or Palmer. Herbert is one of the best QBs in the league, but he's been held back for fantasy a lot this year because he was missing several of his receivers for multiple games. Now everyone is back and healthy which means Herbert is trending up big time.
Best mid-priced option
I have two good value options around the $5000 range. First, D'Onta Foreman on the now run-heavy Panthers facing a good Pitt defense, but a defense that can be beaten on the ground. Nobody in the mainstream respects Foreman, but he is low-key one of the most underrated RBs in the league right now.
For my second pick I'm going to go with Zay Jones for $4900. Zay has averaged just a hair under 11 targets per game his past 4 games and has at least 8 catches for 68 yards in 3 of the 4. Opposing defenses still consider Kirk the top guy and it is allowing Zay to see lesser coverage at times. Why is that important? Because Dallas has a very good defense and that is going to scare a lot of people off of playing Zay but with Anthony Brown (the #2 corner) done for the year, the Cowboys have thrown Kelvin Joseph in opposite Diggs and Joseph is very exploitable, especially by a great route runner like Zay.
Best cheap option
I'm going to cheat a little here and give two answers to this one as well. My first very cute option is Rashid Shaheed at a paltry $3200. Shaheed's snaps have grown each of the past 3 weeks and he scored in the last 2. He's just getting better and better by the week, a real weapon that could easily burn a bad Atlanta secondary for a long TD.
And my second option is conditional: if Rhamondre Stevenson is out then the play is Pierre Strong for $4000. Kevin Harris is the 1st and 2nd down hammer, but Strong will be the 3rd down guy and has the speed to break a big play if he gets a crease. It's a high upside play that is much more likely to bust than not, but as I stress about playing DFS tournaments every time, you don't worry about whether your player hits, you play the guys that if they hit, they distinguish your lineup from everybody else to help you win the big bucks. Strong and Shaheed are two of the best homerun chances available this week.
