2022 Week 14: Lions 34, Vikings 23 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
You have to consider the Vikings went into this game without two key O-Linemen, Darrisaw-Bradbury and without defensive leader Harrison Smith. The Vikings were not at full capacity, and they played about as well as could be expected. Minnesota showed a lot of heart.
But the simple truth of the matter is -- the Detroit Lions are just better than the Vikings, whether at full capacity or wounded like they were here. At a minimum, these two teams are equally good. The Lions took control of this game early and never let the Vikings get back into…the Lions were just too tough, too physical, too efficient. They left the Vikings with their only hope, once again, throwing every pass to Justin Jefferson…which is a pretty good plan, but couldn’t get them in control this day. Minnesota played frazzled by the Lions onslaught…and Detroit led wire-to-wire, usually by two scores most of the game.
Detroit is now (6-7) and by virtue of the Seahawks losing on TNF and one of Washington-NYG going to lose their matchup Sunday…if the Lions win Week 15, they will be a half-a-game out of the wildcard with three games left to go. If Detroit wins out, they get to 10 wins and that will almost guarantee a playoff spot. If Detroit lands at 9 wins…it might get them in there, but an early season loss to Seattle could break their heart in the tiebreaker for the final spot. Detroit has a schedule that allows them to win out, I believe, if they beat the Jets this week -- and ‘boom’ they get Zach Wilson at QB for NYJ to help the cause.
I think Seattle ends up under .500 with their schedule, so it’s gonna take one of Washington or NYG to fall down to help Detroit get in at 9 wins, but a 10-win Lions team is in for sure.
Minnesota is now (10-3), still a lock to win the NFC North…they just need one more win and their schedule is filled with easy opportunities for that. The Vikings should get up into the 12-win area with some hope of a #1 seed, but not likely to see the Eagles collapse to allow it. It’s possible the Vikings could be a #3 seed and host…the Detroit Lions in the 1st-round of the playoffs.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- If the Lions win out and get to 10 wins and the playoffs, I’d like for someone to at least cast a vote/consideration for Jared Goff as the MVP in 2022. For all the crap he’s had to put up with…being traded for Matthew Stafford, then Stafford winning a Super Bowl, while the Lions rebuild struggled all 2021…then the Lions kept losing heartbreaker after heartbreaker all 2021 and early 2022, but then a huge turnaround from Week 9 this season on…considering all the media pressure/hate about him needing to be replaced every week, every offseason, etc. -- to possibly getting this team from a (1-6) start to (10-7) final record and the playoffs. It’s truly amazing.
Another failed QB coup by the media and fans. I’d love to see it. so, he won’t even be mentioned as an MVP candidate because that would spotlight how 1,000% wrong the media has been about Goff. The media is not in the ‘getting things right’ business…they’re in the ‘cover up’ business and in the ‘things that feed their narratives’ business…whether world news or stupid football news. They’ll never admit their error about Goff, they’ll just go silent and hope you forget…and then when he loses a game or has a bad season, even if that’s 3-5 years from now -- they’ll be back out mocking him that THEY were right all along.
Also, if Detroit gets to the playoffs…I’m not sure how Dan Campbell can’t be the Coach of the Year. But I’m not sure the media wants that either, but they are more OK with Campbell than Goff…that’s for sure.
Back-to-back 300+ yard passing games for Goff, but I can’t imagine he’ll log another at the Jets in the freezing cold against that defense.
-- Helping Goff/the Lions offensive assault this game were two receivers of note…
1) D.J. Chark (6-94-1/7) continued his reemergence with his second 90+ yard game in a row, and a big FF scoring effort for many FFMers who picked him up on the fly last week. He looks great, and I’m ready to use him as we go this season -- but I can’t get as excitedly behind the matchup with the Jets Week 15. That NYJ secondary and the weather…not optimal, everything about Week 15 v. NYJ was the opposite here…great matchup, in a dome…and ‘boom’!
2) Jameson Williams (1-41-1/2) got lost in coverage and Goff planted a bomb TD right on him…and then we barely saw him in the rest of the game. Every time I’d see Detroit in a hurry up spot and/or 4-5 wide looks, I’d never see Jameson. Kalif Raymond in the game in heavy passing situations? Yes…Jameson? Not really.
Jameson got another target later in the game…a little swing pass by design for him, of which he dropped. He looks totally not a part of this offense, so you cannot expect him to make any FF dent this season. The Lions are not pushing him, he doesn’t look comfortable, and Detroit is scoring points and winning…so why would they need to change anything?
-- I cannot figure out the Lions backfield…
The past two games, Jamaal Williams (16-37-0) is only playing 30%+ of the snaps. He has a string of six games in-a-row below 3.8 yards per carry in every game. He’s got 1 target total in the past six games. He’s highly inefficient, but they love him as their lead…but I think they’re also seeing he’s quasi-killing them at the same time.
D’Andre Swift (6-21-0, 3-18-0/4) is more talented and Detroit would love to see him grab the reins, but they do not seem to trust Swift with that lead role. Six or less carries in a game in seven of his last 8 games. Swift is also playing around 30%+ of the snaps in games, but with less touches than Jamaal.
Justin Jackson (4-19-1, 1-12-0/1) is kinda creeping up as a trusted RB, playing 20%+ of the snaps.
Essentially, it’s a three-headed monster backfield right now.
I don’t know if you can trust any of them, but If I had to FF-trust one of them…it would be Swift, on the upside hopes.
-- Dalvin Cook (15-23-1, 1-13-0/2) got destroyed here. Kudos to the Lions run defense that looks terrific, and it’s not just my eyes…
After being one of the worst run defenses in the league, giving up constant 100+, 150+, 200+ yard rushing tallies to opponents…the Lions D has held three of their last 4 opponents to under 100 yards rushing total.
-- Just a quick IDP note…
I can’t help but watch Lions rookie EDGE James Houston (1 tackle, 1.0 sacks) rush the passer when he enters the game. He’s a nightmare for blockers to keep away from the pocket. The more the Lions unleash him, the more dangerous this defense is.
Houston has played three games this season, with 5-12-21 snaps in the three games and had 4.0 sacks in those three limited time games.
Houston has more sacks on the season, in three limited snap games, than…
#1 overall pick Travon Walker (3.5 sacks)
#5 overall pick Kayvon Thibodeaux (2.0)
#26 overall pick Jermaine Johnson (2.5)
#30 overall pick George Karlaftis (3.5)
…and I just listed every EDGE rusher prospect taken in the 1st-round of the 2022 NFL Draft…EXCEPT for Houston’s teammate Aidan Hutchinson (7.0).
Hutchinson-Houston are #1-2 among the rookie class in sacks so far this season.
Snap Counts of Interest:
26 = Jamaal Williams
25 = Swift
20 = J Jackson
61 = St Brown
60 = DJ Chark
43 = J Reynolds
13 = Jameson
08 = Raymond
