DFS Shark Tank Week 14: Player/Stack/Avoid Pitch for the $1M+ Open Tournaments
Andrew Duhan, better known as ‘Andrew DFS’, is a serious DFS player and is the most expert player I (RC) know. He gives us weekly DFS advice for main slate’s every week. Here are some of his picks and avoids for this week…
Stack of the week
-- Highest game total (51.5) of the Week 14 mainslate is the DET vs MIN matchup. Both QBs are projected to be the top owned at their position. Makes sense given that both defenses have given up a ton of points to QBs and the game will be indoors. As we discussed last week, the Lions D has been coming on as of late; Trevor Lawrence was held under 20 fantasy points last week. If I had to choose a QB in this game, I would go with Goff and stack him with Amon-Ra St. Brown and a bring back piece of TJ Hockenson, Dalvin Cook and/or Adam Thielen.
In the prior matchup, the Lions did everything in their power to slow down Justin Jefferson and almost beat the Vikings at home. I suspect they’ll deploy a similar game plan which may lead to a heavier usage of everybody not named Justin Jefferson. Amon-Ra St. Brown will be the highest owned WR; however, barring injury, it’s difficult to envision him ending up with less than 25 points. ASRB is a must for cash games and smaller pools; DJ Chark is a contrarian alternative if you’re not comfortable with the chalky play in GPP contests.
My QB selection for a large pool is actually outside of this game; my Week 14 play is SEA QB Geno Smith. Seattle’s standout rookie RB Kenneth Walker will most likely miss this game which could lead to a heavier pass game script for the Seahawks. Stack options for Geno Smith are Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, Noah Fant and Marquise Goodwin. Metcalf is dealing with an injury himself but is expected to play. Lockett, Fant, and Goodwin could pick up the slack if Metcalf is limited at all. D’Onta Foreman is an excellent bring-back piece as the Panthers are already a run heavy team, and this week they face a Seahawks defense which is one of the worst run defenses in the league.
Mid-Range Play
-- My mid-range play of the week is SEA WR Tyler Lockett, whose ownership projection is between 10 to 15 percent. Fellow Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf is dealing with an injury and will be the primary focus of the Panthers defense which will give Lockett more opportunities than usual.
Cheap Play
BUF RB James Cook is priced at D$4,600 and has a projected ownership percentage right around 10%. The Jets defense has two very strong outside cornerbacks which could lead Josh Allen to check the ball down to McKenzie, Cook, and Knox more than typical weeks. Cook had more opportunities than fellow RB Devin Singletary for the first-time last week. While this may not be a trend that carries over to future weeks, the low-price tag makes Cook a worthwhile gamble.
Chalk to avoid
-- Players will have high ownership projections if their price tag is too low and/or matchup is favorable. Can’t always avoid chalky players, especially if you’re confident that they’ll have massive outputs (see ASRB above). If the chalk hits, you keep pace with the rest of the pool; if the chalky fails, then you’re chances of winning a large pool takes a decent hit. Out of all the players that have an ownership projection in excess of 20%, I would avoid selecting the Dallas Cowboys DST vs. HOU.
I believe the high ownership projection is being driven by the Browns DST throwing up three defensive touchdowns last week versus Houston. I think it’s fair to say that game was an anomaly. Typically, you want to spend less money for DST and TE since these positions have less upside. There have been only four TEs and one DST (Cleveland last week) to score more than 30 points this season. At D$3,900, the Cowboys DST will need at least 15 points to have an acceptable ROI; keep in mind, by allocating funds to the DST position less money is spent at position that have high output potential (i.e. QB, WR and RB).
There have been 10 games that had a double-digit point spread, game total of no more than 44 points, and a home favorite this season (i.e. similar to DAL vs HOU). The average FF points from these games is close to 11; the highest ironically being the Cowboys vs Colts last week (20 points).
