2022 Week 14 NFL Handicapping: All Picks ATS and Survivor Pool Pick
We're coming off a decent Week 13….
10-5 ATS on all picks.
Best bet was an underdog outright win pick, and Detroit crushed Jax to bring it home.
But a 2-3 Blazing Five was a downer, my first underwater B5 in weeks. I've only had like 2-3 underwater all season and it be 2-3 not 1-4/0-5.
The recent week or two, Vegas has given us great dogs to play. Vegas is self-correcting or the matchups just align -- and I believe they are giving us a few more favorites to work with this week.
Good luck with your plays this week…or if you're just running with ours. Note: Right now, on picks where all 3 analysts agree (and we submit picks independent of each other/don't know who is picking what), we're running 67%+ ATS. That's an FYI for your betting considerations.
Week 13 results…
FFM All picks straight up: 9-5-1
FFM ATS: 10-5
FFM Best Bet: 1-0
FFM Blazing Five (no TNF): 2-3
FFM Calling a dog for an outright win: 2-3
Chris ATS: 13-2
Ross ATS: 5-10
Chris Best Bet: 0-1
Ross Best Bet: 0-1
When All 3 analysts agree: 5-1
When both analysts disagree with my pick: 1-0, for me
FFM Survivor: SEA(W)
Chris Survivor: XXX
Ross Survivor: SEA(W)
All Underdogs ATS = 7-8
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YTD results…
All picks straight up: 137-66-2
ATS: 117-74-4 (61%)
Best Bet: 9-4
Blazing Five (no TNF): 41-22-2 (65.1%)
Calling a dog for an outright win: 17-11
Chris ATS: 121-70-4
Ross ATS: 98-93-4
Chris Best Bet: 9-4
Ross Best Bet: 6-7
When All 3 analysts agree: 50-24-1
When both analysts disagree with my pick: 20-17, for me
FFM Survivor: BAL(W), BUF(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), CIN(W), KC(W), MIA(W), ATL(L), NO(W), DAL(W), SEA(W)
Chris Survivor: BAL(W), GB(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), LAR(W), CIN(W), DAL(W), BUF(L), TEN(W), SF(W)
Ross Survivor: DEN(L), XXX, BUF (L), GB(W), PHI(W), SF(L), LV(W), DAL(W), TB(W), KC(W), BAL(W), MIA(W), SEA(W)
All Underdogs ATS = 103-88-4
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Week 14 Picks….
NYJ at BUF (-9.5)
The Computer says: BUF by 3.1 (a 6.4 spread differential)
I would not be shocked if the Jets won this game outright. Where would this line be had Braxton Berrios held onto the game winning TD last week? The Jets are no joke, and Buffalo is still not playing as well as they did early season. The Bills have been fading a bit for weeks. No longer are they 'unbeatable'/super strong.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: BUF
Ross Jacobs:
TB at SF (-3.5)
The Computer says: SF by 9.8 (a 6.3 spread differential)
I think Tampa Bay is terrible, and they are…have been for weeks and weeks, and we've been picking against them to ATS success for a while. TB struggled with the Saints who have a weak offense and good defense last week. What's gonna happen when they face SF's defense…and better than NO's offense?
People will be against Brock Purdy here, and that's a mistake.
*FFM Survivor Pick*
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: TB
Ross Jacobs:
JAX at TEN (-3.5)
The Computer says: TEN by 7.0 (a 3.5 spread differential)
No way the Titans lose three in-a-row…or lose to the Jags. Tennessee is all banged up or this would be the bet of the week…it might be anyway.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: TEN
Ross Jacobs:
MIA (-3.0) at LAC
The Computer says: MIA by 7.8 (a 4.8 spread differential)
If Miami had their O-Line intact, this would be the bet of the week. It's a solid pick/bet, regardless. The Chargers are awful.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: LAC
Ross Jacobs:
BAL at PIT (-2.5) *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*
The Computer says: BAL by 0.2 (a 2.7 spread differential)
Two very mediocre teams but Baltimore has the better QB…and the ace kicker to pull out a close game or stay close for a cover.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: BAL
Ross Jacobs:
LV (-6.5) at LAR
The Computer says: LV by 3.8 (a 2.7 spread differential)
I think the Rams could win this game if Brandon Powell is not sick/good-to-go. I want to pick the Rams but watching the Raiders tape of last week's game, that defense with a plausible offense and just the energy LV is playing with…I'm chickening out to a LV win/LAR cover scenario.
The Rams really looked good last week, with their new young player approach…but LV just looked better and have more talent.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: LAR
Ross Jacobs:
KC (-9.5) at DEN
The Computer says: KC by 11.9 (a 2.4 spread differential)
I cannot find a case for Denver to cover or stay close in this game.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: DEN
Ross Jacobs:
NE (-1.5) at ARI
The Computer says: ARI by 0.2 (a 1.7 spread differential)
I don't like either of these teams, but Arizona getting a bit healthier and running with Hopkins-Brown and Dortch/Moore for the first time is a new wrinkle that may show us a new, fast paced offense, and the Pats defense struggles with any halfway decent QB.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: ARI
Ross Jacobs:
CLE at CIN (-6.5)
The Computer says: CIN by 7.8 (a 1.3 spread differential)
This is betting against Deshaun Watson more than anything else. He did not look good last week. Facing Cincy his 2nd week back isn't going to be easy.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: CLE
Ross Jacobs:
HOU at DAL (-16.5)
The Computer says: DAL by 15.4 (a 1.1 spread differential)
So many points, I just can't turn them away. Davis Mills back at starter clinches it.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: HOU
Ross Jacobs:
CAR at SEA (-4.0)
The Computer says: SEA by 3.0 (a 1.0 spread differential)
It's too many points to give by a Seattle team that has its run game on life support going into this game. If D'Onta Foreman has to miss this game/is worse than early injury reports -- then I go with Seattle. I will make that switch Fri-Sat, when the info comes out…but for early picks, I'll just take the points with no confidence.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: SEA *BEST BET*
Ross Jacobs:
PHI (-6.5) at NYG
The Computer says: PHI by 6.8 (a 0.3 spread differential)
NYG is running out of healthy players to compete with a loaded, humming Eagles offense/team.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: PHI
Ross Jacobs:
MIN at DET (-2.5)
The Computer says: DET by 2.7 (a 0.2 spread differential)
To me, as of the 'right now'…Detroit is the better team, so I'll take them at home for a pick, not a bet. I hate this line…I was hoping Vegas would make this a MIN -1+ favorite to jump on.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: MIN
Ross Jacobs:
