2022 Week 13: Vikings 27, Jets 22 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
If this were a boxing scorecard judgment, I’d say these two teams played a hard-fought contest, both squads are good NFL teams…but I’d judge the Jets as the better of the two teams, here in this game and in general. But the Jets lost here.
The Vikings played well in the 1st-half. The Jets were sputtering a bit, not playing to the Vikings level and found themselves down 20-3 with under a minute to go until halftime. From that point on the Jets amped up the energy and beat/controlled the Vikings 19-7 from there…but lost the game…lost when the Jets’ final drive got down to the goal line and they couldn’t convert in four chances…the final chance a WR drop of a 1-yard pass in the end zone.
When they needed it, the Jets defense started dominating the Vikings and the Jets offense started firing away and moving the ball almost at will behind Mike White’s arm. The second half of this game, facing a good opponent, the way the Jets played -- they showed more evidence that they are not just a scrappy upstart…they are one of the 10 best teams in the NFL, and definitely a team no one in the AFC playoffs would want to draw in the 1st-round.
NYJ falls to (7-5), but they should be more like 9 wins already…had they made the move to Mike White earlier/from Week 1. They might be a legit Super Bowl threat had they let White develop all season. Instead, they are (7-5) with a very tough schedule ahead. They should get to 9 wins minimum in the end, 10 wins upside…and that should be good enough for a wildcard, but their two Zach Wilson losses could be the thing that kicks them out of the wildcard IF New England somehow gets to 9 wins and ties them, but has the tiebreaker over them.
Minnesota is now (10-2)…somehow. I always sell them short, but they never get my attention on the game tape. I always walk away wondering…how did they win that game? They are nowhere near as good as their record…or I am just missing ‘it’ every week, which can happen. They are steady Eddie…hanging in games and winning them, and half of them they’re outplayed by a more talented opponent but credit the Vikings -- they find ways to win or are extremely lucky, and win. They’ll win the NFC North. They could be a #1 seed…except their two losses are to Dallas and Philly, if it comes down to tiebreakers for that seeding…and it probably will. We project them to 12-13 wins and a shot at a #1 seed.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Because NYJ got down three scores early, they needed to hurry up to comeback, so Mike White (31-57 for 369 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs, 3-7-1) got basically two games worth of pass attempts in one contest…good for his yards, but all those throws and no TDs? He coulda/shoulda had 1-2-3 TD passes, but things didn’t flow/go his way.
Taking a step back from the numbers, I thought White looked terrific here. He’s known for his smart RB checkdowns, but he was dropping back, in this deficit crisis, and just zipping the ball all over the field…like a real QB. When they needed him to be a come-from-behind QB…he was able to. Granted, the Vikings pass defense is not good.
Back-to-back 300+ yard passing games for white, but that’s really not going to be his mode…the Jets wanna run and play good defense to victory, not be in a constant hurry up all-pass offense. But note, if it does happen -- White looks like he can handle it just fine. Why the Jets took so long to make the QB decision could be the 2022 season death of them.
At Buffalo Week 14 won’t be easy.
I say, most analysts say, White is more a game manager and/or checkdown guy -- but he has started/finished four NFL games and has thrown for 250 or more yards in all of them…310 or more yards in three of the 4…but has racked an 6 TD/8 INT ratio in those 4 games as well. Four career starts/finishes and he’s a (3/1) for FF Q-starts.
-- Zonovan Knight (15-90-0, 5-28-0/5) had a nice follow up to his Week 13 breakout. Nothing new to report…he’s just their best/most talented runner of the ball, like I said in the preseason. He’s not a superstar…just better than Carter-Ty J, but probably not better than Breece Hall (memba him?)…but not that far off, which is why you shouldn’t waste high draft picks on RBs.
With Carter coming back this week…Robert Saleh is out promoting/backing Zon. I don’t believe he means that Knight will play heavy snaps as Carter sits, just that it’s not going to be the other way around…Knight to bench as Carter returns. It will be a Knight-Carter split (forcing them to random RB2/3s) with Ty Johnson (1-3-0, 6-38-0/7) on most 3rd-downs.
-- NYJ WR scouting…
Garrett Wilson (8-162-0/15) is beyond clear that he’s the #1 WR target for Mike White. White looks to him almost every throw he’s going downfield on.
Corey Davis (5-85-0/10) and Elijah Moore (2-7-0/6) are not sleepers or hopefuls in this…they are random bit players. So many times, this game, I was watching White drop back to pass and multiple receivers were open and White would choose Wilson, more times than not, even if it was the more complicated throw…or he just didn’t look/see the other guys because his eyes favored Garrett.
I saw this ‘ignoring the other open WRs’ multiple times with Moore, who would be open right in front of White’s face, and he’d rather force it to Wilson. And Moore was visibly, subtly pissed/frustrated about it…and he should be.
Davis had a nice stat line but much of his work came in the hurry up late. He was not a desired plan prior either.
-- Finishing off the Jets notes...
The NYJ-DST didn’t have a killer game. They allowed 27 points and no got no turnovers and just 2 sacks. But visually, they looked really good. They meandered for a half, but when they put the hammer down in the 2nd-half…they put the hammer down. They suffocated Kirk Cousins in the 2nd-half. And some of the hits they made, legal hits…hard hits…it was impressive. This is as bully a defense as there is in the league now. Credit Minnesota for taking the blows and outlasting NYJ. Lesser offenses will be consumed by NYJ defense.
-- There is usually nothing interesting for me to report on the Vikings…and it was true here again.
It’s the same theme/results every week…Kirk Cousins is fine, a QB2…Dalvin Cook is an RB1…Justin Jefferson is a supreme WR1…and T.J. Hockenson is a solid enough TE1 hope. Adam Thielen has faded to WR3/4…and fading as we go.
Snap Counts of Interest:
51 = D Cook
17 = Mattison
78 = G Wilson
69 = Corey Davis
58 = Elijah Moore
20 = Berrios
16 = Mims
47 = Knight
28 = Ty J
09 = JRob
