2022 Week 13: Raiders 27, Chargers 20 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
The inexplicable, awful management of and coaching job being perpetrated on the L.A. Chargers rolls on here…another game they were once again handled in/outplayed in, and thus a loss to Las Vegas. LAC got a gift pick-six to start the game and then slowly got beat as the game wore on -- the Chargers did pull it to a one score deficit midway into the 4th-quarter, with a miracle TD pass, but that’s where it ended.
The Chargers are now (6-6), losers of three of their last 4 games…and VERY close to being on an 8-game losing streak. They lose to any decent team they face and barely beat the worst teams in the league, usually via a Justin Herbert miracle drive at the end of games. If the Chargers don’t fire everything related to the Brandon Staley era at season’s end, then I don’t know what we’re doing. I could argue Staley is doing a worse coaching job than Nathaniel Hackett, because Staley has Herbert helping/hiding the results look not-as-pathetic.
The Chargers have two tough games ahead, MIA-TEN, if they lose both to fall to (6-8) then they have three layups to finish out with IND-LAR-DEN, games they can win them all to get to (9-8) with wildcard hopes but I pray, for Herbert’s sake, that they stumble to a below .500 finish so they can commence with the cleaning house. Sean Payton will be their next head coach.
The Raiders were maybe the most unlucky team of the 1st-half of the NFL season…but now they’ve hit a lucky streak -- winners of three in a row, two of them in OT. They are now (5-7) and have a chance to tie/pass LAC in the standings within 2-3 weeks. The Raiders have a tough schedule ahead and are likely to finish under .500 as well, 7-8 wins in the end.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Justin Herbert (28-47 for 355 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 5-7-0) has been underperforming this season, but bumping back up lately since Keenan Allen returned. Herbert has lost several O-Linemen this season, some for the entire season at the beginning of the campaign, others go down in every other game it seems, in-game, etc. He has no time to throw on most snaps, but he’s such an unbelievable talent that he finds ways to make plays throughout the game to try and keep LAC in games…and put up some kind of numbers for FF.
On top of missing most of his line, he’s also been without his #1 and/or #2 WRs most of the season. And his top WRs aren’t really playmakers or great after-the-catch guys, so Herbert literally has to be perfect on his throws to get numbers/output. Things have improved with Keenan Allen (6-88-1/14) back, but I also see that Allen is fading away into the ‘aging out’ area of his career -- a shell of his former self. Still great hands, but no longer gets open at will -- the Raiders didn’t even try/desire and put their ace cover corner Nate Hobbs on him much because they were unconcerned about Allen…and a UDFA rookie CB (Sam Webb) and random other journeymen cover guys all worked to shut Keenan down most all game…thus the 6 catches on 14 targets/a terrible connection rate.
Herbert put a perfect pass on Keenan on a 35+ yard throw to the end zone that Allen caught one-handed…it was amazing, but also another view of Allen completely blanketed by coverage.
Herbert has no O-Line most weeks. He has bottom of the league WR/TE talent to work with, and a horrifyingly bad offensive coordinator and head coach that are no help.
I say all this to note that more than a few of us went in on Herbert as our FF QB for 2022. It made sense, he’s arguably the most talented of all the QBs in the NFL. But then he started losing all his supporting cast and still has too many of them out. Herbert is running on fumes, but those that have him in Fantasy can do nothing but roll with him and pray he pulls more miracles. There may be better #2 QB options operating in a given week, but it’s hard to bet against Hebert…he’s always hope for a monster game.
But, as a realist…there’s likely no way Herbert-led FF-teams are going to compete with the Hurts-Mahomes-Burrow-Allen crowd in the playoffs with Herbert in this mud puddle LAC offense. The rest of our FF players are going to have to rally, and hope that Herbert is good enough output not low output ahead so that we might sneak by/thru in the FF playoffs. LAC being in the wild card hunt, playing indoors a lot, and plenty of garbage time numbers to occur -- there’s some hope but hope pretty much unanswered from Herbert all season since like Weeks 3-4.
It sucks, it’s harrowing…but we have to face facts that we’re likely dead with Herbert to try and run through the FF-playoffs, there’s just too much operating against him for big output…but enough talent in Herbert to cling to that he is also filled with FF-hope/too talented to bench in most cases in any given week. Mike Williams back would be more aid to the hope, but we’re still likely to FF-die on our sword/with Herbert as our starter the next few weeks. But, if he could just get all his WRs back, his center back (maybe this week), and playing in shootouts indoors in the winter...maybe, just maybe...
We, who are about to die, salute you…
-- The LAC WR group does not excite me…Herbert-life is better with Keenan back, for sure, but I watched this tape back just focusing on him and it was sad to watch. Basically, no name corners are handling Keenan. Vegas didn’t have the dignity to put their ace shutdown corner (Hobbs) on him often. Wow. The future is not bright for Keenan, for FF/Dynasty…or, so it appears.
Joshua Palmer (7-60-0/11) is not great either but he’s competent and can catch and without Mike Williams, he’s a threat for WR2 PPR numbers.
If Mike Williams returns, then it will be Keenan-Williams with the bulk of the targets…and we might catch a ride on Big Mike because Keenan is fading off. Palmer then becomes a random WR3/4 in the mix. Gerald Everett a random TE1/2 with 20+ other TEs.
-- To wrap up the LAC side of things…
Josh Kelley (7-30-0, 0-0-0/1) is clearly the #2 RB now. He came back from his IR stint, and Isaiah Spiller petered off and now disappeared, and Sony Michel is a ghost.
I will reiterate: Josh Kelley would be an RB1, instantly, if Austin Ekeler went down and out. Kelley might be the most valuable, in the most prime spot to be launched into RB1-dom off a #1 RB injury in all of the NFL/FF. Plus, the talent is there.
He’s a great ‘last roster spot’ guy to hold…especially for those already qualified for playoffs and/or Week 14 is meaningless -- he’s someone to sit on and see if things break his way. If Ekeler went down, Kelley could change the FF dynamics for any team entering the FF playoffs…as there is always that one RB who gets pushed due to injury. No one knows who will be the great #2 RB launched to carry teams through the FF-playoffs, but Kelley is on the short list of disruptor #2 RBs to hold and hope.
-- Derek Carr (16-30 for 250 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) has essentially been as good as Justin Herbert for FF the past five weeks. You could try and run Carr out over/ahead of Herbert and hope to get lucky on matchups or just pure luck of the draw/week but if I have a choice…I hide behind Herbert because he’s so much more talented and he’s a good runner, and he’s due to have a running TD the next week or two, I can feel it. Carr doesn’t run but he is a decent passer producer.
-- Basically, Derek Carr is just throwing everything to Davante Adams (8-177-2/12), and why not? Teams never seem to be able to understand that or cover/account for it.
Occasionally, Carr will throw to his other options…and chief among them is Mack Hollins (5-35-0/9). The past three games, Hollins has averaged 5.0 rec. (7.7 targets), 50.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game…WR3 work with TD hopes any given week.
Carr misfired a couple passes to a wide-open Hollins in this game, or we would have had WR2 numbers…and Hollins was wide open in the end zone on at least one occasion, but Carr is usually tunnel visioned on Davante to notice everything else going on. But that’s where the Hollins hope comes in -- there’s so much focus on Davante that Hollins is running around wild and free, and if Carr ever decided it was a game/time to throw a wrinkle at the defense over scheming on Davante…Hollins could have a WR1 week any given week.
-- Carr is not throwing much to Foster Moreau (1-32-0/3) like I thought he might with Darren Waller gone. The past three games for Moreau: 1.7 rec. (4.3 targets)…a terrible connection rate for all three weeks…32.7 yards, and 0.33 TDs per game…a TE2, not a TE1.
Waller is supposed to be back Week 15 but use caution -- Waller seems to be in conflict with the new coaching staff. He’s missed a ton of time and no one besides Davante-Jacobs matters in this offense. Waller is not that guy from 2020 anymore.
Since 2020…
Waller was a (4/7) in 2021.
Waller has been a (1/4) in 2022 with the new regime and has missed the last 7 games/8 weeks with an injury that usually runs its course in 2-4 weeks at worst.
Combined, 2021-22, Waller is a (5/11) with 13 missed games…and counting.
-- I can’t rid myself of the nagging feeling that there is something here with this Raiders-DST…in favorable matchups now and for the future.
Nate Hobbs (8 tackles) back changes everything. CB Sam Webb (5 tackles) played better this week. The defense was energized against a very good Justin Herbert, even with all the issues.
The Vegas-DST has now held two of their last 3 opponents to 20 or less points in the game. I think D-C Patrick Graham is starting to swing this thing around. Facing the Rams this week…the Raiders are a legit option to stream. And they might be nice hosting NE Week 15, especially if they win Week 14.
Side note: Deep IDP league GMs…put UDFA rookie SAF Isaiah Pola-Mao (5 tackles, 1 sack, 2 QB hits, 13 snaps played) on a watch list. He’ll be on the new stash report update next week.
Snap Counts of Interest:
72 = Keenan
70 = Palmer
45 = D Carter
45 = Ekeler
32 = J Kelley
