2022 Week 13: Lions 40, Jaguars 14 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
Well, I called this one…early in the week leading up, back when Detroit was an initial underdog. I was incredulous that the Lions would be underdogs to Jacksonville, at Detroit no less. The smarts eventually agreed as the week went on and pushed the line to a slight Detroit favorite…and they more than covered that.
Not much to say about this game flow…the Lions are a playoff team (whether they get there or not), one of the 12-15 best teams in the NFL right now and they beat one of the 10 worst NFL teams, Jacksonville…and beat them with impunity. It was never a game, and Detroit just kept the hammer down all game.
Detroit is now (5-7), winners of four of their last 5 games…really should be 5-of-5 (that Buffalo loss was heartbreaking in OT). Really, they should be 7-5/8-4 right now and be taken much more seriously. If Detroit gets to 9 wins, then they have a real shot at a wild card. Detroit needs to win four of their next 5, and I think they will do it IF they beat Minnesota this week…and I think they will, but no guarantees. We project Detroit with 9 wins and a playoff berth but 8 wins and just missing out is just as possible.
Jacksonville is not going to the playoffs. They are (4-8) on their way to 5 wins at-best. Sorry, mainstream football media…your love of the Jags/Trevor was no match for ‘my Lions’…and deal with it, Jared Goff is better than Trevor Lawrence ever will be…and soon you’ll realize the Stafford-Goff trade was a win for Detroit, overall. But THEY’LL never admit that.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The main reason I wanted to watch this tape was to get some glimpses of Jameson Williams (0-0-0/1) in his debut, but Detroit did not really oblige…nor did they need to. Williams ran a deep sprint sideline route in the 2nd-half, the corner stuck to him, the pass was offline because JW wasn’t open…and that was it.
There wasn’t enough tape of him doing anything for me to tell you more.
I can say that based on what Detroit did here…I don’t know that he’s a MUST keep on redraft rosters because if they aren’t giving him forced touches in a beat down game, then they must not be desperate to get him up to speed ASAP. So, we’ll get like 10-20 snaps next week? Then 20-30? Then, pretty soon, the FF season/playoffs will be over.
There’s a case to hold and see another week, but there’s also a case to drop him for reality if your Week 14 is do-or-die…or otherwise. He’s more a sugar plum fairy dancing in your head at this stage.
-- The Lions didn’t push Jameson Williams at all, but they did witness a D.J. Chark (5-98-0/6) step-up in play. DJC looked good in his return last week, but he was somewhat on fire here. Good for him…but it was against weak Jacksonville, and he did have an axe to grind with his former team.
Another promising matchup this week with Minnesota for DJC in this high-flying offense. No need for Detroit to push the rookie Jameson when DJC is catching old fire!
-- Zay Jones (2-16-0/7) was on fire the previous two games, but he dropped his first two passes of this game, easy passes…and one was a walk-in TD. He just looked off the whole game. That’s not normal for him, so we won’t hold it fully against him -- a promising matchup Week 14 with a wounded Tennessee secondary.
-- D’Andre Swift (14-62-1, 4-49-0/6) had his first heavy touch game in many-many weeks. I think it was a function of the Lions jumping all over the Jags, so why not give Jamaal Williams (11-35-1) a break? Not that Swift goes back to nothing next week, but he’s been used as the mild relief RB for several weeks behind Jamaal, I assume that’s still the plan in tight games.
-- Jared Goff (31-41 for 340 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is FF-heating back up, now that his schedule is easing up. Back-to-back 2 TD pass games. Three of their last 4 games scoring 30 or more points. The Lions have the #6 scoring offense in the league. Goff is really good, as we’ve stated time and time again in the face of the media trying to bench him or replace him via the draft, still.
Favorable matchup with MIN Week 14, then not a good time with NYJ Week 15.
-- Same old Trevor Lawrence (17-31 for 179 yards, 1 TD/0 INT)…good enough between the 20s with quick/short passing but flopping when closer to the goal line or on 3rd-downs (3-of-12)…any tight/tough situations.
Trevor’s flop was also about how good the Detroit defense is getting…three of their last 5 games holding opponents to 18 points or fewer. Weeks 15-16 against NYJ-CAR might be something…especially Week 16 at CAR.
-- Travis Etienne (13-54-0, 3-12-0/3) was supposed to be this big receiving game back in 2022…but he has not caught more than 3 passes in any game and has not gone over 43 yards receiving in a game, usually under 20 yards receiving in any game, and no receiving TDs.
Etienne began the season (0/4), splitting with James Robinson.
Then Etienne went off with JRob gone, a (4/1) after his first 4 weeks of duds.
However, he’s an (0/3) the last games since the (4/1) stretch (injured early in one of them).
TEN-DAL-NYJ the next 3 weeks isn’t looking FF-great either.
-- Jags rookie ILB Chad Muma’s (11 tackles, 2 TFLs) had his second start here and was good…10.0 tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 1.0 QB hits per game in his two starts.
Snap Counts of Interest:
39 = Swift
23 = Jamaal W
16 = JJax
49 = Etienne
04 = Snoop
58 = Muma
22 = Lloyd
