2022 Week 13: Bills 24, Patriots 10 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
The media seems to be shocked by this outcome, but I was not…not at all. One of my top bets/picks of the week was Buffalo and laying minimal points. Why? Because Buffalo is sagging a bit but also had been playing good teams, but they really got dinged with the public when they barely beat Detroit on a national holiday game…and because the public is duped by an at-sleep media, a media who has no clue how good Detroit is/has been lately this season and a media who doesn’t like Detroit or Jared Goff as pre-wiring in their brains right now, thus the close Week 12 game with BUF-DET is seen as a tragedy for the Bills. When in reality, the Lions are one of the 15 best teams in the NFL.
On the other hand, the Patriots got way too much credit for beating Zach Wilson, Sam Ehlinger, Zach Wilson in-a-row and the Pats having some general clout (that Detroit doesn’t) with the media/public…so New England ‘feels’ better than they are. We judged that the Patriots’ little midseason win streak was a fraud, and that they were walking into a buzzsaw with Buffalo this game.
With the public still hot on the Patriots, and down on the Bills, we got a lower point spread and many picking New England at home…and then reality struck -- the Patriots were never really in this game, the gap of talent too obvious. The Bills led 24-7 late into the 4th-quarter and a late field goal gave us the 24-10 ending. The Patriots had a 7-3 lead early, but it was just a temporary event because the better team then put the hammer down and had the Patriots bending to their will.
The Patriots are OVER…not only now but for the next several years, and they’ll lose Belichick and really spiral into a dark decade. No player with options wants to go to New England or Green Bay to play football/live with their families out of the big cities and in the freezing cold. The Pats are now (6-6) and gonna finish with 7-8 wins, with a long shot chance at 9 wins and some wild card hope.
The Bills took care of business and jumped to (9-3) with a monster rematch vs. the Jets Week 14. Buffalo projects to finish with 12-13 wins and a likely AFC East title and a shot at the #1 seed.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Did we just see the Buffalo Bills backfield get hijacked by rookie James Cook (14-64-0, 6-41-0/6)?
Yes. Kinda. Maybe. Not really.
I’ve been discussing, for months, the inexplicability of why the Bills weren’t pushing Cook in the passing game all along -- that he was starting to show promise as a runner, but if they just made him into the pass game weapon he was billed as coming out of Georgia…then the Bills have a real weapon for the playoffs on their hands. Well, there was a mild sign of this turn (to Cook in the pass game) Week 12 but it took a big jump here Week 13…6 targets (and 6 catches). This expectation/hope was why he was still our top ‘deep sleeper’ rostering off waivers last week, after a dud Week 12 output.
Not only did Cook have a big leap in the pass game, but he also out-carried Devin Singletary (13-51-1, 0-0-0/2) out of nowhere, and played about the same snaps (33/32 = DS/Cook). All ‘firsts’ this season.
I think the Bills are discovering that Cook is the better all-around, with the ball in his hands, running back for the offense. But that doesn’t mean Cook’s the new lead RB…because they also know Singletary is the most experienced/reliable RB they have. And what that means is, they can now join the wave/trend of teams using/rotating two RBs to keep them fresh and play hot hands and situational football.
We’re moving to a Cook RB2/3 run, in PPR especially, and Singletary as an RB3/4 the dull part of the duo.
-- New England has ditched their RB-duo in favor of Belichick lovechild Rhamondre Stevenson (10-54-0, 6-24-0/8). I’m a strong believer in Stevenson, now…now that I know how much Belichick loves him (learned that last week, thanks to Jason Garrett). But I will note this was the worst game I’ve seen him play…he looked unfocused and dropped two passes he should have had to pad numbers, and one of them a nice 20+ yard TD…just gaffed.
Despite that Stevenson is an RB1 projection the ROS.
-- I knew Mac Jones (22-36 for 195 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) would struggle here, and he did. Mac is just not that good…I don’t care that he beat up the Vikings XFL-level corners on Thanksgiving. The Bills still have a good secondary/defense even though it’s banged up.
Mac is a backup QB talent, not a franchise QB. Big decision on Mac (vs. Zappe) for the Patriots in 2023.
-- You know what my favorite moment of this game was, if you subscribed to CFM…the 48-yard catch-and-run TD by rookie CORNERBACK Marcus Jones (2-51-1/2).
One of the reasons we ranked him so highly for Dynasty Rookie Draft purposes was the potential of him as a solid CB but also an ace return man and possible usage as a WR weapon, and…ta-da.
One of the reasons we graded him as a top 10-20 overall NFL Draft prospect was that he is a really good slot corner, he’ll be a Pro Bowl slot corner someday + he’s ace returnman (6 KR, 3 PR TDs in his college career) + he can play offense as a receiver.
I dubbed Marcus Jones ‘Tyreek Hill playing Cornerback’ in my scouting reports for a reason. You really should get a CFM subscription…pretty amazing scouting going on there! CFM subscribers of the past…you’re going to get a treat in 2023. More news on that when we get closer to CFM time/mid-January.
Will the Pats keep exploring Jones as a weapon on offense? You’d think. I just wish he’d play more on defense. He did play a career high 34 (45%) snaps on defense this game, so we might be about to launch. Imagine an IDP DB who gets 3-6 tackles a game, good PDs/picks ability (with hot pick-six ability) + he’s terrific in the return game + gets some touches on offense.
Me and my friend Belichick saw it ahead of the pack.
-- DST notes…
The Bills-DST had been struggling until this improved performance, but just like the Patriots run a few weeks ago…credit Mac Jones/the Pats offensive ineptitude more than anything else. But do note Tre’Davious White played 61% of the snaps here…a big boost.
The Patriots-DST has been exposed as a fraud. I wanted everyone to dump/replace them after the 2nd Jets game…but some held on. They were on our ‘Quit’ list this week. There’s not a good matchup the rest of the way. There’s no asset value here for the rest of 2022. Arizona Week 14 might seem like an opportunity, but if the Vikings could roll this defense (like they did on Thanksgiving)…Arizona can too.
Snap Counts of Interest:
53 = Rh Stevenson
01 = Kevin Harris
47 = DeVante Parker
31 = Jakobi
30 = Agholor
21 = Tyquan
20 = Bourne
47 = H Henry
17 = Jonnu
33 = Singletary
32 = J Cook
23 = Hines
