DFS Week 13: Player/Stack/Avoid Pitch for the $1M+ Open Tournaments
Andrew Duhan, better known as ‘Andrew DFS’, is a serious DFS player and is the most expert player I (RC) know. He gives us weekly DFS advice for main slate’s every week. Here are some of his picks and avoids for this week…
QB Stack
The two highest owned QBs on this slate are projected to be Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow. The DET vs JAC and CIN vs KC matchups have the two highest game totals this week. Both QBs should come in under 15% making them OK for tournament plays.
Detroit’s defense has been improving over the past few weeks and could give Lawrence problems on the road. On the flip side, Burrow is a home underdog in a game that could turn into a shootout. Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff are other good options from these matchups that come with a lower ownership projection.
Despite Burrow having the highest ownership projection, he’s my tournament pick this week. CIN RB Joe Mixon may not clear the concussion protocol in time for the game and star WR Ja’Marr Chase is expected to be back in the line-up. I would pair up Burrow with WR Tee Higgins and consider the following Chiefs players as bring-back pieces: RB Isiah Pacheco, TE Travis Kelce, and WR Juju Smith-Schuster.
Although the Bengals have an excellent run defense, their strategy may be to force KC to beat them on the ground. In their playoff matchup last year, the Bengals played a ton of two high coverage and only sent three pass rushers after Mahomes. If Cincinnati tries to deploy a similar strategy, the Chiefs need to run the ball in order to win this game.
Mid-Range
Three rookie wide receivers are good mid-range plays this week: GB WR Christian Watson, NYJ WR Garrett Wilson, and PIT WR George Pickens. All three players have salaries in the low D$5,000 range. Wilson is projected to be the highest owned receiver this week which is expected given his low price and performance against the Bears last week. Out of the three, I would go with Watson since he draws the Bears defines that Wilson torched. Chicago also lost star safety Eddie Jackson last week which will be a boost for the Packers passing attack.
Cheap play of the week
My cheap play of the week is RB Zonovan Knight (D$4,600). I expect Knight’s ownership projection to trend upwards (current below 15%) before Sunday. Knight is slated to lead the Jets backfield after a good performance last week and Michael Carter’s injury. As long as Knight’s projected ownership percentage is less than 20%, I’m comfortable playing him in large pool contests in order to allocate more funds for higher priced (and less chalky) players.
Fade of the week
Fading players with a high ownership percentage only has downside risk. If the chalky player has an explosive performance, then there is minimal advantage gained over the pool. On the other hand, if the chalky player lays an egg, then the chances of winning a large pool is slim to none. There is a reason why players have a high ownership projection, the matchup might be favorable and/or the player’s salary is relatively low.
Of all the players that have an ownership projection greater than 20 percent, the player I would choose to fade is JAC WR Zay Jones (D$4,900). Jones had an excellent performance last week which explains the higher projection this week. I don’t feel great about Trevor Lawrence going into Detroit especially given the Lions defensive improvements over the past few weeks.
Good luck with your lineups this week!
