2022 Week 12: Panthers 23, Broncos 10 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
Two of the worst teams in football played a game, and one of them won. Strike that last part…one of them dominated, kinda, the other…or played a much less worse game than the other. However it is that you want to slice it, the Panthers smacked the Broncos around in this game where Denver was the road favorite!
This game was 23-3 with 4 minutes remaining, and Carolina had just locked out the Broncos on four downs from 1st & goal, but a roughing the passer call on the 4th-down gave Denver a couple more cracks at it to get the score to 23-10. This was a 23-3 beatdown, in reality.
Denver falls to (3-8) as the Nathaniel Hackett era is in full effect. They won’t fire Hackett now…there’s no reason to. More losses are good for business at this point. He will be fired about 5 minutes after the final game ends this season. They should fire him now to get a jump on the coaching search, but I’m guessing they won’t be savvy enough to do that…because it then looks even worse for the GM/management admitting their colossal error. It’s like when teams losing 40-0 nothing in the 4th-quarter kick a field goal for the moral victory of ‘not getting shutout’. There is no moral victory in that AT ALL, but THEY think it is…they think they are conning fans and critics, and boosting the players with such nonsense -- so it continues to happen…doing dumb things that have no meaning/trying somehow not to look bad for a bad decision that everyone knows is a bad decision. Wouldn’t you have more respect for the GM if he fired the going-to-be-fired head coach now? Denver might win one more game this year.
Carolina wins to get to (4-8)…and more importantly to stay a game out of the 1st place group in the NFC South. Carolina is still very much in this race…because the division is so awful, and NO the Bucs aren’t going to pull away at the end because of Brady. The South will be won with 7-8 wins, and if Carolina gets into that tie scenario down the stretch…they play at TB and at NO the final two weeks, and they’ve already beaten both of them this season. One or both of Carolina’s final two games could be ‘for the division’. Carolina has some control over winning this division.
I can’t imagine Carolina pulling out the division title because of their awful QB and stiff head coach, but the NFC South is a collection of some of the worst head coaches in the NFL…so, anything is possible. Carolina really has the division title/their season, in their control.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I want to start with Russell Wilson (19-35 for 142 yards, 1 TD/0 INT)…
I can’t tell you if he’s playing ‘good’ football but is being dragged down by the surroundings…or if he’s really ‘fading away’, as a talent, along with the bad surroundings -- but we can all see the output is terrible, and not improving.
In this particular game, credit a good Panthers defense…combined with a Denver O-Line that cannot protect the QB well (our internal worst O-Line pass protection grades/metrics are DEN, NYG, and CHI). But I still cannot tell if this is ALL the O-Line forcing Russell to be jumpy…or if Russ is becoming a nervous-to-be-hit QB, so he is throwing the ball quick and has no time/not taking the time for deeper things to develop.
Wilson has 8 TD passes in 10 games and has a career low 58.9% Comp. Pct. -- I think some part of this HAS to be on Wilson’s shoulders. I mean, he could just dump everything safe and collect some garbage time with a high Comp. Pct., but he doesn’t even do that well anymore.
I have no faith in Russ, and the impact he has on the WRs/TEs for FF. I have faith that I want to consider every one of his opposing defenses/DSTs the rest of the season. And the Chiefs-DST gets this mess in Weeks 14 and 17.
-- Who is Russ parceling out his meager numbers to?
It’s kinda-sorta Courtland Sutton (6-75-0/8), but I maintain my same stance from my summer report…Sutton’s time/style is past and he’s a very weak #1 WR. He cannot get open well…he’s not a burner/blazer and he’s not big enough to be an amazing ‘go get it guy’. He’s a very average WR talent in 2022…but gets pushed as ‘the guy’. It doesn’t help Russ.
Russ throws to Sutton almost because he has no other choice. In this game, he barely went to Sutton until later in the 1st-half during a hurry up session and then junk-time late. Sutton is Donovan Peoples-Jones-ing right now…good catches (5.7 per game the past 3 weeks), good yards (76.3 per game the past 3 weeks), no TDs. You’re getting your 10-14 PPR points, but not much hope at an explosive game. He’s still capable of it as the lead targeted WR but he’s not showing any hope of an upside week and man it does not look good on tape at all. Guys like Peoples-Jones, Darius Slayton…they look a lot better than Sutton, on tape.
-- The target leader in this game was actually Kendall Hinton (5-35-0/9), who was getting targets early and often in this contest. Hinton looks polished and in good sync with Russ, as I alluded was happening back in training camp. As long as terrible Jerry Jeudy is out, Hinton is gonna be a 4-6 catch in a game guy. In this game, Hinton had a catch and run just shy of the goal line/a TD…and also misjudged an easy 15+ yard catch late…those two events had him just miss a 6-50-1/9 line that might have gotten people’s attention.
Good matchup for both Sutton and Hinton this week at Baltimore…if Russ can take advantage of it. If Jeudy is back, call off any dogs on Hinton.
-- The Greg Dulcich (2-11-0/3) fade continues…2.3 catches for 17.3 yards per game his last three games. Dulcich is fine/solid, but this offense is not helping anyone. Still, among the 20+ TE1/2 candidates each week…Dulcich is one, still.
-- For some reason rookie UDFA WR Brandon Johnson (2-10-1/4) is getting a mild push but rookie UDFA Jalen Virgil is more intriguing/talented (but raw), but gets no push here. They tried to get rookie Montrell Washington (1-1-0, 1-0-0/3) going right away but it went nowhere, so they abandoned it, stupidly. Washington could open up that offense with bubble screens, etc., a knock-off Tyreek Hill -- but if you think this Denver staff has any clue of what they’re doing or where the opportunities lie…
-- Re-watching this game, I was in mild amazement watching Latavius Murray (13-92-0, 1-6-0/1) working this game…he looks really good, especially when you consider he’s going to turn 33 years old in January.
Like I opined about this summer -- we have to rewire or delete all our thoughts about player’s skill set declines and ‘age’ because between the modern workout regimens and new technologies and advanced supplements and stem cell boosts…none of us knows the real ‘age’/ability of any player anymore. How the hell is Tom Brady still a top QB at 45+ years old? He’s certainly better than either of the two QBs in this game are…or ever were.
Yet, older players (or just 3rd-4th year in the league and beyond) are almost always on discount sale in FF…while youth is coveted/at a premium, especially ‘draft picks’ (in Dynasty…or in the NFL). You can win FF with non-rookies/2nd-year players (breathe into a paper bag, it will be OK to consider this).
More on this emerging ‘age’ and ‘performance’ relationship conundrum all offseason with FFM. But I get credit for thinking of it first, remember that when all the big-name journalists start writing about it in 2-5 years.
One other RB note for Denver: Marlon Mack (2-7-0, 1-5-0/1) got a few touches here. He looks very quick/ready to go if needed. If Murray goes down right now, Mack is taking over…for whatever that is worth. However, Mike Boone is soon to return and he’d probably be pushed ahead of, or with, Mack.
-- Same old Sam Darnold (11-19 for 164 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 3-3-1)…and it was just what they needed in this game. The Panthers got the lead and then Darnold went into game manager mode, and they whacked a weak Denver team.
Darnold is still jumpy, inconsistent the deeper the throw/the longer he has to sit in the pocket…but he runs a decent/clean short game and he didn’t hurt his team here and got the victory.
-- For Carolina, it was heavy D’Onta Foreman (24-113-0) as the key to victory…and he continues to be one of the best pure RBs that I watch every single week, back to his late 2021 run…and he still gets no respect from the public AND he’ll get dispatched to an NFL backup in 2023 when the new coach drafts some hot SEC rookie RB. For the price, I would rather have Foreman 100x over, as an NFL GM, than Christian McCaffrey. If I wanted a WR at RB, I’d sign David Johnson to pair with D’Onta.
Foreman was really terrific here with Denver knowing he was Carolina’s lead punch, and only punch.
Chuba Hubbard (17-65-0) with a ton of carries here…they came mostly late game when it was out of hand, and they were trying to (do the right thing) relieve Foreman from taking useless touches. Carolina has a division to try and win! If they somehow win it, it will be because Foreman led the way.
-- Sam Darnold in…D.J. Moore (4-103-1/6) gets the bulk of the targets and everyone else is a nobody, including former emerging weapon Terrace Marshall (1-8-0/3) who is relegated to forgotten WR2 hope now down to a WR3/4 flier you hope Darnold discovers at some point, but even then…Darnold is a short thrower and a low volume guy…except he will take shots at DJM when he needs to go downfield. Marshall is kinda screwed with Darnold at the helm, but maybe Sam will discover him in their practices the next week or two.
-- DST notes…
Points allowed by the Panthers-DST in games their last three weeks: 15-13-10.
Hard to trust them in an upcoming Seattle or Pittsburgh matchup (Weeks 14-15) but it won’t be an easy road for those offenses either. Carolina is playing small ball on offense and running a pretty tough, improving defense with very good+ cover corners.
The Denver-DST has held opponents to under 20 points in eight of their 11 games this season…but their last two opponents have both gone over 20, Las Vegas (22) and Carolina (23). The Denver offense struggles to help their defense and missing slot corner K’Waun Williams has really hurt the past two games. It would not be good for the Ravens (their Wk13 opponent) if Williams came back this week…and he might.
Snap Counts of Interest:
64 = DJM
41 = T Marshall
28 = Shenault
35 = D Foreman
28 = Hubbard
03 = Blackshear
56 = Sutton
55 = Hinton
42 = Brandon Johnson
07 = Montrell Williams
49 = Latavius
06 = M Mack
