2022 Week 12: Chargers 25, Cardinals 24 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
Let me convey something from my world, to kick us off here…me in my office 10+ hours a day watching live and on-tape football all week, eating sunflower seeds and drinking Diet Sprite and coffee for sustenance…My worldview is: the current Arizona Cardinals team stinks, as an NFL team.
It’s not all the player’s fault…they’ve had mass injuries on the O-Line, plus lost Zach Ertz, and were down their best defensive player this game (CB Byron Murphy). But they also have a terrible head coach and a childish QB. They are not a good team at this point in the season.
This broken down, empty Arizona team raced right out to a 10-0 lead in this game…as the Chargers could barely move the ball. If you think Arizona is poorly coached, you haven’t seen anything like the (awful) coaching job of the Chargers’ staff. Totally stymied right off the bat here.
Midway through the 2nd-quarter, the Chargers got going and the game became back & forth, mostly controlled by the Cardinals…but on the final drive, the miracle maker Justin Herbert, pulled a rabbit from his hat with under two-minutes remaining, and led a TD drive with 0:15 left…and then they went for the win/went for two -- and they converted it, and pulled a win out.
This win shouldn’t have needed to be so miraculous against Arizona…unless you’re the Chargers. That’s what I want to convey here -- the Chargers are worse than the Cardinals, except Herbert is so much better than Kyler. Don’t be surprised if the Raiders thump LAC Week 13.
The Chargers steal a win to get to (6-5). They are likely headed to a (9-8) season and just missing a wild card and then they can fire the coaching staff and upgrade with Sean Payton in 2023. The WORST thing that could happen to the L.A. Chargers franchise is making the playoffs and retaining their current coaching staff.
Arizona falls to (4-8), on their way to maybe 5-6 wins…and then a mystery offseason -- they may fire the head coach, or he may quit for a high paying college gig, and they may try to trade Kyler. Or they might just stand pat and take nine months of media criticism. A potential crazy offseason in Arizona ahead.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Chargers had somewhat of an excuse for being sloppy in this game…the came in down O-Linemen from bad injuries early season, then lost another starter going into this game (injury), but then lost two OLs in-game, including their great center…and then Justin Herbert (35-47 for 274 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 4-38-0) didn’t have near the time he usually does.
I mention this to comment… Herbert is amazing, but he’s getting figuratively crushed by his dilapidated O-Line. It’s going to cost many of us (Herbert owners) FF playoffs or titles because Herbert has awful blocking, awful play calling, and slow-ass, sucky WRs…and it all caps/suppresses what should be top 1-2-3 QB FF scoring upside every week. What Herbert is doing to even put-up the kind of numbers he did here is minor-miraculous.
Those that own Herbert…we’re stuck with our ride-or-die, because he is so good he’s capable of weeks like this every week. Helps that the team he played is pathetic this game…that’s what worries me ahead when he doesn’t have a weak opponent to face.
-- Justin Herbert found something with DeAndre Carter (7-73-1/10) and just rode it all game. Herbert had to get rid of the ball quick to make up for the battered O-Line, so 29 of 47 throws went to Carter and the RBs.
Keenan Allen (5-49-1/7) has not gotten back to the action with a huge splash. He’s been OK but not the mega WR1 in to save the day making crazy plays all over. Josh Palmer (5-56-0/7) was the star in Keenan’s return Week 11, then Carter was the star here in Week 12. It just helps having Keenan get the coverage attention.
-- When you play Arizona, everyone knows how bad they are stopping the TE. Teams face them and have specific plans to exploit this weakness right away. So, it stands to reason that the Chargers would NOT do that…they’d not throw to Gerald Everett (4-18-0/4) for a while into the game, with no direct plan of attack, and barely use him all game…but he did get the two-point conversion catch for the win.
If you can’t get a good game out of Everett against Arizona…when can you get one ahead with him?
-- I think I can tell you ‘the problem’ with Kyler Murray (18-29 for 191 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT)… It’s not that he’s a bad QB now…it’s that he’s losing public sentiment and momentum and losing games. Otherwise, he’s playing about the same level of football, FF-production-wise, as he has most of his NFL career. In fact, his production has been slightly ticking upward since DeAndre Hopkins returned.
A career retrospect…
2019: Nice production for a rookie, even with early rookie struggles he still put-up numbers. The #11 scoring PPG QB (4pts per pass TD) in FF.
2020: A breakout year, everyone was excited. 11 rushing TDs. Led Arizona to a .500 record. Was the #3 PPG scoring QB in FF.
2021: Undefeated most of the first half the season, an MVP candidate. Got hurt, team started losing, production tailed way off. Arizona backed into the playoffs. The #4 scoring PPG QB in FF.
2022 (YTD): The social media nonsense to start the calendar year. The contract demands. The eventual contract that demanded he do his job/homework. Became a quasi-laughingstock. The worst record of his career. Currently the #7 PPG scoring QB in FF.
Kyler is still producing FF-numbers. And had his O-Line stayed intact, and they had Hopkins-Brown-Ertz-Conner most or all season -- maybe Kyler is a top 3-5 FF QB again and Arizona is challenging in the NFC West? With a strong/garbage-time-type finish or rise with Hopkins-Brown
We (the public) don’t like QBs who are on teams losing NFL games. We were all turned off by everything that transpired in the offseason. Kyler is now known more for that ill-fated homework contract clause and ‘playing too many video games’ than he is for his on-field play.
But in the end, Kyler’s gonna have about the same numbers/rankings in FF as he has had the past few years. I’d say this is a ‘buy low’ moment/offseason taking advantage of the sentiment but if Arizona moves off Kliff Kingsbury, or he leaves, this offseason -- that’s a big problem for Kyler. Murray has had the same offense his whole life and total freedom with non-disciplinarian Kliff…a coaching change would likely bring the opposite of Kliff…a defensive taskmaster, and a new offense, and Kyler would be the type QB/personality who gruff head coaches will hate, and then Kyler will pout/rebel and it will be a cluster.
Kyler with Kliff = good for FF.
Kyler with about any other coach walking the planet = high potential for issues.
-- It’s only one game/piece of evidence, but Kyler + Hopkins + Brown for the first time here produced…
Marquise Brown (6-46-0/8) as the target leader here, as my theory on what would happen with the new duo would be -- Brown as a target leader because he’s Kyler’s BFF and it’s coming up on Brown contract time…and Kyler wants his BFF paid and staying with Arizona. I expect a lot of 6-8 catch games for Brown to finish out the season…remember how many catches Rondale or Dortch were getting week-to-week this season as ‘#2’ options?
DeAndre Hopkins (4-87-1/6) will still get his looks, and maybe be the TD leader among the WRs -- but Hopkins could be moving on after this season, so Kyler isn’t as motivated to push Hopkins all the easy junk like he will Brown. But Hopkins will still be fine. He’s been FF-great in his return.
-- Someone who didn’t cash in on the Hopkins-Brown duo debuting: rookie TE Trey McBride (1-1-0/3). This was McBride’s debut as a starter/main TE working with Kyler (not McCoy), and it was an Andy Isabella event. It’s only one game, but ‘message received’.
-- James Conner’s (25-120-0, 3-20-1/3) last three games, since returning back to full health…
20.0 carries, 77.0 yards rushing, 2.7 catches, 16.3 rec. yards, 1.33 TDs per game.
He is definitely back to the main man in the Arizona backfield. Facing the sad Chargers run defense, this game output was a nice rushing effort boost. Tougher run defense schedule ahead: BYE-NE-DEN-TB.
Snap Counts of Interest:
64 = Conner
07 = K Ingram
52 = McBride
17 = Maxx W
12 = Stph Anderson
63 = Palmer
59 = Keenan
53 = DeAndre Carter
02 = Bandy
46 = Ekeler
14 = Kelley
08 = Spiller
38 = Everett
26 = McKitty
