2022 Week 12: 49ers 13, Saints 0 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
The narrative post-game: Wow, how great are the 49ers! They shut out the Saints…because they Christian McCaffrey now, and that makes their defense immutable somehow, and also means they’re the NFC favorites for the Super Bowl!
I bet the Panthers wish they had some of that CMC magic over the years.
The post-game tape study by RC message: The Saints were as-good/the better team here and should’ve/could’ve won…and if you think the Saints are ‘just OK’ then the 49ers are also ‘just OK’ -- and if the Saints go and beat the Bucs in Week 13, and they will…then the Saints are probably going to go on to win the sad NFC South.
This game was a slugfest on both sides. The Saints had a million different things go wrong this game…every bounce seemed to go the wrong way, every tipped pass, every near-interception, every BS penalty…and, yet, they went toe-to-toe with the vaunted 49ers. The 49ers caught enough breaks to win it.
The Saints are about as good as the 49ers, but the Saints are playing minus several key pieces due to injury...while the 49ers went into the game pretty clean. So, if you want to put the 49ers on a pedestal…then note the Saints are a pretty good/dangerous team. The alternative is…the Saints are just a scrappy, mediocre team…then so-to are the 49ers, and thus NOT the class of the NFC -- keep that in mind if/when SF goes and loses to Miami this week, and then for the showdown with Seattle for the NFC West in Week 15 (if Miami didn’t have injury devastation to their O-Line this week, I would guarantee a Miami win over SF).
The 49ers win to catch Seattle atop the NFC West at (7-4). The 49ers have one win over a current playoff qualifying team (beat Seattle) this season and a collection of wins over teams with 4 or less victories on the season. I’m sure the 49ers will make the playoffs in the NFC, but they are not the class of the NFC. I can feel it in my football-study bones…I’ve felt something is not right with the public perception of this team for several weeks. Beating the Rams 2x, Carolina, and the Cardinals doesn’t impress me. SF will get to 10-11 wins and likely the NFC West title, but they have to beat Seattle Week 15 to do it -- and they will enter that game with the lesser NFL QB in the Year of Our Lord 2022.
The Saints fall to (4-8), but still just a win off the NFC South lead. I think the Saints are very flighty and mediocre, but they have had horrible injury issues all season and they are a scrappy defense -- and among all the garbage teams in the NFC South, the Saints are probably the best overall team (today) given all the Bucs mounting injuries. I do believe the Saints will whack Tompa Bay this week and then there’s an easy path to (7-10), and that could win them the division with help from the dreadful other teams. Eight wins possible. 5-6 wins and dying off is possible. It’s not over for the Saints yet…Week 13 is their season.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The big FF news from this game was the injury (again) to Elijah Mitchell (7-35-0, 2-8-0/2). He’s gone for the rest of the season. That Mitchell injury overshadows Christian McCaffrey’s (11-32-0, 4-17-0/6) knee ‘aggravation' that he’s day-to-day on.
Mitchell is a luxury the 49ers could afford to lose…but the CMC situation is trickier. It’s a big game against Miami this week for SF but rolling out CMC to a possible further knee issue could ruin their season/title hopes…but the 49ers don’t have such a great record where they can afford to lose any game right now.
It’s very possible CMC either sits this week…or plays a limited/protected role. If Mitchell were still healthy, the 49ers could lean on him and hold back CMC. Now, they have a dilemma. It looks like CMC is going to play but the 49ers will hold their breath every touch…and as soon as they can pull CMC to the sidelines (with a big lead or big deficit) they will.
Who is the new #2 RB?
Likely, it’s the experienced/trusted Tevin Coleman…who would come up from the practice squad. If CMC is out, Coleman would likely be the main back/starter.
However, Jordan Mason (5-25-0) was trusted (a bit) to run the final drive/run the clock to secure the victory in this game. Mason looks a little more confident now than he did a few weeks ago. I think it will be a 65/35 split Coleman/Mason, if CMC ever goes out…but if it were to happen Weeks 13-14-15, it would be the 49ers coaching staff hoping they can ride the younger Mason to not overburden Coleman, and it might be a 50/50 touch count…that’s if CMC hits a major problem.
Tyrion Davis-Price is an option but not one the 49ers seem to think is better than Mason recently.
-- The Saints did use Taysom Hill (6-13-0, 0-1 passing, 1-7-0/2) more this game, a season high 49% of the offensive snaps, but to dreadful results. The Saints do the same thing over-and-over with Hill that defenses are prepared/not fooled now, and it has gone nowhere for several weeks…after being one of the hottest things on football a couple games earlier in the season.
It could just be the 49ers’ run defense is good and they stacked the Saints and dared them to have Andy Dalton beat them…thus the Alvin Kamara (7-13-0, 6-37-0/7) terrible rushing tally.
It won’t get any easier with the Bucs this week.
Did you know Kamara only has 2 TDs this season and is a (4/6) in quality starts…on an (0/4) run his last 4 games, after a 42+ point PPR explosion Week 6?
-- Juwan Johnson (0-0-0/2) got a shutout here…and that big fat zero cost a few FFMers, including me, some games Week 12.
Regardless, he’s still a TE1 threat each week. The 49ers have as good a TE defense as there is in the NFL the past 2-3 years. One of Johnson’s targets was in the end zone, and he had his hands on a score but it got batted away/he couldn’t hold on.
JJ is a (3/3) his last 6 games. You could do worse. OK matchup with Tampa this week.
-- Saints LB Kaden Elliss (13 tackles) has been filling in for the injured Pete Werner…and I’m not so sure Werner will get that job back when he’s healthy. Elliss has been really good the past 3 weeks as a starter for Werner -- 10.7 tackles, 0.67 TFLs, 0.83 sacks, 0.33 PDs per game with 12 and 13 tackles in the past two games.
Elliss is an athletic talent who has been pushed more as a pass rusher but playing a traditional LB role suits him very well.
-- Notes on these two DSTs…
The 49ers-DST is definitely a top FF DST, but I do believe we should be a bit skeptical on just how good. They have handled the Rams-Chargers (no Allen-Williams downtrodden LAC offense)-Cardinals (McCoy/McSorley) and now mediocre (at best) Saints. When they faced a top offense recently, KC, they got throttled, giving up 44 points…and not 50+ because KC let up at the end. But to be fair, the 49ers were all banged up then too.
It will be a test for SF-DST, at relative full strength versus Miami Week 13…and Miami might be rocked with their two best OLs out (Armstead, Jackson).
The Saints-DST was really tough in this game too…halting this SF offense with no Marshon Lattimore, among other starters out. If the Saints get Lattimore back, Tom Brady and their nonexistent O-Line will be in for a rude awakening Week 13…they might be in trouble even if Lattimore is not back.
Snap Counts of Interest:
38 = Kamara
17 = Ingram
01 = Dw Washington
35 = Trautman
28 = Taysom
27 = Juwan Johnson
