2022 Week 12: Dolphins 30, Texans 15 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)

It was a Miami barrage…30-0 at halftime, and the Texans were lucky it wasn’t more than that. The Dolphins did whatever they wanted on offense, for the most part, and Houston could barely run a play. In the 2nd-half, early, Miami pulled key starters (like Tua, Tyreek, Waddle, Wilson) and went with backups…a bit too soon. Suddenly, with the gift of floundering Miami backups, Houston cut the lead to 30-15, a two-score lead, with 9 minutes remaining. Houston stopped Miami’s backup offense (including some re-injection of Wilson and Tyreek and Waddle but not Tua) and got the ball back a couple times to nearly close it to a one score game, and Houston even got down into the red zone with a few minutes remaining, but Miami held them out of the end zone for the 30-15 win.

I’m not sure what Mike McDaniel was thinking, but it goes to show that 30-0 leads at halftime aren’t secure…almost no lead is secure in the modern-day NFL. McDaniel should know that from their miracle 4th-quarter 21-point deficit comeback on Baltimore back in Week 2. But starters v. starters, this was a joke of a game that is further evidence Lovie Smith is a terrible head coach in this era, as he was terrible at suddenly-better-now-that-Lovie-is-gone Illinois in college for several years, and he needs to be a one-and-done for Houston, but he won’t be.

Houston falls to (1-9-1) and are playing worse football as they go. The career of Davis Mills has been ruined at the hands of the new staff. The local Houston fans aren’t into this team at all. The players, especially on offense, aren’t into it either. It’s a mess. I think the Texans fans might rally to come boo Deshaun Watson Week 13…but maybe not. I’m not sure there’s enough people left in the Houston area that would want to sit through watching the sad Texans just to boo Watson. They’d want to boo the Texans too, so a man can only boo at a football game so long. Houston will maybe get one more win to finish with the #1 pick in the NFL Draft most likely.

Miami is now (8-3), first place in the AFC East…the best team in a very tough AFC East. Tough schedule ahead, but everything is within their control facing Buffalo, NYJ, and NE in the weeks ahead. Week 13 at SF is going to be a measuring stick. At a minimum, Miami will go (11-6) and be a wild card. But a strong chance at (12-5) and a division title…and a shot at 13 wins and a run at a #1 seed isn’t totally ruled out.

*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.

A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The biggest scouting item, for me, in this game was getting a look at new starting QB Kyle Allen (26-39 for 315 yards, 1 TD/2 INT).

The best way I can try and say it (scouting Allen here) is…he’s another one of these competent enough backup level QBs who can jump in and hold down a fort/try and not lose a game…he’s in the Taylor Heinicke, Mike White, Marcus Mariota, Cooper Rush, Jacoby Brissett vein.

Used to be, most backup QBs would come into playing time and be immediate targets to go after for your opposing DST and an instant slash down of the surrounding WR-TE-RBs weapons for FF. Now, these experienced backups come in and play competent, safe football. Allen is in that vein, but he’s also in the worst situation of the QBs that I just listed above…a terrible O-Line, offensive coaching staff/plan.

So, Allen looked totally fine, comfortable, and in control here -- but in the 1st-half he was under pass rush assault constantly and didn’t have time to set and throw. When he did have time, he looked pretty good/solid actually.

I guess my message is: Allen is not a disaster…the Texans offense is. Nothing looked any different for Houston with Allen versus Davis Mills. Actually, I thought Allen was more aggressive and energetic than the passive, milquetoast Mills.

 -- Who did Kyle Allen prefer to throw to (and does it even matter)?

Off the bat, it seemed like Nico Collins (6-44-0/9) was Allen’s main look…and Collins is just continuing to give off that aura of a #1 WR (for HOU).

Brandin Cooks (5-59-0/5) has bled into the background as a random FF-nobody WR3/4.

Early on, the Texans couldn’t do anything on offense so not much happened for any receiver. It was only during the heavy-pass 2nd-half comeback that numbers started adding up…and it was a hurry up offense with a lot of ‘go deep’ receivers then Allen dumping it off underneath the prevent zone. I’d say that was not a real Houston offense, but Houston might be in that situation every week the rest of the season.

The best-looking/most effective receiver for Houston, by far, in this game, was TE Jordan Akins (5-6-1-1/5). I mean…Akins could be a receiving star, a monster after the catch, but he never gets a push. He’s a deep sleeper for Week 13.

 -- Part of the problem with the Houston passing game is the run game has been squashed. Dameon Pierce (5-8-0, 3-8-0/6) is great…but 8 yards on 5 carries? You think that’s him…or his surroundings? Or was it Miami? Well, his last two games, Pierce has 15 carries for 16 rushing yards…total. Stunning. I’d say it’s a ‘Houston’ issue.

You’d think the Browns Week 13 would be a great matchup for Pierce…but I don’t know that there is a great matchup for anything Houston anymore.

Pierce hasn’t had a rushing TD in 6 games. He had a 6-game quality start streak Weeks 3-8. But in his last three games, he’s a (0/3).

 -- Nothing to really talk about the Miami offense. It was great.

So ‘great’ that Mike McDaniel pulled many starters midway 3rd-quarter…Tua-Tyreek-Waddle-Wilson…which was an FF output killer. You’ll get mad at your FF team if you lost – and seek/demand answers and wanna make sweeping FF-changes because of the dreaded ‘L’, but if Miami had just played starters through to the 4th-quarter, much less the whole game, then you would’ve gotten so many more points out of the Miami crew for your FF teams.

Was your, or our, scouting wrong on these players last week? Miami got fluky defensive scores and near-scores setting up short fields and built a quick/huge lead and then key starters got pulled. How could you have projected that?

 -- Jeff Wilson (13-39-1, 1-13-0/1) was literally dragged off the field with a leg injury near his own sideline, and I thought (watching it live) that Wilson had gotten season-ending hurt. But he was soon after seen standing up and massaging his calf…and when the Houston comeback grew a bit scary, then Wilson went back out there to try and salt the victory. No worries on Wilson this week, but I’m sure he’ll be questionable at first…the worry this week is facing the SF run defense and possibly minus his two best offensive linemen.

 -- This Miami-DST blew up Houston in the 1st-half. Sacks…picks…fumbles. I like the Miami-DST. I think they could be ‘on the rise’, but I give Houston more ‘credit’ for this meltdown.

The Browns-DST is gonna destroy this Kyle Allen-led Texans offense in Week 13.

Snap Counts of Interest:

36 = Quitoriano

32 = Akins

12 = OJ Howard