2022 Week 13 NFL Handicapping: All Picks ATS and Survivor Pool Pick

R.C. Fischer

FFM

01 December 2022

2022 Week 13 NFL Handicapping: All Picks ATS and Survivor Pool Pick

My white-hot picking ways led to a (12-4) ATS record last week, a (4-1) Blazing Five (my top 5 listed games each week but not including Thu. Games by rule) and brought the best bet home.

I'm not changing a thing for my picking formulas…I've been killing it for several weeks, pretty much all season. And this week, I think there's some excellent opportunities in spreads to take advantage of. High confidence going into the week, which usually means trouble. Let's see who wins…my feelings or betting karma!

My top 5 (non-THU) picks are all underdogs that I believe the underdog will win all, most all of, the games straight up. I am (15-8) YTD when calling for an underdog straight up win (not factoring spread, just straight up win).

Good luck with your picks this week.

Week 12 results…

FFM All picks straight up: 11-5

FFM ATS: 12-4

FFM Best Bet: 1-0

FFM Blazing Five (no TNF): 4-1

FFM Calling a dog for an outright win: 1-1

Chris ATS: 7-9

Ross ATS: 11-5

Chris Best Bet: 0-1

Ross Best Bet: 0-1

When All 3 analysts agree: 4-1

When both analysts disagree with my pick: 4-2, for me

FFM Survivor: DAL(W)

Chris Survivor: XXX

Ross Survivor: MIA(W)

All Underdogs ATS = 8-8

---------------------------------------

YTD results…

All picks straight up: 128-61-1

ATS: 107-69-4 (61%)

Best Bet: 8-4

Blazing Five (no TNF): 39-19-2 (67.2%)

Calling a dog for an outright win: 15-8

Chris ATS: 108-68-4

Ross ATS: 93-83-4

Chris Best Bet: 9-3 (maybe you should listen to the expert!)

Ross Best Bet: 6-6

When All 3 analysts agree: 45-23-1

When both analysts disagree with my pick: 19-17, for me

FFM Survivor: BAL(W), BUF(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), CIN(W), KC(W), MIA(W), ATL(L), NO(W), DAL(W)

Chris Survivor: BAL(W), GB(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), LAR(W), CIN(W), DAL(W), BUF(L), TEN(W), SF(W)

Ross Survivor: DEN(L), XXX, BUF (L), GB(W), PHI(W), SF(L), LV(W), DAL(W), TB(W), KC(W), BAL(W), MIA(W)

All Underdogs ATS = 96-80-4

-----------------------

Week 13 Picks….

JAX (-1.5) at DET *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*

The Computer says: DET by 5.4 (a 6.9 spread differential)

Bet of the Year candidate here. The Lions are WAY better than the Jags. But the media/public discounts the Lions and thinks Trevor is generational and that their win over the Ravens is a breakout moment for the team. It was a lucky win last week, Trevor is not better than Goff, and the Jags are nowhere near as good as the Lions. Easiest bet of the week…and, perhaps, year.

Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: DET

Ross Jacobs: JAX

NO at TB (-3.5) *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*

The Computer says: NO by 1.3 (a 4.8 spread differential)

The public, thus Vegas, LOVES Tampa because of Tom Brady. But in reality this is a bad TB team, now even worse missing their best offensive player (OT Wirfs). I think the Saints are the better team at full health, and the Saints may be the healthiest they've been in a while for this game that if they win they are right back in the NFC South chase.

Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: NO

Ross Jacobs: NO

NYJ at MIN (-3.0)

The Computer says: NYJ by 1.7 (a 4.7 spread differential)

The Jets are a similar team to the Dallas team Minnesota lost 40-3 to a few weeks ago. I think Minnesota is a (6-5) team in a (9-2) clothing, and minus Darrisaw (if) then they're in trouble against the Jets defense.

Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: MIN

Ross Jacobs: NYJ

BUF (-4.0) at NE

The Computer says: BUF by 8.3 (a 4.3 spread differential)

The Patriots aren't good…when they face better competition. An overrated defense and a stiff/weak offense with banged up/missing OLs for NE.

Buffalo is not perfect either but are superior…and getting healthier. If Buffalo can get to 30+ points here, no way the Pats can play a shootout against them.

Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: BUF

Ross Jacobs: BUF

TEN at PHI (-5.5)

The Computer says: PHI by 1.6 (a 3.9 spread differential)

I am pre-Titans in most all matchups. The only thing holding me back from an outright upset call is the Titans injury report that, as of having to make my picks, is still up in the air on Simmons-Molden-Autry-Jones. The Titans are gonna run all over the Eagles bad run defense and we could see a repeat of the Washington game beat down Philly got a few weeks ago.

Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: TEN *BEST BET*

Ross Jacobs: TEN *BEST BET*

MIA at SF (-3.5) *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*

The Computer says: MIA by 0.3 (a 3.8 spread differential)

Miami is the better team as it is, but if CMC is out for SF…then I love this bet even more.

Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: SF

Ross Jacobs: MIA

KC (-2.5) at CIN *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*

The Computer says: CIN by 0.4 (a 2.9 spread differential)

I am a Joe Burrow over Pat Mahomes guy. The Bengals beat them twice last year, one of the wins in the playoffs at KC. I think they continue their winning ways here against KC.

Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: CIN

Ross Jacobs: CIN

WSH (-2.5) at NYG

The Computer says: WSH by 0.4 (a 2.1 spread differential)

The Giants play gritty football, like Washington does. If NYG gets CB Fabian Moreau back then I like NYG here for the cover and possible win.

Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: WSH

Ross Jacobs: WSH

PIT (-1.5) at ATL *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*

The Computer says: ATL by 0.3 (a 1.8 spread differential)

I'm not radically pro-Falcons, but they're in the pack of mediocre teams…and I get the home mediocre team with points in a critical game to possibly take the division lead.

Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: PIT

Ross Jacobs: ATL

LAC (-1.5) at LV

The Computer says: LAC by 0.3 (a 1.2 spread differential)

I don't trust LAC at all, so I'll take the home underdog for a potential outright win if CB Nate Hobbs is back.

Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: LV

Ross Jacobs: LAC

DEN at BAL (-8.5)

The Computer says: BAL by 7.7 (a 0.8 spread differential)

I cannot stand to watch the Broncos play football, but I'm not really into the Ravens as that great a team either. I'll just take the points…as I watch the Ravens struggle with bottom feeder teams the past few weeks.