2022 Week 13 NFL Handicapping: All Picks ATS and Survivor Pool Pick
My white-hot picking ways led to a (12-4) ATS record last week, a (4-1) Blazing Five (my top 5 listed games each week but not including Thu. Games by rule) and brought the best bet home.
I'm not changing a thing for my picking formulas…I've been killing it for several weeks, pretty much all season. And this week, I think there's some excellent opportunities in spreads to take advantage of. High confidence going into the week, which usually means trouble. Let's see who wins…my feelings or betting karma!
My top 5 (non-THU) picks are all underdogs that I believe the underdog will win all, most all of, the games straight up. I am (15-8) YTD when calling for an underdog straight up win (not factoring spread, just straight up win).
Good luck with your picks this week.
Week 12 results…
FFM All picks straight up: 11-5
FFM ATS: 12-4
FFM Best Bet: 1-0
FFM Blazing Five (no TNF): 4-1
FFM Calling a dog for an outright win: 1-1
Chris ATS: 7-9
Ross ATS: 11-5
Chris Best Bet: 0-1
Ross Best Bet: 0-1
When All 3 analysts agree: 4-1
When both analysts disagree with my pick: 4-2, for me
FFM Survivor: DAL(W)
Chris Survivor: XXX
Ross Survivor: MIA(W)
All Underdogs ATS = 8-8
---------------------------------------
YTD results…
All picks straight up: 128-61-1
ATS: 107-69-4 (61%)
Best Bet: 8-4
Blazing Five (no TNF): 39-19-2 (67.2%)
Calling a dog for an outright win: 15-8
Chris ATS: 108-68-4
Ross ATS: 93-83-4
Chris Best Bet: 9-3 (maybe you should listen to the expert!)
Ross Best Bet: 6-6
When All 3 analysts agree: 45-23-1
When both analysts disagree with my pick: 19-17, for me
FFM Survivor: BAL(W), BUF(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), CIN(W), KC(W), MIA(W), ATL(L), NO(W), DAL(W)
Chris Survivor: BAL(W), GB(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), LAR(W), CIN(W), DAL(W), BUF(L), TEN(W), SF(W)
Ross Survivor: DEN(L), XXX, BUF (L), GB(W), PHI(W), SF(L), LV(W), DAL(W), TB(W), KC(W), BAL(W), MIA(W)
All Underdogs ATS = 96-80-4
-----------------------
Week 13 Picks….
JAX (-1.5) at DET *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*
The Computer says: DET by 5.4 (a 6.9 spread differential)
Bet of the Year candidate here. The Lions are WAY better than the Jags. But the media/public discounts the Lions and thinks Trevor is generational and that their win over the Ravens is a breakout moment for the team. It was a lucky win last week, Trevor is not better than Goff, and the Jags are nowhere near as good as the Lions. Easiest bet of the week…and, perhaps, year.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: DET
Ross Jacobs: JAX
NO at TB (-3.5) *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*
The Computer says: NO by 1.3 (a 4.8 spread differential)
The public, thus Vegas, LOVES Tampa because of Tom Brady. But in reality this is a bad TB team, now even worse missing their best offensive player (OT Wirfs). I think the Saints are the better team at full health, and the Saints may be the healthiest they've been in a while for this game that if they win they are right back in the NFC South chase.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: NO
Ross Jacobs: NO
NYJ at MIN (-3.0)
The Computer says: NYJ by 1.7 (a 4.7 spread differential)
The Jets are a similar team to the Dallas team Minnesota lost 40-3 to a few weeks ago. I think Minnesota is a (6-5) team in a (9-2) clothing, and minus Darrisaw (if) then they're in trouble against the Jets defense.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: MIN
Ross Jacobs: NYJ
BUF (-4.0) at NE
The Computer says: BUF by 8.3 (a 4.3 spread differential)
The Patriots aren't good…when they face better competition. An overrated defense and a stiff/weak offense with banged up/missing OLs for NE.
Buffalo is not perfect either but are superior…and getting healthier. If Buffalo can get to 30+ points here, no way the Pats can play a shootout against them.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: BUF
Ross Jacobs: BUF
TEN at PHI (-5.5)
The Computer says: PHI by 1.6 (a 3.9 spread differential)
I am pre-Titans in most all matchups. The only thing holding me back from an outright upset call is the Titans injury report that, as of having to make my picks, is still up in the air on Simmons-Molden-Autry-Jones. The Titans are gonna run all over the Eagles bad run defense and we could see a repeat of the Washington game beat down Philly got a few weeks ago.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: TEN *BEST BET*
Ross Jacobs: TEN *BEST BET*
MIA at SF (-3.5) *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*
The Computer says: MIA by 0.3 (a 3.8 spread differential)
Miami is the better team as it is, but if CMC is out for SF…then I love this bet even more.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: SF
Ross Jacobs: MIA
KC (-2.5) at CIN *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*
The Computer says: CIN by 0.4 (a 2.9 spread differential)
I am a Joe Burrow over Pat Mahomes guy. The Bengals beat them twice last year, one of the wins in the playoffs at KC. I think they continue their winning ways here against KC.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: CIN
Ross Jacobs: CIN
WSH (-2.5) at NYG
The Computer says: WSH by 0.4 (a 2.1 spread differential)
The Giants play gritty football, like Washington does. If NYG gets CB Fabian Moreau back then I like NYG here for the cover and possible win.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: WSH
Ross Jacobs: WSH
PIT (-1.5) at ATL *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*
The Computer says: ATL by 0.3 (a 1.8 spread differential)
I'm not radically pro-Falcons, but they're in the pack of mediocre teams…and I get the home mediocre team with points in a critical game to possibly take the division lead.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: PIT
Ross Jacobs: ATL
LAC (-1.5) at LV
The Computer says: LAC by 0.3 (a 1.2 spread differential)
I don't trust LAC at all, so I'll take the home underdog for a potential outright win if CB Nate Hobbs is back.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: LV
Ross Jacobs: LAC
DEN at BAL (-8.5)
The Computer says: BAL by 7.7 (a 0.8 spread differential)
I cannot stand to watch the Broncos play football, but I'm not really into the Ravens as that great a team either. I'll just take the points…as I watch the Ravens struggle with bottom feeder teams the past few weeks.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast:
Ross Jacobs: BAL
CLE (-7.0) at HOU
The Computer says: CLE by 7.2 (a 0.2 spread differential)
I am staying away from this because I'm not sure the emotions and energy that's gonna come from either side. Could Houston be sky high? Or will they start out hot and then fizzle because they aren't very good? Is Watson really ready after 2+ years off? Just making a dart throw pick here.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast:
Ross Jacobs: CLE
GB (-4.0) at CHI
The Computer says: GB by 4.2 (a 0.2 spread differential)
Too many Bears secondary injuries to play a confident cover with them. If Brisker-Gordon turn and full practice and play, then I'll tip to Chicago + the points Friday/Saturday.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast:
Ross Jacobs: GB
SEA (-7.5) at LAR
The Computer says: SEA by 7.4 (a 0.1 spread differential)
You have to like Seattle here…or I should say, you have to hate the Rams here…no Donald-Kupp-Stafford with a battered O-Line. However, large favorites on the road have not done well this year. I'll take SEA to win for survivor, but I'll try to get a backdoor cover on the large number for a throwaway pick.
*FFM SURVIVOR PICK*
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast:
Ross Jacobs: SEA *SURVIVOR*
IND at DAL (-10.5)
The Computer says: DAL by 10.4 (a 0.1 spread differential)
Dallas is clearly better, and Matt Ryan scares the heck out of me, especially against the Cowboys defense…but +10.5 for a team that can run the ball like Indy is a lot of points that I can't refuse.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast:
Ross Jacobs: IND
