2022 Week 12: Jaguars 28, Ravens 27 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
A very bizarre game that Baltimore should’ve won by 2-3 scores. The Ravens are not that good and weren’t great here...but anyone who thinks the Jags are now 'on the come' and that this was some quality win is fooling themselves -- and it’s the media fooling themselves. The media LOVES the Ravens and also the Jaguars, so when a team upsets the Ravens it’s a momentous occasion…and when it’s the fighting Trevor Lawrences that do the upsetting, well then that team has arrived and Trevor has arrived because only the greatest of QBs/teams could take down the mighty Lamar Jacksons.
In reality, Lamar Jackson is wildly overrated and has been pretty weak this season since Week 3, after a hot three-game start to the season. Lawrence didn’t do anything special in this game aside from some late prayers answered in the hurry up. Trevor is not terrible, but he’s still not that good.
The Ravens led this game 19-10 with 6 minutes remaining…led on the strength of four Justin Tucker field goals that were very close to being 1-2 TDs instead…but they settled for field goals, and it bit them in the end. The Ravens let the Jaguars back into the game via sloppy play and a huge fumble to set up a quick/easy JAX score late…then the Ravens took control back, and JAX had one last drive and Trevor hit a couple miracles downfield and then a miracle fade/great catch TD and two-point conversion…and, ballgame (after Justin Tucker narrowly missed a 66-yard FG attempt at the buzzer).
Two weak QBs, two weak defenses played a game and the luckiest QB pulled it out in the end = the short version of the game.
Jacksonville rises to (4-7), and they are not on the come…they are just a not-terrible young team who hangs around in some games and occasionally wins. In recent weeks, they’ve lost to Houston, Indy, and Denver…and the Indy win was Matt Ryan absolutely eviscerating them through the air. Let that point sink in. The Jags will likely win one game the rest of the season, maybe two.
The Ravens fall to (7-4) and let the Bengals right back into the AFC North race, a race the Ravens have a super-easy schedule to try and capture…but they’re blowing it. I think the Ravens schedule can get them to (10-7) and maybe the division title but I’d take Cincy now, with their very tough schedule, to win it -- because they are simply the better team than the Ravens. I could see Baltimore finishing at 9 or 10 or 11 wins in the end. I’ll say 9-10 is probably right. If they collapse to the finish again like last season, it may be the end of the Lamar Jackson era in Baltimore.
The Ravens franchise tagging, and then trading an unhappy/wanting too much money Lamar is very much on the table if the Ravens fall out of the playoff picture.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Trevor Lawrence (29-37 for 321 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) had a great stat line but his play pretty much remains the same…a lot of quick, short throws and not a lot of offense. They only had 10 points in this game with 6 minutes remaining, then things got whacky and set the Jags up for more scores.
The Ravens, for their part, sat back in a soft zone or soft man and just watched Trevor throw short underneath it over and over and never really adjusted. Then, late in the game, when Jacksonville needed to move the ball more, Trevor threw some no-read, pre-planned throws to spots and the coverage was soft…and credit Trevor for landing most of the throws on the final drive…throws he missed most of the game prior.
I still think Lawrence is an average QB…but credit Doug Pederson for a smart game plan, playing to Lawrence’s strengths/hiding his weaknesses and just accumulating some good numbers on simple short passes (a la Carson Wentz back when people thought he was good). Trevor is a QB1, in FF PPG, YTD…but I don’t see a QB1 on tape.
Trevor is a (5/6) this season, a (4/2) his last six games.
-- Lamar Jackson (16-32 for 254 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 14-89-0) played another lacking game overall. A lot of the failed TD (turned FG) opportunities lie at his feet with errant throws, but his receivers didn’t help out much either with more than normal drops.
In his last 7 games, LJax has 7 TD passes and 5 picks, and under 60% Comp. Pct. He’s been under 200 yards passing eight of 11 games this season. But he looks cool running the ball 1-2x a game, so all is forgiven/doesn’t matter to the media. Oh, and Trevor Lawrence has as many rushing TDs this season as Lamar does (3). In the past two seasons combined, Lamar has 5 rushing TDs…so does Trevor. What a lethal runner Lamar is!!!
Not an easy pass defense schedule ahead for Lamar, who is struggling as it is as a passer.
Lamar is a (5/6) this season, a (2/6) in his last 8 games.
-- Travis Etienne (2-3-0) went down early with a foot injury. He could’ve returned but didn’t…coach said he was playing it safe. So, JaMycal Hasty (12-28-0, 5-67-1/5) took almost all the work from there. Snoop Conner was lightly used. Darrell Henderson was inactive.
Etienne is going to go Week 13, and Hasty will be the lightly used #2. Darrell Henderson is really not going to matter in this backfield in 2022.
-- Gus Edwards (16-52-1, 0-0-0/1) returned from injury and just popped to the head of the class, so Kenyan Drake (2-2-0, 0-0-0/1) got totally rejected here. So, until J.K. Dobbins returns…we have to assume this is Gus’s backfield, and that stat line from this game…that’s pretty much the level of excitement a Gus-led backfield brings.
-- Zay Jones (11-143-0/14) is ON FIRE. It kinda snuck up on me…9.5 catches (12.0 targets), 106.5 yards, and 0.0 TDs per game his last two games. Prior to that, a bunch of WR3-4 games mostly.
When Zay pipes up, Christian Kirk (4-46-0/9) usually dips down, and vice-versa. Kirk is due to pipe back up.
In this game, Zay didn’t do anything spectacular…he just ran simple routes…the Baltimore CBs played way off and then Zay would hit a stop route and turn around to catch an incoming timing pass…over-and-over. He got a couple medium balls for nice catches to boost the yardage.
Will Zay star again in Week 13? Maybe. Zay and Kirk seem to toggle back and forth from hot WR1 weeks to WR3/4 weeks then blip back to a WR1 week. Week 13 at Detroit (and their weak slot WR coverage) may favor Kirk, and thus not favor Zay.
-- I’m not sure how/why Josh Oliver (4-76-1/6) became a star this week, but he did. I’m thinking…an offense that leans heavy on Demarcus Robinson and Josh Oliver, probably isn’t winning the Super Bowl…or a playoff game…or the AFC North.
Oliver’s jump may have been caused by Mark Andrews (4-50-0/7) struggling to catch the ball. Andrews has been an FF dud since Week 7, once he got the injury bug. Fantasy Football is a funny thing…if you played the Andrews owner early in the season, Andrews whipped you…but those facing him lately are getting a massive break with his TE2/3 performances. We love and hate our FF teams week-to-week, but a lot of it can come down to the timing of the schedule of opponents.
Andrews started the season as a (4/2) and has been an (0/4) ever since plus missed a game in there. Andrews is a (4/6) this season…wow. David Njoku is a (4/5) by comparison.
-- DeMarcus Robinson (1-17-0/4) crashed and burned off his recent hot streak. Robinson caught his only pass 5 minutes into the game…no more catches the next 55 minutes. Some #1 WR…
-- Rookie ILB Chad Muma (9 tackles) sent rookie 1st-round pick Devin Lloyd (2 tackles) to the bench this game…Muma’s first start. Somewhat due to Muma’s development, somewhat due to Lloyd’s falling off. I like Muma better for IDP production versus Lloyd.
-- Is something wrong with the Ravens-DST? They were soft here and gave up 28 points.
I’d say this: Last week, the Ravens D gave up just 3 points to Carolina. Prior to that, 13 points allowed to the Saints on MNF, at New Orleans. This game, they should’ve never let JAX get past 20 points…and the getting to 20 took Baltimore offensive failures/turnovers to happen for JAX. The Ravens aren’t my favorite DST, but v. DEN-PIT the next two weeks is useful. DEN-PIT-CLE-ATL-PIT the next five weeks looks fine enough too.
Snap Counts of Interest:
49 = Hasty
10 = Snoop C
05 = Etienne
61 = Andrews
44 = J Oliver
36 = Gus E.
18 = Drake
14 = Justice H
