2022 Week 12: Chiefs 26, Rams 10 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
This game was closer (scoreboard wise) than it really was. The Rams gave it their all, especially on defense, and were only down 20-10 midway into the 4th-quarter, but the Chiefs were obviously superior and not playing their sharpest/most focused game against a vastly wounded and inferior opponent. The Chiefs sloppily pulled away in the end for the 16-point win (and thankful cover!).
The Rams lose their 5th in-a-row to fall to (3-8)…the defending Super Bowl champs. Nothing explains the 2022 NFL (and FF) seasons, in general, like the L.A. Rams. Defending Super Bowl champs…set to make another run…lots of promise and star power…and then ravaged by injury (especially on the O-Line) and barely halfway through the season the Rams are arguably the worst team in the NFL with their current active roster for Week 13 (and Aaron Donald will be out). The injuries to NFL and FF teams this year has been insane…based mostly at the O-Line, and then that affecting things with ripple effects it’s hard to have a fast/natural reaction to.
Challenging the Rams for ‘the worst’ is everyone’s predicted playoff team, the Denver Broncos. The Rams battle the Broncos Week 16 for ‘the title’…of ‘worst team in the NFL’.
The Chiefs kinda sleepwalked through this game for the fairly easy win. It was never really a worry at any point…there’s no comparison of these two Week 12 teams/starters/rosters. KC is now (9-2) and headed to Cincinnati Week 13 for their toughest game remaining this regular season. KC can win out from Week 14 on. If KC wins Week 13, they will for sure be the #1 seed in the AFC in the end. If they lose to Cincy, they will still likely be the #1 seed. KC will wind up with 14-15 wins in the end, and the rest of the top contenders have to tough a schedule to catch that in the end. The advantage to get through the AFC and to the Super Bowl is tipped to KC right now. They better pray Cincy or Tennessee is not their 2nd-round playoff opponent…
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The thing I most looked forward to watching in this study was the full debut of starting QB Bryce Perkins (13-23 for 100 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs, 9-44-0). How well did the highly mobile QB run? Was he totally awful/over his head as a passer?
The live watch was as expected…KC in control, Perkins running around a bunch. The box score didn’t reveal anything special.
Rewatching this in more detail, I was impressed with a couple things Perkins did…
1) He ran the ball with purpose, under control, and not frenetically. He did not seem fazed at all by the moment. The Rams ran him on purpose some but mostly Perkins rolled out and took off or took off from the collapsing pocket. He looked quick, agile…tough enough to take hits…smart enough to avoid hits. A really nice, smart game of running the ball as a weapon.
But KC’s defense is loaded with young, quick talent (and the Rams O-Line is a mess)…so, they were able to stay up with Perkins for the most part.
2) Perkins’ passing game wasn’t great, but it’s not his strong suit…but I wanted to see if he was completely frazzled or not. He was very calm and cool most of the game. He has no O-Line and KC was able to bust through quickly a few times throwing the whole timing off, but Perkins often escaped it and at least avoided the sack.
Perkins made a couple decent throws…setup by his rushing prowess holding the KC frontline at bay and the defense not urgently pass rushing him and thus allowing Perkins occasional time to read the field some and find options. He misfired some easy completions…had a few drops against him.
I thought Perkins was about as I expected as a passer here…overmatched but his mobility presented some opportunity. And as a runner, it was better than I expected.
I think the Rams have to stick with Perkins over John Wofford because their O-Line is so bad, Perkins offers a wrinkle to defuse that some. I don’t believe Matt Stafford will return this season, he’s a fool if he does…so too is McVay if he allows it, but McVay may be headed out of coaching for a while (and into broadcasting) and might not care.
-- Because Perkins is not a high-volume passer, there is no Rams receiver to chase.
Van Jefferson (3-29-1/7) scoring a TD here and leading the way in targets…doesn’t do a thing for me. I see the mild ‘3’ for catches…a terrible 43% catch rate, which between Perkins’ weaker passer skills and Van’s terrible catch rate anyway…this is not going to be anything but random events week-to-week.
Tutu Atwell (2-23-0/2) might outscore Van for FF the rest of the way just because Atwell works better for Perkins’s scramble mode and thus buying time for receivers to run around to get open…and Atwell is a much better ‘run around’ WR than Jefferson.
Perkins tried to get rookie UDFA WR Lance McCutcheon (0-0-0/3) going but two misfires on simple passes and a McCutcheon drop of an easy pass…McCutcheon looks out of sorts/not comfortable, like rookies can be. But I know McCutcheon is the most raw/talented WR they have right now, and he and Perkins have some connection from the preseason and working 2nd/3rd teams all along. I bet, if Perkins stays QB, McCutcheon will be a ghost for a bit and then all the sudden one game McCutcheon dials in and has a moment. Just speculation on my part.
-- The run game is so sad for LAR right now, between the talents and the corrupted O-Line…and lack of a threatening passing game and now Perkins as their best runner.
Cam Akers (8-37-0) looks spry enough, but he also looks much smaller than normal and is no more than a little satellite-ish back in a terrible situation trying to be a lead back that he isn’t…and thus he continues to put up dreadful numbers…but he’s improving the last two weeks. Akers is a (0/9) this season.
Kyren Williams (11-35-0, 3-25-0/3) looks like Akers, physically, it’s hard to tell when they switched RBs at a glance. Williams is a worse interior runner than Akers, but is an OK pass game back -- but running QBs like Perkins don’t usually throw a lot of RB dump off passes. So, Kyren is on a weak spot to get numbers for all the stated reasons…and Williams is just not that good as it is.
Kyren getting 11 carries here, I am not totally swayed…Kyren didn’t get his first touch until 13 minutes into the game. However, Kyren ended up doubling+ Akers’ snaps (38 to 16). Akers may have burned bridges which does tip some scale to Kyren -- but, in the end, with this Rams team, who FF-cares?
-- You know I’m the biggest Isiah Pacheco (22-69-1, 1-7-0/1) fan out there…the ‘O.G.’ original fan, the constructor of the Pacheco bandwagon for all to hop in for a ride on. He looks great, and I cannot believe he’s already become the KC lead RB halfway into his rookie season. Scouting job well done by FFM WAY before the mainstream. However…
For FF, I am concerned about Pacheco’s FF-scoring potential in this 2022 offense…and that also extends to Skyy and Toney. This offense is in love with ‘rotations’. Aside from Kelce, they are not slave to any receiver or back. And while Pacheco is getting more touches lately…he’s not getting a ton of TD opps, because they don’t have to run the ball…they’re better with the ball in Mahomes’ hands, and Pacheco is not used in the passing game plan either.
Pacheco is building momentum and the sky's the limit and he’s working towards being a stable RB2 most weeks -- but the risk is that KC will turn on its run game in an instant because they don’t need it. Games like this one vs. a far inferior Rams team, we had his projections higher for because it would be a low-pressure game for KC, and they could work some young players more.
We’ll see how much they are willing to run with Pacheco against Cincy…I don’t think they will run much and Pacheco is at risk of a 10 carry for 40 yards type game…hoping he scores a short TD to save the FF-day. Weeks 14-15-16-17 v. DEN-HOU-SEA-DEN are much better outlooks for Pacheco’s touch count.
-- Skyy Moore (5-36-0/6) had another nice showing this week…with Toney-Hardman out. Skyy was the top targeted WR for KC/Mahomes, but just a basic 5 catch for 36 yards and no TD boring FF game.
Back-to-back 5 catch, midland yardage and no TD games for Skyy, while only playing 42% and 46% snap counts. No heavy usage, no consistency to rely on. It’s good that he’s getting good looks in limited play time…but that trend is not changing in 2022, and Skyy will sink back more when Toney returns and then virtually disappear when Hardman returns.
2023+ for Skyy…not 2022, unfortunately…unless Hardman is out longer term this season, and Toney never gets healthy either. There is that hope for Skyy.
-- We booked a solid game from the Chiefs-DST here…easy choice facing this sad Rams offense. We cannot use versus Cincy Week 13, but then it’s game-on Weeks 14-17…DEN-HOU-SEA-DEN…DEN and HOU are as bad as it gets for offenses.
Week 16 hosting Seattle is a mediocre matchup. There might be better to use in that critical week. If you’re rocking KC-DST, then you need a Week 13 option but then also, maybe, there will be a better Week 16 option on the horizon…but we may be best to just wait to see what offenses are collapsing/QBs getting replaced, etc. to make a Week 16 streaming DST choice better than KC v. SEA, but still holding KC for Week 17.
Snap Counts of Interest:
64 = J Watson
44 = MVS
35 = Skyy Moore
29 = JuJu
17 = Fortson
39 = Pacheco
26 = McKinnon
11 = Ron Jones
47 = Van J
34 = Skowronek
26 = Powell
26 = McCutcheon
38 = Kyren
16 = Akers
