2022 Week 10 Game Recap: Commanders 32, Eagles 21 (by Ross Jacobs)
Philly started this game off hot with a 7-0 lead, but Washington answered right back. Philly then went right down the field again...and the Commanders answered again. Philly then struggled for a while to get things going. They were just missing on some pass plays and the Washington offense kept them off the field by slowly grinding out yards on the ground and with short passes from Heinicke. Pretty soon the Commanders had a 20-14 halftime lead but with the feeling that the Eagles would get things together and find the win.
In the 3rd quarter Philly drove down for a TD to cut the lead to 2 for Washington, and then things started to really go wrong for the Eagles. Heinicke threw a terrible INT to give Philly the ball on the next drive and everyone knew this was the moment where the Eagles would take back control and put the game away...except on the next drive Dallas Goedert was tackled to the ground awkwardly (and with a missed facemask penalty) and fumbled the ball to give Washington a short field goal.
Next drive Hurts launched a bomb to Quez Watkins who caught the ball but was untouched, stood up to run, and was immediately hit and fumbled the ball. With about 2 minutes left Philly still had a chance if they could get the ball back but as Heinicke took a knee on a broken 3rd down play, the Eagles defense hit him giving Washington a first down and more time off the clock. Philly got the ball back for one last miracle chance with 5 seconds left but the ball was fumbled on a lateral pass and Washington recovered for a TD to make the score look even worse.
A lot of people are bashing the Eagles for losing this game, saying they were exposed or some such nonsense. All I can tell you is that it's just one of those games...everything went right for Washington and wrong for Philly. The Commanders played a fantastic game, no doubt, they deserved to win, but if you played this game 100 times the Eagles win it 85%+. Philly is a legit Superbowl contender, the obvious favorite from the NFC (along with SF at full strength). Washington is a good team, solid, capable, but not a playoff team. They are probably better than half of the NFC teams but just happen to reside in the same division as 2-3 other teams that are better (the Giants aren't better personnel wise but are just really well coached...and a bit lucky).
Washington has a favorable schedule ahead and could go on a nice mini-run the next 3-4 weeks. I could see them winning as many as 5 more games but 3-4 seems most likely. That would put them at 8 or 9 wins but probably just out of reach of the playoffs unless the Cowboys or Giants stumble at the finish line. It's not completely out of the realm of possibility though that all 4 NFC East teams could make the playoffs but it is unlikely.
Philly is going to easily win this division. I don't think the Cowboys can keep up at this point, nor do I believe the Giants good fortune will continue. They simply don't have the firepower to keep up with the Eagles. Philly has a fantastic schedule remaining and could easily run the table, but more likely they end with 13 or 14 wins and an easy #1 seed in the NFC.
Fantasy Player Notes:
– Give Taylor Heinicke some credit. He's not a great QB but he's good enough and the team believes in him. That's certainly not true of Wentz. Heinicke will remain the starting QB in 2022 so long as he's healthy. They will still need to look for a potential upgrade next year, but if he finishes strong (a strong possibility based on how this team is playing and the schedule) then he might earn himself a chance to keep the starting job next year. I don't believe he's quite good enough to be the long term starter here, but the team loves his competitiveness and so does Rivera so he'll get every chance to hold onto this job in the near future. For fantasy he's just good as a spot start if you're desperate.
– The Washington backfield is 65-35 Brian Robinson over Antonio Gibson. Most weeks the team wants Robinson up around 18-20 carries and Gibson will take 8-12 to spell him. Gibson is more likely to pop a big play with his speed but Robinson is better at grinding out consistent yards and keeping the chains moving which is how the Commanders dominated the time of possession against the Eagles and kept Hurts off the field. That's their recipe for success right now despite having a banged up offensive line.
I like how the schedule looks but it's hard to get excited for either back right now. Robinson has a chance at 100 yards and a TD against the league worst Houston defense this week and I wouldn't be shocked if Gibson got in on the fun as well.
– Not sure how on earth Terry McLaurin got 128 yards here. That was the quietest 128 yards ever. I knew he was doing well against a good Philly pass defense but not that good. He's still one of the most underrated WRs in the league, something I've been saying since his 2nd year in the league...Since Heinicke took over in week 7, McLaurin has seen his targets and yards all bump up. Over that time frame he's WR8 in ppr. So long as Heinicke starts you have to think McLaurin is a borderline WR1.
– I also love Curtis Samuel as much as anyone, but the dream of him as a WR1 isn't coming back around. It was nice while it lasted the first few weeks of the season, but his playing time, targets, yards, and TDs have all been falling as the season wears on, through no fault of his own but it is what it is. He's a great complimentary player for them and is still quite useful as a flex option in fantasy. He hasn't found paydirt often lately but that should come around soon, and his real hidden value lies in the fact that he's taking 4-5 carries most weeks and is still an explosive runner. Add in around 4 catches for 50 yards most weeks and it usually nets you around 10-12 points in ppr with additional upside if he hits a TD. That's nothing to scoff at. There will be some down weeks but who doesn't have those these days?
– This was a weird game for Philly and it threw off everyone for fantasy except of course Jalen Hurts. He's going to get his most every week because of his rushing floor and taking all the short rushing TDs. He's going to get you a minimum of 20 points most weeks and remains a threat to finish as the overall QB1.
– Again this was an odd game for AJ Brown and to a lesser degree DeVonta Smith. Both guys are still WR2s but you can likely buy Smith for less than that, but everyone else thinks Brown is a WR1. He's not, not in this offense. Hurts spreads the ball around too much for that. Brown has two monster games this year and a lot of decent games outside that. Dallas Goedert was injured here and put on IR which should boost both the WRs a little bit over the next month.
It was also nice to see the Eagles finally get Quez Watkins involved a little more. He's a great 3rd receiver to have and I'd like to see them take a few more deep shots to him like they did here. The fumble was just an unfortunate accident. Watkins still won't be usable for fantasy unless one of the top two guys gets injured.
– This is a great time to buy low on Miles Sanders if someone will sell him to you as an RB3. He's an RB2 all day long. They just got down here and had to abandon the run. That is rarely going to happen.
*RC NOTE: Did you know…Miles Sanders has no catches in his last three games? One catch in his last four? All but one game this year over 9 yards receiving? He’s better for Non-PPR than PPR, that’s for sure. He is a ghost in the passing game.
*RC NOTE: I want to talk about the Eagles-DST…my special DST that I proclaimed months ago that they are so great that you can run them for the rest of the season for FF. Well, they got their asses kicked here…it wasn't just luck or ‘that kinda night’, they got annihilated…by the Washington Commanders with their broken O-Line and Taylor Heinicke.
This is a problem.
I can see a great defense having a bad night versus an elite offense, but this was more than a bad night – Washington was totally destroying them for about three quarters. Philly gave up 20 points and over 200+ yards of offense in the first half…while, I think, Washington converted 7-of-7 3rd-downs in the 1st-half, at one point. The Eagles defense could not stop any running play in the 1st-half…3-5-7+ yards a gash. Hienicke was sacked/fumbled the first drop back of the game, and then for most of the rest of the game he didn't have anyone within 3-5 yards of him from the Eagles pressure as he completed pass-after-pass.
For three quarters, I can't recall a ‘great’ defense looking so absolutely horrible…helpless. But they started locking down in the 4th-quarter.
I want to see if this Philly defense rises up in Week 11 against Indy, or if they get pushed around by them as well. In the last five weeks, the Eagles defense has allowed the following rushing yards in games…
Week 5 at ARI, 124 yards rushing allowed…to a team with a broken O-Line and terrible RBs.
Week 6 hosting DAL, they allowed 134 yards rushing…led by Ezekiel Elliott (not Pollard)…so that’s a concern
Week 7 BYE
Week 8, hosting PIT and their terrible run game…144 rushing yards allowed.
Week 9 at HOU on TNF, and their good RB with a bad O-Line…168 yards rushing allowed, and Houston was hanging right with Philly most of the night.
Week 10, this game, 152 yards rushing allowed to Washington, with a broken O-Line.
What do you think Indy is going to try and do to them with a decent O-Line and Jonathan Taylor? Philly plays some of the top run teams/games ahead.
Week 12 v. GB with the #14 rushing offense.
Week 13 v. TEN, #11
Week 14 v. NYG, #3
Week 15 v. CHI, #1
Week 16 v. DAL, #8
Week 17 v. NO, #15
If the Eagles get run over by Indy Week 11, then we’ve got huge problems with this defense from there. It was so bad this game, I started to bail some on them this week for good other options left on waivers in some leagues, but mostly I added a 2nd DST where I could and Week 11 is going to be a test of whether we go forward with Philly or not. I hope they wreck the Colts, for the Philly-DSTs sake, but I am very nervous…and I am starting them in some places and benching them in some other leagues to see what happens from a distance.
IDP Notes:
– Javon Hargrave (13 tackles, 1 tfl, 1 sack) is at it again. He's playing like a man possessed...the single most dominant defender in the league at the moment. Over his last 3 games he has racked up 28 tackles, 5 tfls, 6 sacks, and a forced fumble. That is an insane stretch of production for a DT. If he could somehow keep this up he'll easily finish as the overall top scorer on the DL. More likely he starts to slow down a little. That pace seems totally unsustainable. Definitely keep starting him though.
Snap Counts of Interest:
71 = McLaurin
53 = Samuel
34 = Dotson
61 = Thomas
41 = Bates
43 = Robinson
40 = Gibson
50 = Goedert
43 = Smith
39 = Brown
29 = Watkins
29 = Sanders
