2022 Week 6: Commanders 12, Bears 7 TNF (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
I don't want to pile on with how bad the TNF games have been lately…obviously, they've been pretty bad. This week's episode we got Carson Wentz playing through a fractured finger on his throwing hand, and looking/playing like it…versus Justin Fields, who wishes he could blame his awful passing ability on a broken hand. The team that won the game was the one where their running back who was nearly murdered via gun shots about 2 months ago grinded for the game winning TD late in the game.
The Commanders are terrible. The owner is terrible. Ron Rivera is awful (three winning seasons in 12 years as an NFL head coach). Their QB is not a topflight starter. They have no O-Line. They're 'loaded with names'/high draft pick filled defense stinks. And the must-have generational talent, Chase Young, has 1.5 sacks the past two seasons…playing 9 games and missing 14 games in that span. They'll finish last in the division…and should make a coaching change, but as long as Rivera keeps wisely being a shield for the owner, Riverboat Ron can keep stealing paychecks and getting mad at reporters for questioning his genius.
The Bears are not terrible…Justin Fields is. Think about this: The two QBs the experts in the industry proclaimed were the #1-2 best in the 2021 NFL Draft have turned out to be the two worst QBs in the NFL and they are killing their otherwise decent team with their terribleness at QB. Because it's the NFL, neither JAX or CHI will admit their problem/address it because we don't wanna offend the GM or scouts or sports media who were brainwashed into thinking that all that needs done is some coach to come along and unlock these generational talents.
Where was I? Oh, the Bears aren't bad…just their QB is the worst starter in the NFL and is never getting any better and thus the Bears will not be better until they fix the QB situation. They will win a few games on their spunky effort, but they'll lose more because of various Fields' failures.
One positive to address from this game…
The Amazon pregame show/panel is near-perfect (grading on a football curve, which is a dumbed-down curve). Amazon is one change away from football pregame perfection…
Richard Sherman is an 'A'…someone is finally, smartly, just letting it rip on things. He's not kissing anyone's ass. He's going to get himself fired if he's not careful…he's getting dangerously close to being what a real, smart human individual would say/react like to what he is seeing in the league or in any on-going game. They're going to try to do something to tone him down, but I don't think they can…but, it's the NFL…they probably will.
Richard Sherman…you, like Obi-Wan Kenobi, are our only hope!
Sherman is good at analyzing what's in front of him mixed with his firsthand experience. I don't know that he's yet gone into super-study mode and seeing things/players ahead of the curve…but maybe he will someday.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is a 'B'…could be an 'A', but he catches/filters himself from going full throttle on things.
Andrew Whitworth is a 'B'…he has a lot of normal human football reactions, more low key ones. The more he comes out of his shell, the better…but he may get chased back in his shell too easily, too corporately. Richard Sherman will get fired first before bowing down…not Whitworth, he'll toe a line it feels like.
Tony Gonzalez is an 'F'…he's been an 'F' his entire analyst existence. He's the typical 'presentable' mouthpiece who offers nothing in analysis but cliches with his focus on 'trying to keep this easy paycheck'. There's a reason he's banished all the way to the left of our screens while the other three interesting analysts sit together and steal your gaze/attention/the show. There's a reason why no one cares at all about anything Gonzalez has done in TV or radio or podcasting for over a decade. He's a total zero at his job, but they keep stuffing money in his pocket to do said job…they want Richard Sherman to be more like Gonzalez, but it ain't ever gonna happen.
Watching the Amazon trio of Sherman-Fitzpatrick-Whitworth is such a breath of fresh air versus the complete uselessness of Sunday mornings with Mariucci-Irvin-Warner or Mondays with Young-Griffin and whatever other laughing hyenas are with them on ESPN, I can't even remember who is on their panel/gaggle of personalities because they're all so nothing (besides Schefter is OK/has a use). Don't even get me started on NBC's Sunday Night abomination.
Please God, it's me R.C. -- please let Amazon take the NFL Sunday Ticket for the future. I'm begging you.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Carson Wentz (12-22 for 99 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) fractured his ring finger on his throwing hand in-game, and it affected the majority of his game this night…thus the 99 yards passing. This likely isn't getting any better. A QB change is likely coming.
If it happens, I bet it will be Taylor Heinicke against the media/fans wishes…they've seen the Heinicke story before, they know how the story ends. Heinicke is Rivera's boy, so you will not influence him away from it…in fact, Ron is gonna go there to spite the media/fans.
Why not Sam Howell? I suspect we could see Howell in a few weeks…but now that Washington has this one-game win streak, they don't want to mess with it by going with a rookie they didn't get ready for this moment. My guess is we get Heinicke for a few weeks then back to Wentz and at their Week 14 bye week we'll get Washington with three of their final 4 games at home and they will prep/debut of Howell…IF Washington is 100% out of playoff life.
-- If they move to Heinicke, not much will change for target flow…except everything probably reduced 10-15%.
Heinicke has history with Curtis Samuel (2-26-0/5) back to Carolina days…so, he's in a good spot still. Also, Samuel's value is going to plummet after this game -- CSam has been declining from his Weeks 1-2 pop, still been good but not as great…and now this FF dud game. I want to buy every single share at the near 'drop' (onto waivers) pricing. I think he will hit some waivers this week as the FF dud, the general disbelief in him settles in, and if Wentz is replaced.
Pursue him this week, if you'd like, after waivers…but do it thinking his value to the current owner is 'should I drop this guy'? See if he goes to waivers first…then subtly chase as 'depth'.
The shame of this TNF game for CSam…he couldn't haul in a 50+ yard TD pass that was a hair high, but catchable/he mistimed it. And then not too much later, Samuel dropped an easy 5+ yard toss…which he never does, he's one of the best money hand's WRs in the game. All of the visual of his drops and the junk FF-game output will be giving you a good time to 'buy low'.
-- FYI, as expected, no Dyami Brown (0-0-0/1) did not have a follow up event. The Bears defense, especially pass defense, is really good…and Dyami is not. Wentz took one lotto ball shot to Dyami this game, like last week, but it didn't connect…and that was it.
-- Brian Robinson (17-60-1), I think, ran the ball on every single play Washington had in the 1st-half…to my recollection. If you were going into this game wondering whether you could trust him as the main lead and not get too much siphoned off by Antonio Gibson (5-35-0, 3-18-0/4), well…wonder no more.
The next impactful thing Antonio Gibson will do in Fantasy…is get traded in the NFL. People keep hinting to me it will be to the Rams, as soon as this week (Week 7). I'd say Gibson getting traded is probably 90%+…but we don't know when it will be. Washington could wait for a few weeks to see if they get back into the playoff hunt (remember, these guys are delusional) AND/OR just wait for the desperate to get into the market -- every week will bring 1-5 more RB injury situations.
They should have Gibson inactive ahead to preserve him for trade, but they're not smart enough to do so.
I could see the Rams making this deal before Monday Night Football Week 6/tonight.
Should you go try and get Gibson ahead of it? Sure, but only at junk market prices. And you'll have to be clever -- if you chase it too direct, people are gonna start thinking and assume the same…and the media will be pushing for it all week after the games of Week 6 close.
You hope its to the Rams, but there will be other pursuers…and maybe LAR swings a deal for Christian McCaffrey first. Could be no deal to anywhere if Washington wins their next couple games.
-- Justin Fields (14-27 for 190 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 12-88-0) dug a big portion of his NFL-career-grave here. People were already starting to wonder/doubt…then they got an eyeful, on internet TV, of a QB who cannot even complete basic passes properly here. The narrative is shifting against making excuses for him…and just starting to blame/mock him.
I think he's still FF-viable, however. I'm guessing they may unleash him to run the ball more and play more streetball, and he'll still stink as a passer that way…but he might start racking 100+ yard rushing games. He got 88 yards here and had a 100+ game taken away via penalties. Same thing last week, when he lost a 50+ yard TD run to a penalty -- the intent of him running is growing/needed as the only way they can move the ball.
Terrible NFL QB but has potential as a Fantasy QB in 4pts pass TD…and he's not going anywhere this season. He won't be benched or replaced. Fields was awful here but still posted 17+ FF points (4pts per pass TD)…not bad…nearly had a rushing TD, or two.
-- Fields did get smart and over-target Darnell Mooney (7-68-0/12), as he should…as I thought might happen, that Mooney would have a WR2 week against a weak Washington secondary…and he did, and had he caught that TD at the end, we woulda got a WR1 event.
Mooney is a WR2-3 with WR1 events on TD weeks (rare) for 2022. He's all Fields has got.
Dante Pettis (4-84-1/7) could get a WR3-4 run ahead as a boom-bust WR during bye weeks. A nice game here, but in his 4 games prior, he had zero catches on 5 targets…while playing similar snap counts as he has all season, and in this Week 6 game as well. He's a victim of Fields as well.
-- William Jackson out and 2nd-year CB Rachad Mongoose (7 tackles) started and had a nice tackle count Week 5. With Jackson likely traded soon (probably this week to BAL or PIT), Mongoose might snake his way into several starts (see what I did there to entertain myself…Rikki-Tikki-Tavi, anyone…Bueller?).
Tariq Castro-Fields is the one to watch to rise up eventually, if William Jackson is gone and Mongoose can't hack it/subdue Cobras.
-- The Bears have a nice, young defense. They held Washington 12 points here…aided by Wentz's hand issue. They've held four of 6 opponents, this season, to 20 or fewer points in a game.
Basically, good QBs (Rodgers, Cousins) can get to 20+ FF points on them…but the mediocre or bad ones struggle to get there (Lance…in a monsoon, Dan Jones, Mills, Wentz).
I'm not sure I'm ready to bet on them against NE next week, at NE on MNF…because Belichick can cut through young units, but it's not-nothing. Really, the schedule the rest of the way says we're all really never going to consider using them…except maybe Week 11 at ATL. It's a tough schedule ahead.
Snap Counts of Interest:
66 = Mooney
46 = St. Brown
44 = Pettis
25 = Smith-Marsette
12 = Velus
56 = D. Montg
16 = Herbert
27 = Brian Robinson
17 = McKissic
15 = A Gibson
56 = McLaurin
49 = C Samuel
41 = Sims
06 = Milne
03 = Dyami
53 = Cole Turner
18 = A Rogers
