2022 Week 5: Texans 13, Jaguars 6 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
I guess you could say this was a defensive struggle!?!
Really, it was two bad offenses against two decent defenses…and the one that didn't have Trevor Lawrence screwing up every other play won the game. Jacksonville played better of the two, but Trevor kept throwing the game away, as he does, with passes to receivers (in critical spots) that were so obviously covered, while open receivers were sprinkled around him, and who were looking around in disbelief after the throw elsewhere. The difference in this game was -- Jacksonville has Trevor, and that's bad for business when any moment matters.
You know how we all thought the Chargers game…where Jacksonville blew them out…was the announcement of the arrival of the Jaguars? What if it was only the announcement of how truly awful the Chargers are? Jacksonville has a decent little team, but even Doug Pederson cannot create an offense simple enough to hide Trevor for long. In an NFL that wants change of everything after every loss…they don't when it's their golden idols they have been brainwashed to believe are greatness waiting to happen. So, Jacksonville will not admit this problem until probably after the 2023 season.
Houston? Better than Jacksonville personnel and QB-wise, but the gap of coaching brings them to a near-draw. Houston has the most useless offense, perhaps, in the NFL…well, wait the Falcons exist. We could see a 'one and done' in Houston at this rate for Lovie-Pep…but I doubt the Texans have the guts to make another one-year-and-done firing, so we'll get another year of Lovie-Pep…and Trevor…with the media cheering it along as 'patience'…as they try to kill off Mac Jones (among others) at the first sign of trouble. The things the media, and thus the fans, embrace/defend and what they attack/try to destroy makes little sense -- I just know that they are wrong almost every time…but they're also effective and usually get what they want eventually because the spotlight is hot on what they focus on.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Trevor Lawrence (25-47 for 286 yards, 0 TD/2 INT, 4-29-0) was just plain bad here. The second week in-a-row of looking REALLY bad. He started crumbling a bit in Week 3. Week 2, he looked pretty good against LAC (and, again, I say…there is more and more indictment of all things LAC being a full-scale disaster…as we go…run from them).
It's not the play calling or weapons or opponent -- it's just that Trevor Lawrence is really not good as an NFL QB. Sure, he can make a basic rollout and fire throw to an open receiver rolling with him or planted in front of him…like a thousand other QBs can. But in the pocket, Lawrence is simply one of the worst starting QBs in the league…especially in a big spot needing a clutch throw from the pocket. I'm trying to think of who is worse? Daniel Jones? I would feel better about Dan Dimes making a money pocket throw than Lawrence. Geno has blown way past Trevor as a QB. Justin Fields may be the lone QB worse than Trevor in the pocket…coincidentally, that's the mainstream's #1-2 generational talents from the 2021 NFL Draft class. Not mine.
As long as Trevor exists…it's hard to rely on anything around him consistently for FF.
Christian Kirk (1-11-0/3) is his favorite target…and he's caught 3 of 12 targets total the last two games, for 71 total yards. Kirk is falling from WR1 in PPR to WR3, on his way to too many WR4 weeks potentially. Teams are easily taking this away now.
Zay Jones (3-12-0/8) is his kinda second favorite target…and he missed Week 4, returned Week 5 for an under 50% connection rate, junk game as well.
Marvin Jones (7-104-0/11) was left open by the defense quite a bit, because they played to Kirk-Zay…and credit Trevor/Pederson for flowing over to Marvin more but I don't know that this is a new trend, a Marvin emergence or just a 1x event.
Evan Engram (6-69-0/10) might have had the best technical game of his career here…several up the seam/over-the-middle, in-stride catches. The Texans have a weakness against the TE…and the safeties were overplaying Kirk-Zay, and Engram took advantage…and Lawrence threw him some nice, easy, wide-open passes.
Just when I think I'm out on Evan Engram…they pull me back in…a little. Good matchup with Indy Week 6.
-- With Lawrence starting to crumble, the Jags may need to lean more on the run game.
Travis Etienne (10-71-0, 3-43-0/5) has moved into a pretty equal split with him and James Robinson (10-27-0, 2-12-0/2). Etienne is showing a little more spark in his runs…but it's still pretty flimsy work. I see 100 RBs who could do what Etienne is doing. I figured they get him more pass game work…it's so simple when you have a QB struggling so, but Etienne seems like an afterthought in the pass game…not a weapon/plan.
-- Davis Mills (16-24 for 140 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) making zero progress in 2022 tells you how bad Pep Hamilton is as an O-C. The league has been shutting out Hamilton for years…and we get reminded why every week watching Houston's offense. It's a shame, because Mills will take the blame. He's OK…but this offense is sad.
Mills has 3 TDs/4 INTs total in his last 4 games.
Brandin Cooks (4-20-0/6) is dying off.
Nico Collins (4-65-0/6) is actually showing a spark a la a discount Alec Pierce or George Pickens…the #2 WR in a terrible passing game, but is the option the QB will sometimes throw blindly too hoping they make a play…and they're starting to make those plays over and over.
Collins actually has more yards receiving this season than Cooks. He could…could move into a 1a-1b with Cooks, growing up with Mills all along, finally coming into his own…but this pass game is nothing, so it's hard to see the FF-treasure here – but Nico is back on the radar.
Snap Counts of Interest:
40 = Etienne
31 = JRob
46 = OJ Howard
24 = Schreck
10 = Akins
