2022 Week 5 Game Recap: Buccaneers 21, Falcons 15 (by Ross Jacobs)
Tampa mostly controlled this game from start to finish but things got a little dicey very late after Atlanta scored back to back TD's to cut the lead to 6. Trying to close the game out, Tom Brady was sacked on 3rd down by Grady Jarrett who got inexplicably called for roughing the passer. It was just one of several egregious penalties this weekend. It's possible Atlanta might have had a chance to win the game if they had gotten the ball back there, but it doesn't change the fact that they were getting spanked for 95% of the game until scrapping back into it late.
Atlanta is a feisty team that just seems to be a tough out for better teams right now. The talent isn't there yet but, for all his issues, Arthur Smith seems to be getting the best out of them. I don't understand his personnel usage but it's hard to argue against their results. Atlanta is getting a ton of mileage out of a very questionable roster. This team reminds me a lot of what's going on with the Giants right now. The roster sucks but the team as a whole is doing well...somehow. I'd like to see what both these coaching staffs can do with better talent over the next 2-3 years. I'm not all the way sold on Daboll or Smith but my interest is piqued.
We all know Tampa is going to win their division handily because everyone else can't get it together. Carolina is burnt toast, the Saints are falling apart, and Atlanta just isn't ready yet. I completely believe the theory that Brady sold his soul to the football gods because wherever he goes the competition just goes to crap. Tampa isn't the best team in the league but they are good enough to beat anyone on the right day and you know how tough it is to take down Tom in the playoffs. Injuries are starting to mount and it's holding them back a little but there's plenty of time to get healthy before the playoffs. Hard to bet against them one way or the other.
Fantasy Player Notes:
– Rookie TE Cade Otton got a ton of playing time here with Cameron Brate out and accounted for himself well. He didn't do anything amazing in the passing game but was reliable and solid. Brady was able to connect with him multiple times while the defense was focused on Fournette and the receivers. However, he seemed to be a clear upgrade over Brate as a blocker. We haven't heard any update on Brate as he deals with concussion protocol but Otton has clearly earned more playing time and Tom's trust so I expect to see him getting significant time for the rest of the year. If you're desperate for a TE Otton is as good an option as anyone right now.
– Another Tampa rookie is coming on really fast as well. Rachaad White was in and spelling Fournette far more frequently than I expected. He's ready to go should anything happen to Fournette and would instantly be an RB1.
– Chris Godwin left the game for a while when things looked under control but came back in late as Tampa was trying to close it. Not sure if he tweaked something or the team was just managing his snaps in what looked like a safe position. He should be fine but it's worth noting.
– This Atlanta offense looks just like the offense Arthur Smith ran in Tennessee. Lots of running, rollouts, simple reads for the QB. It's a ball control offense and just is not going to be a heavy volume passing attack. It's built for efficiency...which they aren't getting because Marcus Mariota looks twitchy and nervous and inaccurate. Things aren't getting better with him but I don't expect Atlanta to make the switch to Ridder until their record starts to fall apart. So long as they are in the mix they'll stick with Mariota.
If/when they do switch to Ridder I think you're going to see the on-field results improve slightly just because Ridder is going to be more comfortable and in-command than Mariota. He seems to be a much better leader than Mariota and that alone can change the perception of results. However, I don't expect it to change much for fantasy purposes. Ridder isn't a savior coming in to throw for 300 yards per game. He's not that guy. He's going to run Smith's robotic offense according to the book. Think Tannehill. That hasn't been very good for fantasy either outside of one stretch where they were destroying teams with Derrick Henry. Atlanta has no Henry.
– They do have Tyler Allgeier though and he's pretty good. He's as advertised, not a bruiser or a speedster, but just a natural, smooth RB. He reminds me of a big Elijah Mitchell or a less physical Jordan Howard, something like that. His time is coming.
It seemed like there was a lot of rotating going on between the three Atlanta RBs while watching the game, but when I checked the snap counts it was pretty heavily tilted towards Allgeier. He's the starter with Patterson out. The next two games are going to be rough against SF and Cincy, two of the better run defenses in the league, but things should ease up after that. It could be a nice run for Allgeier if we can make it that far.
– RC hasn't been very impressed with Drake London so far but I like what I'm seeing. This was a very tough matchup against a strong Tampa secondary and London played well. He could have much better numbers with better QB play but Mariota won't even throw the ball unless it's wide open. London needs a precision QB to unlock him. Think about the guy we constantly compare him to, Keenan Allen, not a great athlete but just destroys zone coverage and is a great pitch and catch option. That's London and he doesn't have the QB to get it to him with that style of play. Big things are possible here but something will have to change to get him to go higher for fantasy.
*RC NOTE: And I could be missing it because I like ‘sexy boy’ WRs…super athletes, freaks, etc. When you tend to look for freaks you miss a certain freaky skill of a WR…the ability to catch passes consistently in the NFL.
I worry anytime a WR isn’t overwhelming coverage with speed because I fear they cannot get open enough for their QB…especially if their QB is bad. I missed (in scouting) Keenan Allen as a star NFL WR, so not off the table I’m just not seeing it yet on London. I know he’s good…I know he has draft stock…I’m looking for a spark of something ‘wow’ like you see with Alec Pierce or Skyy Moore, but it hasn't hit me yet on London. He’s not in a great situation either, a la Kyle Pitts.
IDP Notes:
– Atlanta's defensive captain, Mykal Walker is starting to heat up. His tackles counts have been increasing every week and he had 11 tackles here despite playing only half the game due to a groin injury. He could be back for the SF game this week or next week at the latest. This is the same defense that helped Foyesade Oluokun lead the league in tackles last year which is why I've had my eye on Walker this year. If he's healthy it could be time to jump on board.
Snap Counts of Interest:
67 = Evans
58 = Gage
41 = Godwin
36 = Miller
49 = Fournette
31 = White
74 = Otton
44 = London
44 = Zaccheaus
21 = Byrd
41 = Hesse
30 = Franks
39 = Allgeier
17 = Williams
16 = Huntley
