2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 15 Game Analysis: Bears 33, Vikings 27 (Short Report)
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I normally write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
SHORT REPORT is an attempt at ‘just the facts’ report on this Week 15 game with a Week 16/title week focus for conveying what we need to know.
GAME ANALYSIS:
The Bears got up two scores midway in the 2nd-quarter, 17-7…and then up 20-7 before the Vikings cut it to 20-10 at the half. The Vikings would then score in the 2nd-half, cut it to a one score game and then the Bears would respond to go back up two scores…and back-and-forth it went between a two and one-score game with Minnesota closing it to one score late and had a few drives to take the lead, including the last drive of the game…they could just never get over the hump. The Vikings never led in this game. Chicago was the better, more determined team…looking like they were having fun while Minnesota played uptight and blew their playoff chances (most likely) with a tough loss at home.
Minnesota is now (6-8) and would need a perfect storm to get to the last wild card spot. They project to (7-9) and have a lot of questions to confront for 2021…which means they’ll just stick with their current core group and coaches.
The Bears (7-7) get the clutch win to stay alive and ahead of Minnesota (6-8) but chasing Arizona (8-6) for the final wild card spot. The Bears can get over/into the playoffs with a tiebreaker if they end up with identical records but that likely means the Bears must win out and Arizona must lose at least a game. It’s possible because Chicago has Jacksonville Week 16, and then facing Green Bay…who may have nothing to play for Week 17, potentially. We see the Bears stumbling to the finish and going (8-8) and just missing out on the playoffs.
Not much at all here for FF purposes from this game…
WHAT DO WE NEED TO KNOW FOR WEEK 16?
-- The TEs of FF-note in this game created more confusion/doubt than offered real solutions ahead…
Everyone liked the recent trend on Cole Kmet (2-12-0/2)…and he caught the first pass of the game, and then had one other target the other 59 minutes of play. How can you trust him Week 16…except he faces Jacksonville?
Irv Smith (3-37-0/4) didn’t do much for FF. He did drop a TD pass right in his hands. How can you trust him? He hasn’t cashed in on his opportunity with Kyle Rudolph out.
The reason why Irv has not cashed in…Tyler Conklin (3-57-1/4) looks better than Smith right now. Conklin had some great catch and run moments in this game. Two weeks in a row, Conklin has looked better than Smith (to me).
-- We’re all starting Allen Robinson (4-83-0/5) if we have him, but just note…ARob going back to face his original team Week 16 (JAX), where he was a bit slighted in the end of his run there. There’s always something to ‘revenge’ games on ex-teams who did you wrong. Just saying.
-- David Montgomery (32-146-2, 1-16-0/2) is on fire and I would not doubt it keeping up again this week.
-- Mitch Trubisky (15-21 for 202 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 8-34-0) had a weak FF game, but played a solid NFL game. You can see Mitch’s confidence growing and he even ran with some purpose in this game. Facing the Jags Week 16 is a great matchup for him.
ANY 2021 FUTURE THOUGHTS (Dynasty Offseason or Stash Items):
-- Darnell Mooney (4-49-1/5, 1-16-0) has all the makings of a future star. I know I keep saying that, but I do so to make a point. I see the ‘it’ here.
Who the coach and QB are in 2021 will determine how excited to get about it this offseason in Dynasty.
They are using Mooney like they should have all along in the past 2-3 weeks – bubble screens, jet sweeps. A TD in each of his last two games. A jet sweep in each of his last two games.
IDP/DST NOTES:
-- Chicago was missing two starting CBs in this game, and still pulled it off against the solid offense of the Vikings. Solid matchup against Jacksonville this week…but we’ll see if they get either or both of those CBs back.
I’m still skittish of going too hard against Gardner Minshew…he is sneaky good on a bad team, and he never quits/can do garbage time. But you have to at least like the Bears-DST this week…especially if they draw Mike Glennon.
-- 5th-round rookie CB Kindle Vildor (5 tackles) had his most playing time of 2020 for Chicago…5 tackles in 44% of the snaps played. Not bad for IDP, but he got beat bad on coverage…allowed 83.3% Comp. Pct. against him here and a TD.
SNAP COUNTS OF INTEREST:
56 = Irv Smith
45 = Conklin
57 = ARob
53 = Mooney
21 = Wims
16 = A Miller
***************************************************
College Football Metrics (CFM) 2021 subscriptions will be available for early sign up late December 2020/early January 2021.
It’s going to be a scouting NFL Draft season like no other – some top prospects opting out of their final college season, a unique schedule for CFB teams to have played, a different type of bowl season…a whole new backdrop to scout against. An experienced, talented scouting eye is going to rule. I have 10+ years of successful CFM scouting and analytics to lean on – I’m ready for the challenge.
I know the mainstream football analysis is going to butcher this year’s class even worse than normal – because they are going to blindly favor big school prospects more than ever, because those schools will have the only names they are truly familiar with, and it’s just the ‘name’ they are familiar with not their ‘game’. They’ll hive mind run with whatever names the collective seems to be buzzing about – because they don’t put in the work, they just echo things they’ve heard. I’m not saying that to be a jerk – it’s the open window of opportunity (their failure) that I was able to build my career/business upon.
I spend many hours each offseason day/week/month researching the current class of top 100+ prospects individually as well as all the smaller school and ‘lesser named’ prospects our computer models start to identify. I study and compare prospect’s tape, and I input the performance data (weighted with our secret, proprietary scouting formulas) to get a firsthand feel for it so I can analyze and test/challenge all our analytics. I get to know these prospects on the field, statistically, and do character background research as well -- so I can boil it down to reports so my private clients and subscribers (from serious fantasy players, to professional handicappers, to agents, to NFL war room personnel) can know these prospects by description and statistically – for NFL purposes, for Dynasty Rookie Draft purposes, for Fantasy Best Ball/Redraft purposes in the preseason, and for handicapping and prop betting purposes.
If you love Fantasy Football, if you love the NFL Draft process – I guarantee you’ll never look at the process the same way again with a CFM subscription.
As the regular season football ends, a whole new season of football discovery begins with our ‘CFM’ subscription and study or current and past rookies (offense and defense) – and material flows daily all offseason January to September (NFL season start), leading us to using the material to our advantage for the NFL regular season.
Go to our College Football Metrics or Fantasy Football Metrics subscription pages for more information. The new season sign up information will begin posting in the second half of December 2020.
***************************************************
