2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Packers 31, Lions 24
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game result can just go in one part of your brain and out the other. It seems obvious…the Packers scored a lot of points and beat the Lions, no big deal. This game is just striking me as odd…a trend with the Packers…
The Packers were big favorites here and everyone assumed they’d stomp the Lions out easily. But it was 14-14 at halftime. 21-14 GB after three quarters. The Pack got up 28-14 with 12 minutes left and everything seemed fine. But the Lions scored to cut it to 28-21 with 6+ minutes left. In the end, Chase Daniel entered and drove Detroit down the field easily and made the Packers sweat a little bit at the end – but Green Bay won it (didn’t cover the spread).
As I was watching this game and seeing the Lions as sloppy/flimsy -- I’m wondering how Detroit was staying in this game. The week prior, with Wentz at QB, the Eagles did the same thing to Green Bay – cut the lead to a TD with 6+ minutes remaining before GB put it away late. I don’t know if Green Bay is ‘flip the switch’ good…or very sloppy and fortunate to play a bunch of bad teams most of the season (and last season) – they played four playoff teams last season and are pacing for the same this season (ignoring MIN, who might make it). The Lions will play eight 2020 playoff teams this season (ignoring MIN) by comparison.
In 2020, so far, the Packers have played three games against teams with a winning record…they beat the Saints Week 3, and then got smoked/embarrassed by Tampa Bay Week 6, the Colts came back to beat them in OT Week 11. I don’t see a real ‘it’ factor with the Packers…aside from Aaron Rodgers throwing to Davante Adams to the surprise of every defense they face.
Green Bay is now (10-3) and the #1 seed in the NFC, but they don’t feel like the best team in the NFC. I think the Rams would crush them head-to-head. I think the Saints are better than them, now, as well. Seattle is arguably better. Regardless, the Pack has a great schedule to finish with 12-13 wins this season and getting that #1 seed…a huge advantage making teams go to Lambeau in January.
Detroit (5-8) has had chance after chance to stay in the playoff hunt, but they’re just about done. A loss to Tennessee this week should finish them off. The Lions will likely finish with 5-6 wins in the end.
I re-watched this to see more Chase Daniel in action, for projections for Week 15’s sake (and Daniel might start the ROS). Outside of Daniel’s scouting…there’s not a lot to discuss here for FF Week 15+.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- OK, so we will have Chase Daniel (3-6 for 29 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) for Week 15…and possibly the ROS. How does this affect the Lions and their related weapons for FF?
First off, Chase Daniel isn’t terrible. He isn’t good, but also not the worst. He’s a ‘D’ grade QB who, if you let him play it safe…he’ll manage the offense. If there’s pressure and/or great coverage…and 3rd & long with him throwing medium or deep…he’s in trouble.
Facing the Titans Week 15…might not be the worst. The Titans are not a high-end pass defense by any means, nor do they typically pressure the QB. The Titans are dead last in the NFL in pressures per drop backs to pass in the NFL.
Daniel will likely relay on three things…
Short, timing passes to Danny Amendola (6-66-0/7)…Amen could have another stat line in Week 15 just like this one Week 14.
Dump offs to D’Andre Swift (7-24-1, 4-26-0/5) – could be a similar stat line Week 15, but with Swift getting more carries.
T.J. Hockenson (6-43-1/11) could be at some risk of falling off his recent top 5 FF TE run. Daniel seemed way off-track throwing to him in this limited view. Tight window, over the middle…not a Daniel strong suit.
When Daniel needs to go downfield, surely he’ll lean on Marvin Jones (4-48-0/8) but without Kenny Golladay, Jones will draw top coverage…and Daniel is not a gifted deeper thrower. Marvin may be more decoy than FF-producer Week 15.
Figure Daniel will have 200 +/- passing yards, 1 passing TD…maybe a 2nd in garbage time at best. The Lions to score two TDs all game, tops. And who gets those TDs will be a mystery. My #1 bet is: if the Lions get close to the end zone, it will be a swing pass to Swift for the score. Daniel reading the defense in the red zone, a shortened field, making a zippy pass in traffic to a receiver for a score – not as likely.
With that…the most confidence for FF pertaining to Daniel – the Titans-DST scoring projection.
-- Side note, D’Andre Swift looked fine in his return to action from missing the prior weeks with a concussion. He played double+ the snaps of AP. Just not a game where the Lions could run/control the game…they were chasing and only had the ball for 24+ minutes.
-- I don’t want to hear about Marquez Valdes-Scantling (6-85-1/6) as a rising star and neat Week 15 option -- the two games prior to this, MVS played/started, played #2 WR snaps…and had no catches on 2 targets Week 13, and prior to that (Week 12) no targets. Yes, 79% of the offensive snaps played Week 12…and he saw no targets.
Allen Lazard (2-19-0/3) is suffering a similar fate...lightly, randomly used in the passing game and playing 50-65% of the snaps.
Whatever you football talent-think about MVS or Lazard, Aaron Rodgers keeps telling us what we should FF-think – don’t waste your time.
What?
Like you’re planning to start MVS this week? You aren’t. I hope you aren’t.
Lazard will have a nice game, on your FF-bench…then you try and start him the next 1-2-3 weeks for nothing FF-useful…then back-and-forth you go, never getting it right. So, what’s the point of holding Lazard? It’s not a Lazard thing…it’s an Aaron Rodgers thing.
Chad Hansen for Houston hasn’t played football in like two years and walked into the Texans starting lineup and has had two consistent, nice FF game outputs – but MVS or Lazard never do.
Rodgers only throws to Davante, and defenses can’t stop it…so it’s never going to change, so why fight it or try to out guess it (and I can’t blame Rodgers when it’s always wide open)? Lazard only exists as a Davante handcuff. Sad but true.
-- Robert Tonyan (5-36-1/5) IS becoming the Davante alternative.
His last 4 games:
4.8 rec., 46.5 yards, 1.0 TDs per game.
Since Week 11…the #4 PPR PPG TE in fantasy.
Since Week 3, Tonyan is the #3 non-PPR PPG TE in fantasy…a tick behind Darren Waller. He’s #3 in PPR PPG in that span as well…a couple pts per game behind #2 Waller.
9 TDs for Tonyan in his last 12 games.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
62 = Adams
47 = MVS
46 = Lazard
47 = Jones
20 = Jamaal
36 = Swift
16 = AP
14 = Kerryon
