2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Ravens 47, Browns 42
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I’m really not a fan of any particular team, just whatever team I’ve bet on that particular moment…but I was a Browns fan in spirit last night. I really wanted them to get over on the Ravens, for Baker’s sake…for AFC North chaos’s sake…for long suffering Browns’ fan sakes.
As soon as I saw the Brownies tie it with a minute left, I knew Justin Tucker was winning that game…and he did.
I pray more of you won your FF games by the Tucker last second kick then those beaten by the final play being ruled a safety for the Ravens defense.
We could pick through this game to complain about why one coach did this or didn’t do that and they shoulda done something else. In the end, it was just a highly entertaining game that either team could’ve won. The Ravens losing so many defensive players in-game and then losing Lamar for a series+…that all factored in as well, but the Ravens won so ‘who cares’? The Browns proved they are solid but not quite ready for the big time (they should’ve put Baltimore away when they had them down early)…but it ends up a loss that quasi-feels like a win.
Baltimore sustaining/playing through so many injuries and losing Lamar for a stretch and playing at Cleveland…to go in and win this game, coming from behind – gritty win. Still, the 2020 Ravens look nothing like the 2019 domination team they had.
The Ravens get to (8-5) with the win, and keep their playoff hopes alive. They can win out (JAX-NYG-CIN) and get to (11-5) and a strong wild card. At minimum, they should be (10-6) and a wild card for sure.
The Browns are now (9-4) and will also be a wild card. They have the Jets Week 16, so they will get to a minimum 10 wins -- and that’s a wild card spot as well. The Browns might hit 11 wins in the end. Baltimore has the tiebreaker over them for seeding with a pair of victories over the Browns this season.
Either way…both the Browns and Ravens are playoff bound, as are the two top AFC South teams (IND and TEN). There will be one spot left for the wild card/#7 seed…it’s between Miami, Las Vegas, and New England.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- It’s so good to see Baker Mayfield (28-47 for 343 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 5-23-1) coming into his own…so good for me. I thought he was going to be a top FF scorer in 2019…unleashed by Freddie Kitchens to throw at will. The opposite happened.
That guy I was looking for in 2019, he’s starting to arise in 2020…
Back-to-back 330+ yard passing games for Baker.
8 TDs/1 INT in his last three games…the #3 FF PPG QB in that span (4pts per pass TD).
13 TDs/2 INTs his last 7 games.
Take away/ignore his two games played in high wind gusts (all passing games died in those games): 23 TD passes in 11 games this season…over 2+ passing TDs per game. That’s high-end performance as a passer.
I’m not discussing Baker with the Mahomes-Allen-Herbert-Murray types for FF, because his offense isn’t set up for that kind of FF success (in my opinion) – but Baker has talent like them, as a passer…he’s got QB1 aspirations for the future again. So good to see…so good to see I’m not crazy with what I saw with Baker.
We’re getting to the point where an NFL team/the Cleveland Browns having Baker…they got a chance to win games strictly because of Baker. He led Cleveland back several times in this game. He’s starting to ‘feel it’ in the NFL. His talent could not be hidden for long. OBJ being gone has reignited Baker’s career.
-- I’d rather have Baker as my NFL QB than Lamar Jackson (11-17 for 163 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 9-124-2) but LJax is definitely more fun to watch.
Lamar is starting to score again for fantasy as well. Weeks 12-14, I mentioned that Bakeris the #3 QB in FF PPG scoring among QBs in that span…well, Lamar is #1. Another big week potential for Jackson this week vs. Jacksonville.
-- Lamar is starting to score for fantasy because he’s just taking the offense…he’s doing it himself. That mindset is killing off everything else Ravens for fantasy.
How can you trust J.K. Dobbins (13-53-1) in this offense for FF? He's in a split with Gus Edwards (7-49-01-4-0/1) and Lamar is taking much of the juicy run game activity. You can’t trust JKD next week…or next season. Lamar isn’t going anywhere nor is he changing his approach.
Nor will John Harbaugh change his approach.
Nor can Marquise Brown (2-50-1/6) catch passes. If Diontae Johnson is getting benched in-game for ‘drops’, the Brown should be as well. Diontae’s issue is mental…Brown’s issue is – he’s not even positioning his hands to catch passes properly. He’s catching passes like if I tossed you an infant to him – to make that catch you’d create a basket with your arms to haul it in…that’s what Brown is doing, trying to catch passes with his arms trapping it to his chest. That’s a bad sign/flaw…he’s not trusting his hands and is overcompensating/adjusting his catch style.
Brown’s career is in real trouble of being a ‘bust’. FYI…he was the top WR picked in his draft. The surest bet in all of life – whatever WR is taken first by the NFL in a draft (the past several years this is true)…sure fire bust/disappointment/nowhere close to the top WR in his class when we look back a few years from now. That’s the holy, unquestionable NFL scouting for you…
-- One of the reasons why I can’t see Baker Mayfield as a top 3-5 FF QB ahead is the Browns are built for a strong run game. They possess two of the best RBs in the NFL right now.
Just two quick comments on them…
No RB is running with more passion than Kareem Hunt (6-33-1, 6-77-1/7). No one is working harder, running with reckless abandon (in a good way), than Hunt. He’s a top 10-15 RB in the NFL…and he’s the ‘backup’ for Cleveland. Kudos to the former GM who got fired last year…who doesn’t seem all that dumb right about now…looking at all of the Browns’ roster.
Nick Chubb (17-82-2, 2-21-0/2) is the single best-looking runner/RB, to my scouting eye, in the NFL. Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. Chubb is yielding numbers to Kareem Hunt, which is NFL-smart but FF mild depressing, but Chubb is putting up big numbers despite that.
2021 fantasy RB rankings…Henry/McCaffrey…Cook…???...Chubb?
-- As Baker rises, so does his surrounding weaponry…
Rashard Higgins (6-68-1/10) is finally settling in as the guy I was looking for 4-5 weeks ago but gave up on – but I think the wind gust games hurt him and hid him.
6.0 rec., 81.5 yards, 1.0 TDs per game the past two games. Oddly, you know how many fumbles he had in this game? Four. None of them lost.
Actually, the Browns had 7 fumbles…none of them lost in this game.
Donovan Peoples-Jones (3-74-0/5) made some plays here too. He’s a pretty solid NFL WR prospect. Iffy for high FF production, but a very solid hand for an NFL team. He’s showing some blips/signs of a future.
I knew Jarvis Landry (6-52-0/9) would get shut down with CB Jimmy Smith back…and Landry was getting cut off completely, but then Smith got hurt and Landry got freed up to have a decent game. You may be sick of me talking about Jimmy Smith, but it’s a real thing to have to plan around. The Browns got back into this about the time Smith went down again.
-- The Browns-DST is primed to lead fantasy teams to the title the next two weeks…at NYG, at NYJ Weeks 15-16. A perfect storm/opportunity.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
44 = Chubb
39 = Hunt
55 = Bryant
51 = Njoku
37 = Dobbins
16 = Edwards
06 = J Hill
01 = Ingram (the first play of the game)
