2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Raiders 28, Jets 24
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Raiders were pulling away from the Jets…a mid-3rd-quarter TD put Las Vegas up 24-13, and all looked right with the world.
On my Sunday morning Video Q&A pregame show, I talked about why I didn’t take LV for my ‘Survivor Pool’ pick (still alive through Week 13, thanks to the Vikings…never had a doubt)…that something just didn’t feel right about this game. However, by mid-3rd-quarter it looked like those fears might be unfounded.
Then the Jets scored a TD with 10+ minutes left. Then they scored another TD with 5+ minutes left and suddenly NYJ led the game 28-24.
The Raiders got the ball back, drove down the field, and fell short. It felt like the Jets had finally won a game! But when the Raiders gave the ball back to the Jets…NY proceeded to lose the way they lost to the Patriots late a few weeks ago – blowing a lead with a bad offense incapable of getting a 1st-down when needed. All the Jets needed to do was get one 1st-down and seal the deal…and they went three & out in the span of 0:55 seconds.
The Raiders had to go 61 yards in 0:35 seconds with no timeouts to win. Impossible…except for ‘this is the Jets’. On 3rd & 10 with seconds remaining, Henry Ruggs put a basic move on his cornerback, who bit and Ruggs went deep for a bomb/untouched 46-yard score to win because the Jets were not in a prevent defense.
Las Vegas was the better team, but not by much and they allowed the Jets to hang around. Actually, the Jets almost won the moment Frank Gore was hurt early – because it forced the Jets to use some talented RBs they’ve ignored, and those two backs combined for 178 yards rushing on 30 carries without Gore. They almost got the Jets to a win, but the Jets can’t not be the Jets.
The Raiders (7-5) saved their season with the lucky win…or it would’ve been three losses in a row and some chaos in the desert. Instead, Vegas has opportunity (or death) all in front of them…facing (8-4) Indy Week 14…the winner getting a huge boost for the wild card. Then Week 16 hosting Miami could be another huge wild card moment for the winner.
NYJ has a tough schedule the rest of the way. Week 16 hosting Cleveland might be an opportunity. Week 17 at New England, if the Pats are out of the playoffs and playing for nothing – which, if you’re Belichick…you want the Jets to beat you if it means they’d then miss out on Trevor Lawrence, right? Wouldn’t you think Belichick wants him out of the division? If there is a future’s bet on Week 17, NYJ at NE…take the points and the Jets right now.
Late Breaking News Monday: The Jets fired Gregg Williams. A couple thoughts…
1) He is a cancer to management wherever he goes, so you knew this was coming eventually…from the first day he was signed.
Do NFL teams ever learn? I submit to you, for the ten millionth time…they do not.
2) He deserved the firing after not switching coverage up on Darren Waller, while getting brutalized by him all Week 13. Also, not being in a prevent type coverage late to avoid the Ruggs event.
3) He was the driving force behind this aggressive defense…built for him, by him. They will rollover next week…I’m all-the-way-the-hell-in on Seattle over the Jets Week 14. My Survivor Pick for Week 14, almost a lock that it will be Seattle. We’ll see if COVID changes anything midweek…
This Jets defense is going from bad-to-worse off this news. Offensive players will shine against them for sure. SEA-LAR-CLE the next three games.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Frank Gore (1-2-0) got concussed on his first hit of the game. Most likely, he will miss Week 14. No need to thrust him back into the action…but we’ll see, ‘this is the Jets’.
Rookie dud LaMichal Perine is on I.R. with the earliest he can return being Week 15.
Week 14 will likely feature the two ‘stars’ of Week 13 for the Jets…the unwanted-by-their-own-team’s-coaches ‘stars’ – Ty Johnson (22-104-1, 2-13-0/2) and Josh Adams (8-74-0).
It was Johnson given the push upon the Gore injury. It was Adams who started popping big runs when he got his shot, but immediately upon seeing that success the Jets had to get Adams out of there so he wouldn’t mess their failure plan up. *For the record, if you’re new to FFM, I believe Josh Adams should be a starting RB in the NFL today. I like Ty Johnson’s talent OK, and he should have been playing ahead of Perine all along – but Adams is the real runner talent here.
Just so you know I’m not crazy. Adams came in and had three 10+ yard rushes in his 8 carries. His final two carries both for 10+ yards…notice I said ‘final’ carries. After back-to-back 10+ yard totes in the 3rd-quarter, he never carried the ball again if my notes are correct. This is the Jets.
If you had to guess what the Jets will do Week 14, you would guess they do two things…
1) Whatever makes the least sense/is the least helpful towards winning.
2) Do exactly what they did Week 13 when the ‘crisis’ hit.
The answer to both #1 and #2…is heavy Ty Johnson with Josh Adams sprinkled in. Johnson saw 39 snaps/24 touches, Adams 19 snaps/8 touches this game.
Johnson for a spot start Week 14…he’s got some upside. It’s a spot against Seattle, a decent run defense against a bad Jets run game. If Gore can go Week 14…Gore will lead, and Johnson will see 4-5 touches, at best.
Ty J is ‘hope’ but not ‘wow’ for Week 14. Perine comes back Week 15, and if healthy, he immediately goes back to the starter…and Gore would be the backup/relief back when he’s healthy. Whichever backs are there for Week 15…facing the Rams, they’re all dead on that matchup.
-- Devontae Booker (16-50-0, 1-1-0/2) got his big chance to start, and it was underwhelming. Good play by a vastly improved Jets run defense and Booker looked fine but bottled up most of the game.
I think there’s a chance Josh Jacobs misses Week 15 v. IND, so Booker would draw another start – but if the LV run game was bottled up by the Jets…it’s definitely getting halted by the Colts. But Booker would see 15+ carries again for what that is FF-worth.
I think Jacobs is less than 50-50 to face the Colts, as of this writing, as I proposed was an issue last Tuesday on the Video Q&A. When LV gave a tryout to Spencer Ware last week…you knew something had management spooked on Jacobs’ recovery time.
-- Darren Waller (13-200-2/17) did nothing overly special in this game…it’s just the Jets single covered him with a slow linebacker one-on-one and Carr kept throwing it because Waller was wide open and the Jets didn’t really adjust to it until later in the game…and that didn’t really even matter.
Week 14 for LV…the Colts are maybe the best defense covering the tight end in the NFL, so it will be an interesting matchup. Not that you sit Waller or anything, but many of you with Waller going in the first playoff game of 2020…you wish Waller were not facing a shutdown-the-TE defense.
-- Nelson Agholor (4-38-0/11) is starting to stumble to the finish line. The Raiders #1 WR (which doesn’t mean squat in this offense) did not look great here in what should’ve been a very easy matchup. He’s banged up/was questionable for this game earlier in the week…so, it could be a physical slowdown.
His numbers have been tailing off the past few weeks…even with a bump in targets the last few weeks. Either he needs time to heal or Bryan Edwards (0-0-0/1) is going to start seeing a few more snaps/touches to try and reclaim that starting role. Regardless…it’s hard to FF-trust anything outside of Jacobs-Waller on the Raiders.
-- It’s fair to say Henry Ruggs (3-84-1/4) is trending upwards…his last two games 3.0 rec., 70.0 yards, 0.50 TDs per game…but the 46-yard TD in one-on-one coverage here when they Jets should’ve been in prevent gives him all the statistical boost to be a head fake.
Fantasy analysts are going to point to his last 2-4 game averages as proof of an uptrend, but this somewhat fortuitous game winning TD is driving attention away from what is a WR4 story. If you can’t trust Agholor here, you can’t trust the lesser targeted, less-important-to-Carr WR in Ruggs for FF purposes.
-- Denzel Mims (2-40-0/3) had a couple of nice 15+ yard catches, but just two this week…and no real signs of an ‘it’ moment. He’s playing very low-key good football. I can see the slow progression to real NFL WR. I just haven’t seen the moment where I go ‘wow’, yet.
Not sure I’ll get it with him + Sam Darnold (14-23 for 186 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT).
Darnold’s ‘guy’ is Jamison Crowder (5-47-2/7), who got back to his WR1 with Darnold ways here in this game, after a week off of that with last week’s dud.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = Perriman
50 = Mims
42 = Crowder
05 = Berrios
39 = Ty Johnson
19 = Adams
02 = Gore
33 = Booker
32 = Richard
13 = Riddick
