2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Lions 34, Bears 30
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
In the 1st-half of this game, everything made sense. The sad Lions were losing to the more desperate/still in the playoff hunt Bears 23-13 at halftime. The Bears didn’t look ‘great’ or anything, but 23 points scored in a half is nice for the Bears’ offense and somewhat expected versus a suspect Lions defense.
In the 2nd-half, I felt like had Matt Patricia been there…the Lions would’ve just rolled over and died. But, with Patricia fired the week prior, a collegiate spirit rose up/was there all game and the Lions were playing ‘free’ and ‘excited’…and they climbed back into the game.
When the Lions cut the Bears’ lead to 30-27 with 2:18 left, all Chicago needed to do was get a little drive going to run the clock out and win. On 3rd & 4, inside their own 20, Mitch Trubisky dropped back to pass and was stripped of the ball…turnover, Lions set up in great position – and they scored a quick TD to take a 34-30 lead with 1:37 remaining. Still time for the Bears.
Chicago drove right down the field and got to the Lions 20 for a 4th & 1 play with 0:16 left. The Bears chose to run it…David Montgomery stuffed…ballgame.
The mood of the Bears. The vibe…was much like the Matt Patricia Lions – not much spark or confidence, etc. This may be the game that was the final tipping point for Matt Nagy and the GM to get swept away in a few weeks. A loss to the Lions in a must-win spot, despite a 10-point lead at one point in the 4th-quarter.
With the win, the Lions are now (5-7) and just a game back of the last wild card spot. (8-8) will be the final wild card…the Lions at least have some playoff life. They also have some wins that could matter in tiebreakers – over Arizona (6-6) and Washington (5-7). However, the schedule ahead is not set up well for a miracle finish – GB, at TEN, TB, MIN. Detroit likely finishes at their current 5 wins…maybe sneaks a 6th win in there.
The Bears fall to (5-7) and are in danger of finishing in last place in the division. They have a little better path ahead to get to (8-8). They face HOU, at MIN, at JAX, GB the final four games. If they beat Houston this week to get to (6-7), they are likely facing (6-7) Minnesota for both of their playoff lives. The Bears would project to lose that contest, ultimately wind up (7-9) and let the firings begin.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I have a few ‘interesting’ (you’ll see) tidbits from this game, but my main thing I want to say (again): Darnell Mooney (4-43-0/6) has the makings of a superstar…I can see it.
I can see ‘it’.
I did earlier this season. I know ‘it’ when I see ‘it’ – and I see ‘it’ here.
Mooney might be the better Diontae Johnson – same feet off the snap, faster long speed, better hands (especially the last 2 weeks).
Mooney is starting to move and work with the similarities/confidence of Justin Jefferson. Yeah, that’s right. I said ‘it’.
Now, before you get too excited…
…but you should get excited…
But before getting too far out there…
Mooney is not working with ‘Quick Draw McDraw’ Big Ben throwing him 7,000 targets a game like Diontae is.
Mooney does not have Kirk Cousins either, nor can he work in the luxury of a home dome to maximize his speed demon ways.
Mooney plays in sloggy Chicago/Soldier’s Filed with low-end QB play and a terrible offensive mind for a head coach – in a world of WRs running jet sweeps for 5+ yards every time they do it…the 4.38 fleet feet of Mooney has run the ball ONCE this season. How does the Bears coaching staff not see NFL games and want to copy success and realize they have the perfect guy to try it with? You don’t need to answer…I know the answer.
It’s not going to be easy to overcome the obstacles and become a receiving/FF star playing for Chicago, as far as any of us can see into the near future. He might…he might not. What if the Bears get worse at head coach and QB next year?
All I know is this – Mooney is looking like, moving like an FF-future star. When we start to see the payoff is anyone’s guess.
Such a great opportunity this week vs. Houston. Not sure he will be allowed to take advantage of ‘it’.
-- Ok, you ready for this one? This is a first…
I thought this was the best game I’ve seen from David Montgomery (17-72-2, 4-39-0/4) in his career. He was moving better than I remember ever seeing him before – the best spring in his step, displaying some of that notorious ‘bounciness’.
He’s still overrated and shouldn’t be a full NFL lead, but DM looks fresh, confident, and effective. Useful for fantasy purposes.
In fact, Montgomery may be a guy that I target for 2021. The price is lower. The new car smell has worn off. If the new coach/GM doesn’t add any RBs of note…I’m willing to run with a mediocre/bad RB if they’re going to get all the work. I drafted falling (due to injury Week 1) Montgomery this preseason in redrafts on that same premise.
What’s the point of FF-owning a physical talent like Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, Devin Singletary (the better version of Montgomery), or a Darrell Henderson…if they’re in an RBBC, and/or have the QB rushing for all the TDs, and/or don’t see the pass game work?
You’re better off with Wayne Gallman of the moment…or David Montgomery being worshipped by their coaches or forced all the touches just because. Myles Gaskin is my new hero.
-- OK, how about this… (and it was a faithful FFMer who told me to go back and look at what’s developing)
Cole Kmet (5-37-1/7) is on the TE1 viability list for Weeks 14, and 15, and 16.
Why?
Weeks 1-9, Kmet was a rotational TE behind Jimmy Graham getting 30-40% snaps in a game and lucky to see 1-2 targets (8 targets his first 9 games of 2020).
Week 10, Kmet started playing 70% of the snaps and becoming ‘the starter’. Targets of 3 and 3 and then 7 targets (this game) in his three games ‘starting’.
I don’t think Kmet is anything special, but he’s not ‘bad’. Like with RBs…an FF tight end’s best quality is ‘playing time’ and ‘targets’ (and ‘QB they’re playing with’). Kmet is not much different a species than T.J. Hockenson (7-84-0/9) – big, bulky, prototype TEs who have average speed but a big frame and solid enough hands…and they come with ‘draft stock, so coaches are going to force them into the action…they’re going to get action just by being on the field.
Robert Tonyan is a better version of this because of the QB he plays with, and he’s a better athlete than most TEs (the former college WR). Hockenson works with a solid-ish Stafford/good playing conditions (dome) for the passing game (hell, TJH is the #4 PPR PPG TE in fantasy this year…by attrition).
Kmet has a bad field in December and weaker QB play. However, the field conditions can work in his favor a bit – he’s a short, simple throw in a stunted offense. We saw some signs of that this week, in good passing conditions. There’s a nice, simple pitch-and-catch with Trubisky-Kmet developing.
Hard to make a call for a rise to TE1 out of nowhere, but he’s playing the snaps to help…and HOU-MIN-JAX the next 3 weeks. It’s something to consider among the Dissly-Sample-Akins crowd.
-- Case in point on ‘it’s better for an FF RB to be mildly talented but be worshipped by his coach than to be a Combine delight prospect with a ton of talent’ – Adrian Peterson (16-57-2, 0-0-0/1).
You would have been wise to have AP over Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley for Weeks 12-13 of 2020 season.
D’Andre Swift is still unknown to comeback Week 14. It could be another AP week again this week.
-- May I get something off my chest? May I be salty about it? Many of you will appreciate this next statement.
Thanks for nothing, Marvin Jones (8-116-1/12)…you stupid Son of a B.
Oh, how clever it was by me to go heavy RB in preseason redrafts and just fade WRs because you could get undervalued guys like Marvin Jones and laugh all the way to the FF title.
By Week 3-4-5, I had to cut Marvin everywhere…he sucked. The Lions sucked. He was doing nothing. Good riddance.
Since Week 8, he’s the #12 WR in PPR PPG in fantasy (4 or more games played).
He has 5 TDs in his past 6 games and 6.5 catches per game the past 4 weeks.
…and I own him nowhere during all this…during all what I was looking for to start the 2020 season.
Hey, at least my Best Ball teams are prospering.
Hey, at least I don’t look like a full-on stupid idiot for promoting him for 2020. In raw PPR points, he’s #30 among all WRs this season. I just got the order of events wrong…or God hates me.
-- My final item, my aggravation with Mitch Trubisky (26-34 for 267 yards, 1 TD/0 INT)…
He could’ve been so much better.
Half the blame on Matt Nagy. Half the blame on mitch…he doesn’t have the heart for this. He has all the tools…he’s a ‘five tool’ QB prospect. He just doesn’t have the 6th tool (so far) -- heart, courage, aggression.
Every time Trubisky could be running his way out of trouble, or for offense, and then keeping defense’s honest with his feet…he won’t take off and run. He’s scared. He should be the elite version of Taysom Hill…but Taysom has guts and heart that Trubisky doesn’t have.
Trubisky is never going to succeed until he has a heart transplant. His career could only be saved by one head coach, maybe two getting his head tweaked – Sean McDermott or Matt Rhule. Trubisky as the backup to Josh Allen is genius if the Bills can pull it off. I mean, Matt Barkley is not going to do anything for anyone.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = Mooney
51 = ARob
39 = A Miller
28 = Wims
52 = DMontg
17 = CPatt
64 = Marvin Jones
40 = Sanu
33 = Amendola
32 = AP
30 = Kerryon
06 = Jon Williams
