2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Packers 24, Jaguars 20

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

When I watched this live, I was like…good for the Jags, they played a tough game and shoulda won this thing. It was 17-17 after three quarters. 20-17 Jags into the 4th-quarter. Green Bay up 24-20 and Jacksonville drove with 2+ minutes left down to the GB 35-yard line, and the Jags had plenty of time to get into the end zone to win…and then on 2nd & 10 the Pack sacked Jake Luton, then on 3rd-down they sacked him again…then it was 4th & a million and…ball game. It was a ‘scare’ for Green Bay.

But when I re-watched this, I realized the Jags tried hard but the Packers were kinda going through the motions on a game they thought they’d win easy, and in the cold, wet, wind they did what they had to do. The Packers blew some opportunities and kinda muddled. It was one of those games where it was close, but not really…I don’t think the Packers were ever really panicked.

Green Bay is now (7-2) and their schedule is begging them to finish (14-2), but 12-13 wins is probably more likely. After they face the Colts Week 11…they may not play a team with a winning record (by season’s end) the rest of the season.

Jacksonville loses its 8th in a row. Trying to get into that Tank for Trevor race/#1 spot, and I’m sure Trevor is praying the Jags figure out a way to get to that #1 pick versus having to play in New York. The Jaguars just placed rookie CB C.J. Henderson on I.R., and he’s like their best player…so a (1-15) finish is in range more and more.

Not a lot of earth-shattering notes from this game. It went according to plan, for the most part, and then the cold, wet, wind affected things as well.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (4-149-1/6) is on a hot run the past few weeks. Three notes…

1) This could’ve all been Allen Lazard’s FF-goodness, but when I like a WR they get hurt and when I hate a WR -- they get these numbers.

2) MVS scored a 78-yard TD here aided by a referee knocking into/picking a tackler and springing him for the extra 30 yards and a score, because of course he did. I’ve never had something like that happen for one of my FF starts, but my opponents get this type of stuff all the time...it seems, doesn’t it?

3) I’d sell MVS off this as fast as you could…thrown into a deal to sweeten it. This will disappear fast when Lazard returns. There is no MVS future for FF.

 -- Davante Adams (8-66-1/12) got tangled up feet with a DB and hurt his calf/ankle and left the game for some time, but then returned for an amazing, leaping TD catch to seal the win. I bet he’s sore, but he’ll be fine for Week 11…is my assumption.

 -- Robert Tonyan (3-33-0/4) had a ‘meh’ FF game, or actually…this is TE1 work these days…but note Rodgers just missed him on a 15+ yard throw, and then a heart-breaking 20-40+ yarder where Tonyan was sprinting open downfield and Rodgers underthrew it and was offline with it…or it might have been a long TD catch and run.

In a sea of TE2s trying to have a TE1 week…Tonyan is still viable.

 -- D.J. Chark (4-56-0/5) had a ‘meh’ FF game, but also note he was open by 2-3 yards on a 50+ yard bomb TD but Luton underthrew it/the wind caught it and DJC had to stop and wait and the DB caught up and the ball went off the DBs helmet. You almost had +12 to his PPR week.

 -- Keelan Cole (5-47-1/5) had a good game and returned a punt for a TD. There’s one thing you can count on with Cole – there will be no effort the following week to get him the ball, no matter how well he plays.  

Facing the Steelers this week…bet against him. It’s a shame, he deserves better.

 -- Everybody wants James Robinson (23-109-0, 2-3-0/5)…in the sense that they pine for him, if they didn’t get him preseason, as the answer to all their RB issues.

There is no answer to your RB issues at this stage…and, actually, a whole bunch of answers every week at the same time.

If you don’t have Cook-Kamara (or healthy CMC) the names atop the RB PPG board are guys who are basically the RBs who haven’t gotten hurt…or the names of the guys that have replaced those who got hurt.

D’Andre Swift, Gio Bernard, Antonio Gibson, Nyheim Hines, J.D. McKissic are RB1s who are one good game and one bad game by Robinson away from being the same output per game guys the 2nd-half of the season. You’re caught up in ‘names’, when there is RB opportunity all over.

Kalen Ballage was a flyer pickup a few weeks ago and is now an RB1 to believe in. You should’ve had McKissic in PPR all along the past 6-7 weeks. But you want to pine for James Robinson instead.

You think you have RB issues…everyone has RB issues. Solutions are cheap off waivers week-to-week, they are expensive chasing the James Robinson’s of the world. Any RB getting the bulk of the work is valuable right now – the best ones are those that fall into the end zone more frequently.

Since Week 7, here’s the top 10 PPR PPG RB leaders (2 or more games played):

Dalvin Cook

Kamara

J. Robinson

Nyheim Hines

Antonio Gibson

Gio Bernard

Jamaal Williams

Wayne Gallman

Kalen Ballage

Josh Jacobs

Four names you crave…six names you think are ‘my RBs are killing me’.

 -- The review on Jake Luton’s (18-35 for 169 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) 2nd start in the NFL?

He did as well as he could’ve on the road, in wet-cold-win conditions with an inferior team. He looks totally capable, and for the 2nd week in a row…he should have been on the winning team. Had a chance late but couldn’t seal the deal.

 -- The GB-DST is doing OK, they’ve had some good matchups lately, they are winning games – they just aren’t scoring much for FF. They are 19th in FF scoring per game among all DSTs YTD.

They held a weak Jags offense to 20 points here, but just one turnover and a solid 3.0 sacks. You hope for more FF scoring from them in these types of matchups, but GB-DST doesn’t give it to you typically.

They have a solid schedule the rest of the way, but I don’t know that they’ll score enough real FF points to matter. They’ll win games, but not help you win FF games perhaps. But in a sea of bad DST tallies this year, you have to find hope in strange places sometimes. Their schedule ahead is at least something to consider.

Snap Counts of Interest:

41 = A Jones

31 = J Williams

08 = Ervin

56 = Chark

55 = Conley

52 = Cole

53 = JRob

10 = Ogunbowale