2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 8 Game Analysis: Vikings 28, Packers 22
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Who saw this coming? Not, I.
I just assumed the Packers would continue their Matt LaFleur dominance over Mike Zimmer…over a Vikings team that started selling pieces off and making other pieces available in trade. It didn’t turn out anything like that.
It started out that way… The Packers took a quick 7-0 lead like it was nothing, but the Vikings answered with the first of four Dalvin Cook TDs. In the Davante Adams v. Dalvin Cook show, Adams then caught his 2nd TD pass to make it 14-7 GB. Then Cook scored his 2nd TD to tie the game at the half. Cook scored again, his 3rd TD, in the 3rd-quarter (21-14 lead MIN). Soon after, Cook scored again…his 4th and final TD. Adams scored his 3rd TD late…too little too late. Vikings with the 28-22 upset.
The Packers fall to (5-2), but their schedule ahead is a virtual cupcake – they don’t have any top NFL powers left on their schedule. As tough as it gets for them is at Indy Week 11 or Week 16 hosting Tennessee.
Minnesota fancies themselves as ‘back in it’ at (2-5). With the expanded playoff format…who knows? They play five winnable games the next five weeks. If they could go (4-1) in that stretch then maybe but more likely the Vikings finish (7-9), (8-8) at best.
From a fantasy perspective, there’s not much to talk about in this game. It really was Dalvin v. Davante, everything else took its natural backseat to them. They scored all the game’s TDs. When Mike Zimmer can run the ball, that’s all he’ll do…and his WRs get burned for FF by it 2-3-4 times a season. This was one of them.
My game notes are more around things not in-game based.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Just to put a bow on the Dalvin Cook show…
The Vikings had 48 offensive plays (rush or pass) and 37 of them went to RBs, and most of that to Cook. So, you can fault Adam Thielen (3-27-0/4) or Justin Jefferson (3-26-0/4) for their lowly FF-performances. It was the game script.
This game, there two WRs ‘bad’ FF game is a minor ‘teaching moment’…
If you don’t own either of these guys, you hold them in very HIGH regard…as you remember all the great games they’ve had this season. You wish you had them today, because they are FOR SURE better than whatever WR you started this week that let you down. When you don’t own a player for FF…you don’t live and die (mostly die) with their every moment…you only remember their great FF moments. You don’t feel any angst towards Adam or JJ today if you don’t own them. They are the perfect ‘everyone else’s kids are doing everything better than mine’ or ‘everyone else’s house is nicer or cleaner than mine’ players/mindsets to beat yourself up over painting a false feelings picture.
On the other hand, if you own one of these guys – you’re furious with this disappointing week. How could they let you down AGAIN, just when you needed them to win this week? You wonder if Mike Zimmer is going to do this the rest of 2020 – just run Cook all day and ignore the passing game. It might be time to sell one of them for ____ WR who had a great week this week so you can ‘sell high’ on your guys and find sweet mental relief somewhere else. Maybe this is the end of the hot run on Jefferson, and you’re hatching a plan (in the prison of your mind) on the perfect moment to sell JJ at the absolute peak of his existence.
WRs, or any RB-WR-TE in FF spare about 3-4 of them, have up and down outputs all season and it doesn’t mean they stink or you’ll know when to time it in and out of the lineup. Everyone else’s WRs are not all better than yours…you are just too close to the situation to judge it fairly. Those emotions are going to kill you playing this game.
-- Irv Smith (1-16-0/1), same thing…if Cook/the RBs are getting all the work then the TEs are screwed too (for FF).
But I did want to mention – Kyle Rudolph (1-12-0/1) was not traded by the deadline, so Irv is stuck being a random event in PPR week-to-week. Not a great outlook with Irv the ROS with Rudolph, but there’s also not much out there at TE for those in need…but Smith is becoming a very low option among the TE PPR desperation options.
-- A.J. Dillon (5-21-0, 1-16-0/1) has COVID, and he’s out for Week 9.
Jamaal Williams (16-75-0, 6-27-0/6) was in close contact with Dillon, so he’s very likely out for TNF by the rules of how many positive tests needed to get cleared…and playing on TNF couldn’t come at a worse time for him.
Aaron Jones (DNP) is hurt, and like misses Week 9 TNF as well.
All three of the main GB RBs out leaves us with (if the game is not moved):
Scatback RB/WR Tyler Irvin (1-7-0/3) or Practice Squad RB Dexter Williams.
Williams is the more ‘legit’ RB to take normal RB carries, but he cannot catch passes well. He’ll probably see 10-15 carries and 1 target, maybe…and be the goal line option that they may not even use (give the ball to) near the goal line.
Ervin is a 185-pound homerun hitter…a guy who would be a split role back with Williams. Ervin would see the passing game and might get a good 5-8 carries with 2-5 targets this week. The more exciting, one play hit FF option is Ervin. The steady getting decent touches but might not do anything with them guy is Williams.
-- Robert Tonyan (5-79-0/7) continues to establish himself as the guy Aaron Rodgers is trusting more and more. It’s a good thing. However, his outlook takes a hit when Allen Lazard returns to action, likely this week.
Lazard will be Rodgers’s #2 option upon return, but that’s usually erratic/disappointing when Davante is available…but he should be a steady WR2-2.5 who will probably score a TD every other game on average, maybe 8-10 TDs per 16-game season type pace. He’s also a great ‘cuff of sorts for Davante Adams’ owners. If Adams goes down…Lazard has WR1 upside – as we’ve already seen.
Green Bay not bringing in Will Fuller or anyone else at the trade deadline is a positive for Lazard’s projections ahead.
Snap Counts of Interest:
46 = Tonyan
28 = Sternberger
64 = Jam Williams
20 = Ervin
10 = AJ Dillon
41 = Irv Smith
39 = K Rudolph
