2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Cardinals 37, Seahawks 34 OT
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
It felt like Seattle was going to run away with this game early. Right down the field unfettered for a quick TD, 7-0 Seattle lead. It wasn’t long before it was 20-7 Seattle. A bunch of scoring late 2nd-quarter, but Seattle left the field at the half with a 27-17 lead and you could feel they were the better team.
Then Arizona flipped the script…
Not immediately, they didn’t. It was 34-24 Seattle with 6+ minutes left, and I thought it was all but over watching live. Arizona was able to tie the ball game and send it to OT where I didn’t remember, until the re-watch, that this game appeared headed for a tie at the end of OT, but when Arizona picked off that errant Russell Wilson pass at the end – it was with less than a minute left and then went down in range for the game-winning field goal. I forgot the time was down that far when Arizona got the key turnover.
Nearly 1,100 yards of combined offense, 5 combined turnovers, 98 combined passes, 200 yards rushing for Seattle (and ‘only’ 159 for Arizona) – and Arizona wins and pulls into the NFC West title conversation.
I’m left thinking…is Arizona good…or is Seattle bad…or both good…or both bad? My instincts tell me they are roughly the same team…all offense, based around the QB/passing, and no defense/no pass rush. They will play in shootouts unless they face a team with pass rush pressure…but they can hang in games where they are under pressure because their QBs make plays.
Credit ARI D-C Vance Joseph, he did get a pass rush going here…9 QB hits, 3 picks of Wilson.
Seattle has the worst pass defense in the NFL because they have no pass rush – in five quarters of play they hit Kyler Murray ZERO times. I almost never see games with ZERO QB hits. It just happened here…and thus Kyler with a monster effort.
All the lopsided pressure data…and Arizona barely won…that’s what scares me on getting excited about their offense/team when tougher defenses face them, but it could just be me worrying to worry. Typical FF GM.
Arizona is now (5-2), goes on a bye, and then is about to get tested by their schedule. They start to play more physical teams and playoff hopefuls and head to unfriendly weather in the weeks to come. This was a key/pivotal win…10 wins and a possible NFC West title are in range for Arizona now, but so are 8 wins and missing the playoffs. I think the schedule circumstances have flipped in their favor ahead. They are very likely getting to 9-10 wins (Chris Bilello was right again!). Ugly as it might be sometimes, they are winning and that’s all that matters.
Seattle is a better version of Arizona, they just happened to lose this game…that they could’ve won many times over. The Seahawks have a similar schedule ahead – not as easy, a few more physical teams, weather comes into play with NFC East matchups to play Week 12 on. Seattle is good for 10-11 wins, and I’d give them the nod for the NFC West over Arizona…Weeks 12-15 facing PHI-NYG-NYJ-WSH is a gift from the schedule gods.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The most impressive thing I saw in this game, besides D.K. Metcalf’s tackling ability, was Chase Edmonds (5-58-0, 7-87-0/7).
I don’t mean that in the typical way we all say, like…’Edmonds is better than Drake, he should take over…stupid Kingsbury!’ Edmonds is a ‘C’ grade status in the universe because he’s a clear backup that many smarties say should be starting…but they only say that because Kenyan Drake (14-34-0, 1-7-0/2) has been so disappointing.
This is a key concept to keep in mind for all that I’m about to write – the experts and fans who yammer about wanting Edmonds to start, it’s not with true Edmonds-based passion, it’s a Drake punishment statement. It’s a unique way to say, “Drake sucks.” To punish Drake for being a top 18 FF draft pick and being a dud most weeks. At people’s core, they’re not thinking Chase Edmonds is a big name, super talent. He’s not more of a mindset like when JaMycal Hasty or Justin Jackson or Lamical Perine or Alexander Mattison falls into a spot where if they get touches by injury above them to the starter then they might be OK.
What I’m seeing…Edmonds may be the best ‘no name’ RB you can acquire for the future and is useful for the now. Edmonds is a starting NFL talent, with all the tools/a similar or better LeSean McCoy (if prime LeSean entered the NFL in 2020…which wouldn’t be as differencemaking because so much talent in the NFL now). Edmonds has added 5+ pounds of muscle. He is very shifty/agile. He’s a tough enough interior runner. He’s an excellent receiver.
Let me talk about his receiving ability…
In a way, he’s become a de facto 2nd-best receiver on the team. Smooth catcher of the ball, but then excellent in movement after the catch – and he’s not just catching dump passes and screens, he more catching passes downfield as much as short.
The past four games for Edmonds:
Week 4 = 5 catches, 6 targets, 24 yds rec, 1 TD
Week 5 = 5 catches, 6 targets, 56 yards rec. (a rushing TD)
Week 6 = 1 rec., 2 targets, 6 yards
Week 7 = 7 rec., 7 targets, 87 yards
In that same span, Drake has 2 catches on 5 targets for 9 yards.
D.J. Chark hasn’t been as productive receiving as Edmonds the past 4 weeks. Nor Mike Williams. Just two names that popped into my head. I could point out more, you get the point.
Edmonds works as a backup with Drake for the right now in PPR. Obviously, he is going to be really good with Drake out of the picture Week 9 (if).
The player this week, in Dynasty/keeper, I’d focus on making a big deal to acquire is Chase Edmonds. He works for FF as Drake’s backup but if he goes off in Week 9-10, the Drake v. Edmonds debate will really heat up. I want to try to get in ahead of Edmonds playing and making it so obvious. But it’s really a bet on 2021 (with 2020 benefits too)…
Kenyan Drake is a free agent after the season. Drake has shown no reason for any NFL team to make plans or spend big around him. Arizona already paid him $8M for this season…about $7M too much. A one-year option they got suckered into. Chase Edmonds’ emergence allows them not to get suckered again. As soon as the season is ‘2021’, Edmonds will be the main RB on the roster.
Arizona could draft an RB, could sign an RB…they could even bring back Drake, but why? When they have Edmonds in the system for two years, proven at a much lower cost? I mean, they will add guys around any starting RB, but you see the work Drake gets now…that should be Edmonds’ work load for 2021 + all the passing game that Drake is a zero in right now.
Edmonds is going to start in Week 9 and probably Week 10 (and maybe 11), and that’s a speed bump in trade right now…but Edmonds isn’t playing this week (bye), so if you have an RB of the moment…Scott, Gio, Jamaal that you don’t really need this week – it might be the perfect flip of RBs who seem like ‘just for a week’ guys. But our plans are more devious than ‘spot start’ RB. We’re taking the long view, that might end up a short view after Week 9…but worst case a useful RB2-3 in PPR the ROS.
You shouldn’t have to pay a lot for this. He’s not a name people covet, but they do respect. He’s an RB2.5…that I’m willing to pay RB2 money for…or more, if I need to…if I have the hype names of the moment to throw at it to con the current owner.
In redraft, like I said…Scott, Gio, Jamaal, Hasty are guys to consider a similar ‘1-2 week only’ flip for. Add trinkets if the person you’re dealing with is being obstinate.
In Dynasty, whatever you could get away with to make this investment. The current owner may profess love, but it is only because of the moment…the Week 9-10 start, but Drake looms and they know (they think) it’s a limited engagement. I’d pay the price here but don’t enter the room naked to make your lust obvious…worm your way around to it. The more you show you’re interested in a name specifically, the more puckered up the current owner gets.
-- The Kyler Murray (34-48 for 360 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT, 14-67-1) Report…and it is good.
Kyler is ringing up fantasy points like mad, which I love. I also have to keep in mind…everyone is bombing Seattle. Kyler has been fortunate to face Detroit-Carolina-NYJ-Dallas-Seattle the past five weeks. In terms of sack% (sacks per pass attempt), here’s how those five teams rank in the NFL in sack-ability: #26, #32, #24, #20, #29.
When Kyler has time, he’s deadly…most top QBs are…but especially Kyler. That’s why I went ballistic that the Cardinals drafted Isaiah Simmons top 10, instead of a top O-Lineman…which was the single stupidest pick in the 1st-round (and Simmons can’t even get on the field because he doesn’t know what he’s doing…while all kinds of rookies are playing 100% of the snaps).
Here’s the next seven games of sack% defenses the Cards face by NFL rank: #8 (MIA), #11 (BUF), #29 (SEA, now with Dunlap), #22 (NE), #6 (LAR), #10 (NYG), #3 (PHI). Things are about to get rougher.
I’m not saying Kyler shrivels up and dies…maybe, he goes through it and is the league MVP/best player in all of FF 2020 (God, I hope so). I’m just keeping focus on the fact that there’s been some schedule advantage here.
I’m not looking to trade Kyler in Dynasty, but I’m not against it. More NOT looking to now because the more Arizona wins, the more I know Kliff is staying, and this Kyler gets what he wants. Every Arizona win this year…another brick in a firm foundation for Kyler’s near future. If Arizona loses their next 2-3-4 in a row…we start dredging up old fears.
-- Who is going to start for Seattle at RB this week (Week 8)? Everyone is hurt. Everyone might be out…or everyone might be in.
If Chris Carson is out, a big IF, who would it be?
Carlos Hyde (15-68-1, 2-8-0/4) would split with Travis Homer (3-10-0) but Hyde has a hamstring concern and Homer has a knee concern. They are both questionable.
Rashaad Penny doesn’t seem back anytime soon.
It could leave DeeJay Dallas (2-18-0/3) by attrition. And Dallas has shown promise…like if Hyde-Homer had an offspring it would be Dallas.
Just noting…Dallas could be in a position to shock the world if the injury issues all go against Seattle. Watch the practice reports and whether they sign any backs off the street THU-FRI. I’ll be watching.
-- D.K. Metcalf (2-23-0/5) had a bad FF game…after I proclaimed that he’s the greatest FF thing in the world the week prior. That’s how these things work. You need me to bring down a WR in 2020? For a small fee, I’ll write glowingly about them and they’ll be trapped in a bizarre coal mine collapse incident Sunday before kickoff.
Note…DKM had the game-winning (in OT) catch and run 30+ yard TD, but it got called back for a penalty elsewhere.
I’ll buy all your DKM stock, and Tyler Lockett (15-200-3/20) is going to be a huge beneficiary of DKM attention…just like this game. Seattle IS the elite passing game tally team of 2020…not KC, not Buffalo…Seattle. DKM and Lockett ‘win’.
If I LOVE a WR…this is what will happen to them, so beware when I get on a Parris, Diontae, Deebo, Chark, DKM last week or Claypool last week train: https://youtu.be/B40cQXCfooE
-- Is it me or does Andy Isabella (1-7-0/3) fail 90% of the time when he gets a chance at rare touches? It always seems he’s slipping and falling on every incoming pass. Might someone, anyone, maybe even himself…consider changing cleats at some point?
Isabella’s career is sliding down a drain here.
Memba when they drafted Isabella-Butler-KeeSean in the same draft incoming with Kilff…what a trio they had? Ummm…nope.
-- Christian Kirk (5-37-2/8) has been hot as a pistol for FF…I’m selling that all week long if I can. Selling him as a WR2 in a hot offense. Kirk has been a nobody all year, then got one lucky bomb vs. Dallas and then two short TDs here. 500+ yards of offense and Kirk has just 5 catches for 37 yards (but 2 TDs).
Kirk for Edmonds redraft? Done. I’ll take Edmonds. Need a bit more, I can make that happen to go with Kirk to get your Edmonds.
-- IDPs of note…
SEA DB Ryan Neal (9 tackles, 1 TFL) has come out of nowhere to be IDP great. 7.7 tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 1.0 PDs per game the past three games since he’s become a starter. Jamal Adams returning may change all that but it’s working for now.
SEA rookie LB Jordyn Brooks (7 tackles, 1 TFL) got his first major playing time of 2020 and in half a game was in on 7 tackles. Something to watch if he’s going to start soon – a 1st-round LB who is a talent, a master at TFLs.
Haason Reddick (11 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 3 TFLs) has been reborn with Chandler Jones out. 8.0 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2.5 TFLs the past two weeks playing more snaps as an OLB pass rusher, which he was great at in college. Why they tried to convert him to ILB, I don’t understand…it wasted years of his career.
Snap Counts of Interest:
51 = Edmonds
34 = Drake
42 = Darrell Daniels
21 = Arnold
41 = Hyde
16 = Homer
15 = Carson
12 = Dallas
