2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Preseason Wk2 Game Analysis: Colts 12, Vikings 10
Sam Ehlinger got the surprise start for Indy with the (mostly) 1st-team, and he faced Kirk Cousins and the (mostly) 1st-teamers (offense and defense) for Minnesota for a few series. No offense TDs were scored in this game…no matter which QB was in on either side. It wasn’t pretty.
We do have some FF takeaways to discuss, however!
Dynasty/Fantasy Player Notes…
-- So, Sam Ehlinger (8-13 for 70 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) started here with the (mostly) 1st-team weapons for Indy. It was a little surprising to me…it tells me that if Carson Wentz is going to miss Week 1 – Frank Reich has not decided between Ehlinger and Jacob Eason on who would start. Otherwise, he would be keeping Eason with the 1st-team to get him ready.
The pattern of this offseason has been – where there is a real QB competition, one QB started last week (Week 1) and the other gets the starting nod (with the 1st-team) this week (Week 2).
Examples…
Lock Week 1, Teddy Week 2…Teddy wins.
Taysom Week 1, Winston Week 2…now there’s doubt as to who the starter is (I still think Taysom wins it/has already won…more on that later today)
Examples (my opinion) of fake QB competitions (for starting Week 1) where the same guy started each of the two weeks so far…
SF, WSH, JAX, CHI, NE (I still think Lance and Jones have a chance to start Week 1, but Fields, wrongfully so, is going to sit/wait)
Indy just fell into the example where there is a true indecision by the team, with different QBs starting the first two weeks of preseason games. The pattern seems to be (in the true tight competition battles) the QB who started Week 1 of the preseason was the more experienced (with the team) and the QB who got the 2nd week chance is the newcomer in the race…and has a recency bias advantage due to the more recent game giving them and advantage to look better due to working with 1st-teamers -- and in Denver that QB getting their start Week 2 won the job…and we’re not sure now about Taysom/Winston because of a lucky MNF event for Winston.
By even giving Ehlinger such a nod here in this game/this week – it speaks volumes as to what Reich thinks of Eason (doesn’t fully trust him)…and while not possessing the same arm ability, Reich likes the moxie and mobility of Ehlinger.
Ehlinger responded with two picks in the game, but both were tipped/batted passes that forced fluky-ish picks (one a pick six). Aside from that, Ehlinger still didn’t look that great. The ball is moving so slow out of his hands that Ehlinger’s hesitations or inexperience is causing defenders to be all over his passes. At least Eason comes in and fires fastballs that defenders can’t react to that quickly. If the right route is called, and it’s safe – Eason will throw accurate rockets where they need to go – but don’t ask him to read defenses well or not falter in a muddy pocket. Ehlinger’s fearlessness in the pocket has him in this race.
Will Wentz (and Nelson) be back for Week 1 anyway? Possibly. Indy has to be on the safe side and not rush them back and risk a reaggravation causing a lost season – they can wait 1-2 games and lose those 1-2 games to get Wentz-Nelson back fully ready for the final 15-16 games.
Because he started here, against a 1st-team defense…I believe Ehlinger is in the lead in Reich’s heart/mind…if Wentz isn’t ready.
-- Because Wentz is a mystery for Week 1…and thus missing valuable time with his receivers, and with Ehlinger likely to start – you can’t seriously draft Parris Campbell (0-0-0/2) or Michael Pittman (1-7-0/2) for redraft. You don’t want to get out to a slow start with these guys on your FF bench Week 1…2…and then maybe Wentz returns but is sloppy or gets hurt again and then it’s more backup QBs. For the price, I don’t know why we’d waste the roster spot…they’re not so great you have to grab and sit on when there are similar/talented WRs in their same ADP ranges.
I will also say, my patience with Parris Campbell has just about run to zero. Looks great on paper. Looks average on tape. Is always hurt. If Campbell gets off to a slow start this season…his value is going to die eternally. I’m willing to include Parris in Dynasty deals to try and get things I want…Parris as a sweetener add-on to giveaway sadly.
For the redraft ADP price, you could get Bryan Edwards or Rondale Moore or maybe Russell Gage as options. I’d rather have Curtis Samuel any day over Parris Campbell. That’s where we’re at with Campbell now. Sadly, we have to forget Parris (I couldn’t resist).
I want to discuss another Colts WR, but I will do that as a Subscriber Extra Note that will appear soon after this game report publication.
-- This is going to feel like a political statement, but it’s really not…per se…it’s more a Fantasy/NFL valuation issue or observation that points out the nonsense thinking of people judging football things…
Kirk Cousins (5-7 for 23 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) started and looked sharp. That’s one note.
My second note is – isn’t it sad that Kirk Cousins is the only unvaccinated player in the NFL (him and Cole Beasley)? I mean, he must be because all I see every other day are blurbs and articles on why Minnesota needs to cut ties with the selfish, unvaccinated, stupid Kirk Cousins.
The same writers and analysts are proposing trades for Deshaun Watson to come to their team ASAP…because you can exploit women, that’s fine. Just don’t be unvaccinated while you do it.
Funny how Cam Newton or Lamar Jackson (among others) don’t get the same unvaxx treatment/snub from the media. Nor Dalvin Cook, who I assume is unvaccinated because he was wearing a mask on the sidelines every time that I saw him…and you only have to do that if you’re unvaxxed according to the NFL rules. I didn’t see any articles yet on how the Vikings should cut ties with him (just speculating on Cook, I have no idea…nor do I care about his vaxx status). Why are only 1-2 players the target of all the media vaxx discussion? It doesn’t make sense.
I’m cracking an observational joke, and I’m really not drawing into a vaxx conversation – more so looking at a discussion of how the media is doing their annual turn on Cousins, using vaccination as their tool now…complete with articles on how Mike Zimmer never wanted Cousins anyway.
Funny how the team gave Cousins a monster deal in 2018, and then extended him with a monster deal again in 2020. Man, they hate that guy. I wish people would show their hate for me by giving me $66M over 2-years to work for them. The audacity of the Vikings hating a guy that much…only $66M over 2-years after a $84M/3-year deal in 2018? The disgust they have for Cousins…
But local Vikings beat reporter has it all figured out on how the Vikings secretly hate Cousins, and how they should cut him. Of course, the idiot reporter is not considering that it would cost the Vikings $76M in dead money to eat his contract…but butthurt Skol fan/volunteer article writer for a Vikings fan site has it all figured out – get rid of Cousins by any means necessary.
Making all the anti-Cousins people in Minnesota even more stupid, is their Plan B for when the magically get rid of Cousins. A few years ago, they were all-in on Sean Mannion…bench Cousins in-season and go to the much better (their opinion) Mannion. That aged well…as the Vikings went to the playoffs and upset NO that season behind Cousins.
Now, these idiots want Kellen Mond (6-12 for 61 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) to be pushed over Cousins. To you moronic Vikings reporters and idiotic sheep Skol fans drinking the Mond Kool-Aid, here’s my message to you: https://youtu.be/HSyxnqOPr3c
I’m afraid I’ve got some bad news – Kellen Mond sucks. He won’t be in the league in 3-4 years. I’ve scouted Mond, ran the analytics…and I have two eyes and a mostly functioning brain that watched this game, and last week’s game. I’ve seen enough to know.
Mond was drafted ahead of Sam Ehlinger, FYI.
I’m afraid I’ve got some bad news #2 for Vikings fans: Until Aaron Rodgers leaves, you ain’t ever winning the NFC North, no matter who your QB is.
-- The first-team offense for Minnesota featured mostly 2-WRs and 2-TEs every play with Cousins. The two TEs were Irv Smith (1-3-0/2) and Brandon Dillon (1-6-0/3). Why Dillon? Tyler Conklin was out with a mild injury.
The Vikings are going to run 2 WR/2 TE a lot, and Tyler Conklin might be the TE to own…or, at minimum, he splits into Smith to make it a maddening, mostly useless guessing game every week on which one has a worthy FF week.
-- Two quick notes on IDPs here…
I watched several isolated plays on Vikes rookie ILB Chazz Surratt (10 tackles, 1 TFL). Big numbers, but I didn’t get ‘wowed’ with what I saw.
I also focused on Vikes CB Harrison Hand (2 tackles, 1 PD) because the computer was a fan of his prospect analytics coming out of Temple – he looked solid enough. He’s just DB depth right now.
