2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Titans 42, Bills 16

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

Battle of the undefeateds…and it goes to the Titans, convincingly. The Bills never seemed to be in this game. Either the Bills aren’t as good as advertised, and/or the Titans are better than I thought, and/or sometimes things don’t make total sense.

My two defenses for Buffalo would be…

1) Missing Tre’Davious White and John Brown is quite a hit…and then also ILB Matt Milano and CB Levi Wallace out on top of that was some heart & soul taken away before kick.

2) When the Chiefs fell this week, and didn’t look sharp, the football world shrugged its shoulders at the oddity. While the Bills fall and everyone ‘knows they’re a fraud’.

Which then we need to add a third thought…

3) The Titans are a really good team, like Buffalo, but don’t carry the same prominence Iike Buffalo prior). We can’t generally believe a Ryan Tannehill-led team that runs the ball a lot can be a top NFL team.

Since Ryan Tannehill took over in Week 7 last season, the Titans are (11-3) in the regular-season and (13-4) adding in the playoffs. In the same span that Buffalo’s been good too, they are (10-5) in the regular season since Week 7 last season (ignoring their Week 17 last season that didn’t matter/Allen sat). (10-6) record with their playoff loss. Since Week 7 last year, Tennessee has a slightly better regular season record than Buffalo and then they won two playoffs games, while Buffalo lost their playoff game.

In a battle of the top unrecognized better/top 5 level type teams in the NFL…the Titans just won a head-to-head matchup, kinda ‘crowning’ themselves the kings of the unloved good-to-great NFL teams.

Tennessee is now (4-0) and has a pretty favorable schedule ahead. 10+ wins easy and the AFC South crown coming their way. Before we get too far out there on them – they won their first three games against very bad teams by 2, 3, and 1 point…before blowing out the Bills. If they lost to Houston next week, I would not be shocked.

Buffalo gets embarrassed on national TV, so you don’t want to be the NFL team that plays them next week! Oops, Week 6 they get the also-just-embarrassed KC Chiefs on Monday Late Afternoon Football this week. We are projecting 9-10 wins for the Bills, more on the ten side…but they are taking on too many hits with injuries the past 2-3 weeks.  

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Now is the time to buy Josh Allen (26-41 for 263 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs) for fantasy! Finally, a nice/lower entry point was created.

…Wait, you’re not excited? Look at that look on your face!

You gotta be kidding me? After everything I’ve written for weeks?

How can you not like going and getting Josh Allen now? Just admit it – you don’t like Josh Allen, do you? You never did. You just pretended to go along with all this Allen-attention. https://youtu.be/IgHThXuheOM

After all this time…after all my words…after me admitting I was wrong…one so-so game and your true colors come out. How can you not like Josh Allen? https://youtu.be/4wMQz3iJDzE

Seriously, you’re not interested now…

Why?

Because you don’t really believe in Allen. Never did. It makes sense. We’ve all lived in a world for 2+ years where Josh Allen was supposed to be terrible, we couldn’t accept that Allen had turned a page/changed anytime he put up decent FF numbers. It was probably more likely he was just on a hot streak/lucky, and you feared that if you bought into it…it was only going to burn you. Now, you saw him look erratic on national TV and his team getting killed…and two picks…and not-300 yards passing – it’s all confirming your fears. Who wants in on that?

Note…that’s exactly what the current Allen holder is thinking. I don’t care what they say out loud or text you…I know their inner monologue. Which means now is the perfect time to strike. They feel like they have a sinking ship about to fully sink…but they can’t let you know that.

NFL teams are lucky to convert 50% of their 3rd-downs in a game or on the season. And usually, in one game, they convert about 4-8 of them. Josh Allen was 13-of-17 on 3rd-downs in this game…which is mind blowing. He didn’t have his best night. Threw some balls offline where WRs had their hands on it but couldn’t haul it in. Had two picks but note that one of them was a clank off a 5th-string WR’s hands and into a Titans defender’s hands. When the Bills got down 28-10, Allen went on a methodical 6+ minute, 14-play, 90-yard drive (converting three 3rd-downs) to close it to 28-16…and then it fell apart on Bills defense and a kick return fumble from there.

A ‘bad’ game from Josh Allen resulted in 264 yards passing, 2 TDs (with 2 picks, 1 fluke one), 18 yards rushing…if that’s the worst it gets that’s OK.

If I owned Deshaun Watson, I’d so offer him straight up for Josh Allen right now.

On my Kyler for Josh Allen + _____ consideration of the past few weeks. That ____ just got a lot bigger. A lot bigger. The marketplace commands it…or you walk away from the negotiating table. If you even want to go there. You don’t have to. Feel free to keep Kyler…I’m just saying – the Allen market just cratered because it was weak-hands holding all along (and when Justin Herbert has a game like this, his stock price will tumble…because people don’t really believe…I also want to note that the Chase Claypool price isn’t as terrible as I thought to still acquire in places, because he wasn’t supposed to be this good – they are trying to trade you a little better version of Travis Fulgham in their minds).

If you don’t believe in Allen, you don’t believe. It’s not a crime.

I think Allen looked very good in a tough game, and considering his defense is all banged up and they can’t run the ball…Allen has to carry the team ahead. Opposing defenses don’t believe in Josh Allen, so they are still daring him to beat them – you want in on that for fantasy.

 -- As Allen goes, so goes his top targets...two of them:

1) Stefon Diggs (10-106-0/16) is a threat to be the #1 WR in PPR this year. And because people fear an Allen collapse, they are willing to deal Diggs in the right deal. You’d be surprised, but shouldn’t, that he’s available.

A lot of fantasy experts are writing articles, insider advice to sell off Josh Allen and related pieces ahead of the collapse.

I’m buying Diggs, not desperately…I’m buying smart, trying to expose their true feelings. I don’t care what they text or email me. I assume they are secretly scared like all of football society, and I’m going to run a sword through it…or I walk.

I’d like to trade a hype WR + ___ medium trinket for Diggs.

Like (in redraft) if you have Justin Jefferson and Darrell Henderson and the Diggs owner is desperate for a warm body RB in a redraft this week type of deal. Jefferson-Edmonds (If you don;t need RB depth)? Fuller-Edmonds (fearing Fuller injury)? Lamb-Henderson? Just some food for thought concepts. You might even get a touch more (Diggs + __) if the RB desperation is high for them and not you.

2) John Brown would have made a difference here if active. The Gabriel Davis (5-58-0/9) night would have been more 7-70-0 or 7-70-1 with Brown. A few times Davis ran a different route than Allen expected, and they miscommunicated…that happens with a rookie, not as likely with the more talented Brown.

If you think people don’t believe in Allen…they certainly don’t care about John Brown. He’s like a WR3 acquisition. He’s a layup. He might even be dropped in 10-team leagues. I’m in. All that has hurt him is being out of action/out of the view, and his boring name in general (who is named John Brown anyway…what kind of dull parents did he have?), and with people scared Allen dies and everything falls with him.

 -- The fact that the Bills cannot run the ball helps the passing game get pushed more. Devin Singletary (11-25-0, 1-8-0/1) barely could take a step before pressure was on him up the interior. The Bills have an O-Line issue and it’s all but killed any interior run game.

Singletary has one of the lowest ‘yards before contact’ numbers of any RB in the NFL right now.

1.2 avg. yards before contact for the season for Singletary is worse than Zeke Elliott (1.8) or Miles Sanders (1.8) or Le’Veon Bell (1.6) among others working behind corrupted O-Lines that come to mind.

One RB is worse…Zack Moss (0.9).

These are dreadful/foreboding numbers for a running back, and it’s hitting both Buffalo RBs...so it's 'not just one of them'. A terrible schedule of run defenses is heading their way too. I don’t think you can count on Singletary to really help you much ahead. He’s a warm body RB2-3 that Allen was throwing a lot too, but not this game. Moss returning doesn’t help either.

Maybe the O-Line gets tweaked and things get back to normal, but right now, ‘on paper’ this is looking terrible.

 -- Ryan Tannehill (21-28 for 195 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 4-42-1) just quietly goes about another 4 TD week. One of the great fantasy QBs of the past 16 NFL weeks and he’s still on and off waivers/people don’t believe.

He doesn’t rack the yards, but he gets the TDs. I wanted us to all consider him as a backup/emergency QB to hold a few weeks ago (if needed) – hope you held (or dumped for Herbert). He’s a higher-end QB1 his past 14-15 games and no one believes it or thinks it will continue…and, yet, it does.

We can’t get our minds wrapped around Tannehill or Josh Allen, but we feel good about Deshaun Watson, Drew Brees, Jared Goff, even the Matt’s (Ryan and Stafford) bouncing back way more than we have confidence in Tannehill.

It’s illogical based on the last 15 starts for all of them, but…we get classically conditioned to names and ‘the past’ and it’s tough to let go. Just look at some of the shirts in your closet you’re holding onto.

 -- Tannehill throws to A.J. Brown (7-82-1/9) as his primary but because Tannehill is low yards and lower volume, it’s not always going to be like this game for AJB – plus, if Tre’Davious White played, AJB would have had a 3-35-0 game. Buffalo missing two starting corners was a killer…good for AJB.

Jonnu Smith (5-40-2/7) benefitted from a missing linebacker and the missing corners, but Jonnu is putting up regular 4-5 catch, 40-60 yards games with a TD now, which makes him a god in today’s TE market. If he’s your #2 TE, everyone is coming for him – don’t give it up easy. Make them pay or hold.

‘Any TE is fine’ or ‘there’s plenty of TEs’ is the refrain in the preseason/redraft…and then half+ the league has no viable TE by Week 5 and is in a desperate search for relief and thinks anyone with two good TEs should charitably give one away. Don’t fall for it easily – make them pay or walk away.

 -- Who is Nick Westbrook (1-7-0/1)? Hell, if I know… I mean, I know him but I don’t know why he is starting an NFL game in his rookie season of Week 6. There are so many other/better UDFA WRs out there for a team to consider.

Westbrook is capable/solid. Good size (6’2”/215). Solid hands. Was forgettable at Indiana, not-the-teams #1 WR, and battled an ACL tear in college.

Nothing to see here for FF ahead.

 -- I recommended the Titans-DST as one to watch to stream ahead because they’re good and have some good schedule moments ahead, but I didn’t not think vs. BUF would be one of them.

Usable next week v. HOU for some.

Weeks 9-12 is where it could get interesting: CHI-IND-BAL-IND…aside from BAL week…if Philip Rivers is still being trotted out there.  

Snap Counts of Interest:

47 = AJ Brown

45 = Nick Westbrook

36 = Kalif Raymond

35 = Kroft

25 = Knox