2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Bucs 38, Chargers 31

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

I kinda forgot that LAC stormed out to a 24-7 lead in this game. Justin Herbert was putting on a clinic. Then, for some reason, deep in their own territory, right before the half, seconds to go…instead of taking a knee and getting out of there with the big halftime lead…they ran a shotgun, run option play…of course, a fumble occurred and TB was set up for a quick score before the half to close it to 24-14 LAC.

By the time the 3rd-quarter was ending…TB led 28-24.

But then Herbert planted a 72-yard TD right back to take the 31-28 lead going into the 4th-quarter.

The Bucs scored the final 10 points of the game, and Herbert threw a bad pick to end the game. Tampa Bay earned their way back in…but it was more LAC is so poorly coached that no lead is safe.

The Chargers should be (4-0)…instead, they are (1-3). Their season isn’t over yet. It may be if they fall to (1-4) at NO on MNF this week. Even if they fall to (1-4)…they can win their next three easier games to get to (4-4) and try and climb to (8-8/9-7) for a wild card. This could’ve been a 10+ win team, a threat to the Chiefs…if they had a different/better coach (unfortunately, they have the worst coach in the NFL) and started Herbert from snap #1…and didn’t lose Chris Harris to injury right now.

The Bucs are (3-1) but aren’t playing beautiful ball…they are scrapping their way to wins. It will serve them well as the season progresses…TB learning how to win ugly. If they win TNF this week, we still project them to win the NFC South with 10+ wins.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Justin Herbert (20-25 for 290 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT, 5-14-0) played one of the best games of quarterbacking I’ve ever seen in this game. Bruce Arians said after, that Herbert reminded him of Patrick Mahomes at times. I have to agree.

Honestly, redrafting the 2020 NFL Draft, with these 4 games of 2020 to judge by…I don’t know that it’s not Herbert who should be the #1 overall pick…and is going to go on to be the better FF QB than Joe Burrow, who is extremely gifted as well. Deciding today…I think Herbert will be better than Burrow for FF, big picture.

Miami better hope Tua doesn’t flop or this 2020 NFL Draft will go down in infamy.

Short-term, Tyrod/Anthony Lynn looms. He can’t possibly go to Tyrod…but he probably will. See: Darrell Henderson Week 4/LAR. If Lynn announces Tyrod as starter at any point…the GM should fire him one minute later.

Herbert threw TD passes to Tyron Johnson, Jalen Guyton, and Donald Parham in this game…and each throw was its own kind of amazing.

Justin Herbert is the more polished, less experienced, worst coached, mentally smarter version of what Josh Allen is doing right now.

Dynasty owners, like I said last week…try to make Herbert a part of your future at QB. Pay the price, as reasonably as possible.

 -- Hebert’s receivers notes…

I had to go look up who Tyron Johnson (1-53-1/1) was…and I supposedly know everybody. Didn’t have a clue. Didn’t ring a bell.

6’1”/193, Oklahoma State (LSU transfer), 2019 UDFA, practice squad for LAC since 2019. Solid college performer, 4.36 40-time, 7.07 three-cone. Very good straight-line speed on tape, not overly athletic otherwise, good hands/instincts.

He’s one to watch as the LAC offense becomes an aerial attack…if Mike Williams is out for long. Jalen Guyton (1-72-1/1) is the WR starting with Williams out. Tyron is just a bit player right now but working his way up.

Donald Parham (1-19-1/1) is a legit 6’8”+ TE who I thought was a draftable TE out of Stetson in 2019. He went undrafted, then went and shined in the XFL, now he just caught his first NFL pass…an alley-oop in the end zone, because Justin Herbert is smart.

No chance for Parham to get FF-hot unless Hunter Henry (2-39-0/3) goes down…and even then, I’m not sure. Parham is just an end zone weapon for now.

Speaking of Hunter Henry…weak Week 4 stats (because every other drive was a long TD pass it seemed, plus a LAC pick-six), he has no TDs this year, good targeting otherwise…he’s just kinda flying below the radar. EXCELLENT buy low right now – you get a TE1 talent/history with one of the best QBs in the game. The risk, of course, is they go back to Tyrod…

For all the same reasons above, buy Keenan Allen (8-62-0-/12). I know…he’s not cheap and I’ve dissed him in the past…but now he’s with the god Herbert, everything has changed. He’s going to be a WR1…trading like a WR1.5-2.0 more than 1.0-1.5. If you can catch someone with their defenses down…

I am all the way-the-hell in on everything good related to the LAC passing game and knowing there might be a game where they try to force Tyrod in…but it wouldn’t last long. Not even a half potentially.

 -- Josh Kelley (9-7-0, 3-26-0/3) is the big RB name of the week off the Austin Ekeler injury, and I love him too…but you realize he’s run the ball 40 times for 116 yards the past three games? 2.9 yards per carry.

He’s a rookie and he’s behind a terrible/broken down/injured O-Line (which is why what Herbert is doing is stellar). Kelley may not be the salvation you think he is.

…and Justin Jackson (6-9-0, 2-12-0/2) is going to get a chance to split and or lead this backfield if Kelley stumbles. JJax would then face the same O-Line issues but it’s another reason not to get too far out there on Kelley. I’d sell him hot if the potential exists.

 -- Leonard Fournette out and Ronald Jones (20-111-0, 6-17-0/9) becomes an RB1…just like I planned, if one or the other went down.

Jones had a sweet FF game, but missed a TD catch because Brady had a ball tipped on a throw at the goal line. Jones also dropped two passes he should’ve caught. This was almost an epic FF effort.

The dropped passes and LeSean McCoy injury opened the door for Ke’Shawn Vaughn (3-4-0, 2-22-1/3) to play in passing downs and get his first NFL action. KV looked a little intimidated and slow, but that’s to be expected. Just noting…it wasn’t a ‘wow’ performance/threat to RoJo. I’m not a big Vaughn guy regardless.

I believe TB is going to move forward with a plan of RoJo in his normal lead role and Fournette as akinda 3rd-down back, like a gamma-radiated James White, plus 7-10 interior carries…and it could happen soon/Week 6.

 -- Like I said last week…Brady’s best connection is Scotty Miller (5-83-1/7). It’s his go-to/fave. Mike Evans (7-122-1/8) is always great, but there’s something to Brady-to-Miller. It hurts Chris Godwin upon his return, for FF, a little bit.

 -- O.J. Howard is done for the year, so Cameron Brate (1-3-1/1) has to step up. Please realize…Bruce Arians’ offense hates TEs, but the exception of Brady can do what he wants with Gronk (1-29-0/3).

Brate for FF will be a houseplant getting little sunlight or water.

 -- The LAC-DST doesn’t look good this week at NO on MNF, but it’s what is ahead you want: NYJ-MIA-JAX-LV-BYE-DEN. And, when Chris Harris returns it gets even better.

 -- The TB-DST is still strong, just LAC (this game) is now a ‘bad matchup’ because of Herbert. TB has a choppy schedule ahead, Week 5 at CHI is nice. Week 6 v GB is not. Nor is Week 7 at LV great…but then at NYG Week 8 is nice. But then Week 9 v. NO is not. Nor at CAR-LAR-KC-BYE Weeks 10-13.

The TB-DST is going to run out of steam soon (due to schedule), be prepared to add the right streamer…or pray. TEN-DST is a sneaky pairing together to help where TB is weak, but you might just grab as you go, sitting on TB on the bench in bad matchups.

Snap Counts of Interest:

56 = Watson

54 = Evans

40 = Miller

25 = Ty Johnson

49 = RoJo

19 = Ke’Shawn

50 = Keenan A

45 = Guyton

25 = Jason Moore

08 = Tyron Johnson

02 = KJ Hill

30 = J Kelley

21 = JJax