2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Seahawks 38, Cowboys 31
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
It's crazy how on fire the Seattle offense/Russell Wilson is right now. Seattle was the aggressor, the team in the lead for most of this game but in this Arena League/Video Game league of legalized holding and rare P.I. calls (compared to the past) in 2020, Dallas was able to step on the gas and take the lead with 4:03 left in the game. But, Russell went right down and scored 2 minutes later and Seattle won a game they felt like they had all along…but Seattle’s defense is so bad right now, you never know what's going to happen or if any lead is ever really safe.
Seattle is now (3-0) and they are getting a ton of accolades, but are lucky not to be (1-2) with a near loss here and a Cam telegraphed run falling short Week 2 away from trouble…and then their only real win would be over sad Atlanta. Seattle looks like the best offense in the league right now…not the best team. They’ve yet to play an NFC West foe. They have two winnable games the next two weeks, then a bye, and then a tough five game stretch that will show us how good they really are.
Seattle might win the NFC West…they might be a wild card. The schedule gets hard then VERY easy after their Week 6 bye…a great finish with @PHI, NYG, NYJ, @WAS Weeks 12-16. We project them (11-5) right now.
Dallas is (1-2) but could easily be (0-3)…or (3-0). It feels like Dallas has never been ready for any of their games this year, and then they wake up late and hit the gas pedal, always chasing, never catching up…a bizarre onside kick not going their way away from being (0-3) with a loss to Atlanta included.
Dallas is not great but is likely to win the NFC East regardless because everyone else is worse. There could be some trouble in Dallas if they lose to CLE at home this week. We project Dallas (9-7) and division winners, at this early stage, but Washington could try to give them a push when they dump Dwayne Haskins after Week 4.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The big issue coming out this game…Chris Carson (14-64-0, 3-12-0/3) is expected to be out for 1-2 games with an injury. So, what happens to the backfield now?
Carlos Hyde (4-12-0, 1-11-0/1) should be the lead in a 65/35 split with Travis Homer (2-19-0, 0-0-0/1) but one of the others could get hot and be FF OK. Seattle is winning via air raid, so there’s not much for the backfield guys to do but get a chance at a short TD plunge…and that favors Hyde, you’d think.
I’m not wild about either choice, but they’re something for this week for the desperate.
Carson will be back Week 6, perhaps…two weeks away until Rashaad Penny might return and REALLY gum things up.
-- Who is Cedrick Wilson (5-107-2/7)…where did he come from…should I bid/pick him up?
I liked what I saw from him, as a scout, at Boise State coming out of the draft in 2018, but he was quickly buried, waived, re-picked up by Dallas 2018-2019 – he kept grinding his way to the roster.
Now, he finally got a chance after Weeks 1-2 of no targets and 3-4 snaps each game…and he made the most of it.
Wilson is a solid prospect and showed he was ready for the pros in this game. He really made some great catches and nice runs after the catch. He looked like a potential star…but note he was left to little coverage when he entered the game and made some hay of an ill prepared defense (that would have then overfocused on Amari and Gallup when he entered).
Note that is mentioned Amari-Gallup…not CeeDee Lamb (5-65-0/6). Why? Because most of Wilson’s big plays happened in 3-WR sets with Lamb out, and Wilson in the slot. Why? I’m not sure. I don’t know if Lamb was winded or what, but Wilson made the most of his moment.
The dirty secret here is – Cedrick Wilson looked better than CeeDee Lamb and Dak kinda rode it.
If there is ever a player who is going to get buried from here – it’s Cedrick Wilson. There is NO way Wilson can be allowed to do THIS again. The ‘this’ being making uncriticizable CeeDee Lamb look bad/look ‘lesser’. No one will allow for themselves to think for a second that Wilson might be better than Lamb, so Wilson will pass on with a fading memory.
If Wilson continues to look good, it calls into question why the Cowboys passed up on offensive lineman in the 1st-round for an overrated WR (Lamb) they didn’t need. Jerry Jones is worse than a TV NFL Draft analyst…he was suckered in by his 5 minutes of scouting watching Lamb highlights and just knew he was the guy they couldn’t pass on.
Wilson will be buried now…can’t make Jerrah look bad.
Ask Tyrell Williams and Keelan Cole (from 2-3 years ago) if WRs get buried or not because of draft stock and who’s above them on the roster in ‘name’. Cedrick has to battle his own team for more touches/playing time…and he won’t get it unless an injury happens – that’s my bet on the table.
-- The strong rise of Dak Prescott (37-57 for 472 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs) and Russell Wilson (27-40 for 313 yards, 5 TDs/0 INT), along with Josh Allen…makes the impact of possessing Mahomes-Lamar less economically valuable, but you still need one of these guys to compete week-to-week in the current shootout fantasy version we’re all playing now. You gotta have one of the big boy QBs or you will get rolled by them. How many (3-0) FF teams in your redraft league are Russell Wilson-led? How many drafted CMC or Saquon?
Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, Jared Goff, Big Ben, Aaron Rodgers…they are nice, but they don’t cut it any more like Dak-Russell-Josh-Mahomes-Lamar and Kyler do.
It’s Dak-Russell-Josh-Mahomes-Lamar-Kyler trying to rule the FF scoring world…with Kamara-A. Jones. No WR or TE is putting on a similar show. Maybe when Adams or Thomas come back, they will. De’Andre Hopkins might get/stay there too. Ridley will fade from the top ranks soon.
In the sea of all of these high flying QB scorers, if you drafted Deshaun Watson as your ‘any old good QB will do’…well, then your FF season is: https://youtu.be/M5QGkOGZubQ . I have 1-2 best ball teams along the way that did it…and they’re all but dead now.
-- Trevon Diggs (9 tackles, 1 PD) is a good-looking rookie corner. Still getting adjusted to NFL coverage but starter-level talent…better than Jeff Okudah probably.
In his last two games, Diggs has 7.5 solo tackles per game with 1.0 PDs…pretty salty numbers for a CB in IDP. But rookies tend to be ‘all out’ for their first few games to prove themselves, then settle back in as ‘human’ later.
-- Seattle rookie CB Ugo Amandi (7 tackles, 2 PDs) is trying to man the slot cover role, and he’s struggling…but he is getting good tackle counts for IDP.
In his two games played this season (Weeks 2-3), Amandi is averaging 7.0 solo, 0.25 assisted tackles with 1.0 PD per game.
Snap Counts of Interest:
74 = Lockett
73 = Metcalf
34 = Swain
31 = D Moore
48 = Olsen
30 = Dissly
44 = C Carson
16 = Homer
16 = Hyde
70 = Gallup
65 = Cooper
49 = Lamb
24 = C Wilson
