2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Bears 30, Falcons 26
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I’ll forgo any lamenting on how the Falcons lost another game after getting out to a huge lead.
I will say:
(a) they keep getting put to big leads, and that’s something to note…they aren’t killed right away and never in games.
(b) they had the worst-looking/most hurtful inactives of any team this week going in – not just Julio, but many key defensive players out as well. They were undermanned and almost/should’ve won.
(c) the Bears had every fumble bounce and botched Falcons INT right in their hands (but dropped) moment go their way 2nd-half to help keep fueling the big comeback. It was a lucky comeback by CHI.
The Falcons are (0-3) and have to be the most psychologically damaged team in the NFL…as the travel to Green Bay – and with the Falcons maybe more wounded on the injury reports than they were last week. Tough times.
The Bears have to be the luckiest (3-0) team in NFL history. They should absolutely be (0-3). The fun times likely end this week with Indy coming into town and then a tough schedule stretch through Week 9 and most of the rest of the season. We still project the Bears to have a losing season, but 8-9/9-7 is possible. With Foles…anything is possible.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I guess I live in an alternative universe. As Mitch Trubisky (13-22 for 128 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) was winning his first two games, and getting some national praise…I, a known Trubisky defender, thought Trubisky looked as bad as I had ever seen him.
Here, in this game, his career ends…and I thought he was playing his best game of the season. Finally starting to show some confidence. His body language looked great/confident and he was really zipping throws. Jimmy Graham forgets which side of the field he’s on during a pass pattern and Trubisky throws to the pattern and Graham is off picking dandelions and it sails right to a defender for the pick that ended his career.
On that pick, Trubisky turned into a free safety and chased down the looming pick six and probably saved the game with a tackle…which then led ATL to settle for a field goal on the gift turnover instead of a quick defensive or converted offensive score. Had Trubisky not chased down that tackle – the Bears lose, too big a lead to overcome. See! Trubisky is really good for fantasy…as an IDP.
Bring on the Nick Foles (16-29 for 188 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) era. Foles was better the Trubisky, but was taking a lot of throwing risks…but the game situation warranted that. Everything is better with Foles, but it can only go so high. Foles is a very good QB in the wrong era for his style of play, but he’s still good. He’s also in a situation with a team/fan base that wants him (because they hated the incumbent) – Foles has never been wanted (except by Philly fans, now in retrospect) and with an offensive coordinator he’s close with. Hopefully, Foles gets his due here.
I wouldn’t be shocked if the Bears lost all their games under Foles…or if he led them to the Super Bowl. He’s magic…and he’ll never get the appropriate credit for his career, a career the NFL wasted. The NFL people do like Sam Darnold a lot, though. Not anymore, but they used all be in 100% lockstep agreement.
Mitch Trubisky will likely never play another down in this league, on purpose. He should just go quietly retire after he collects up all his current contract. No one will take a chance on him because of the media/fan backlash, and the NFL doesn’t have the time or talent to develop QBs (except Sean McDermott, Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan).
-- What’s better with Foles?
Allen Robinson (10-123-1/13) is now an every week WR1, period.
Jimmy Graham (6-60-2/9) may be viable for use…he looked the best I’ve seen him in years but note that I mean he went from an ‘F’ to a ‘D’…he didn’t have far to ‘up’. If Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson couldn’t make any great FF use out of him…be careful thinking this is 8-10 years ago on JG because he had a moment here. But he’s more viable now for sure. Graham hasn’t been held back by any QB issue…Graham isn’t any good anymore, hasn’t been for years. But he’s something in a sea of nothing at TE, right now.
It’s still an Anthony Miller (2-41-1/5) and Darnell Mooney (2-19-0/5) split role…and this game was neither’s finest hour. Mooney had a few chances to make his mark here and he couldn’t haul in the tough passes when needed. Miller is a WR4, a low talent WR that will have a hard time putting Mooney behind him. Not sure he ever will.
-- Does Foles make the RBs better?
I mean, Foles is a miracle worker but he’s not that good…no one could make anything good out of this backfield.
David Montgomery (14-45-0, 2-9-0/3) is THE WORST. I want credit for seeing this before EVERYBODY in football analysis. PFF had their stats that proved his greatness coming out of college…and every analyst ran with it. Fantasy analysts drove him to be the top rookie RB taken in 2019 redrafts in late August 2019. Everyone KNEW he was going to be a star…and I didn’t know what I was talking about per many emailers in 2019.
Well, I’m not saying I have a perfect scouting record, but I was right here…all alone…not one person even thinking along my same lines…against the full power of the mega-billion dollar industry of the NFL, it’s scouts, it’s highly paid analysts – and I called all the problems exactly ahead of time before he even hit an NFL field. https://youtu.be/lemytnFMXLE
The clock is ticking on Montgomery…this could be where Le’Veon Bell winds up. Just a guess. My real guess is -- Matt Nagy is a fool and is going to prove to you how much smarter he is in RB scouting…and he’ll go off a cliff with DM. He needs to slide out of his DM’s.
Tarik Cohen is gone, but the delicate genius Nagy wasn’t using Cohen anyway…so you won't even notice he’s gone. Cohen was getting in the way of more touches for Montgomery, as far as Nagy was concerned. ‘More Montgomery’ he likely thought as Cohen limped away for the year.
Cordarrelle Patterson (4-13-0) is their best back but doesn’t get enough touches to get going…and he’s past his prime. ‘Better than Montgomery’ is not a glowing compliment.
Ryan Nall (0-0-0) saw an uptick in snaps (to 7!!) with Cohen out. All Nall needs is a chance – but Nagy will never give him a real chance, and even if he is forced to via injuries to others…and then Nall pops…Nagy would put it back in the lock box the moment Montgomery was ready to go. Matt Nagy and Anthony Lynn vie for worst head coach personnel decision in the NFL on a weekly basis. But now Nagy has a (3-0) record that says he’s a genius. I look forward to the pending Bears downfall from here – which should bring the entire staff down with it, an epic collapse from (3-0).
Only Foles can save them.
-- The Falcons have a devastated WR group going into Week 4…they may be without Julio Jones and Russell Gage. In their place was:
Olamide Zaccheaus (4-41-0/6), who really had some nice moments here. He’s like ‘Honey, I shrunk the A.J. Brown’…a bulldog, thick WR, very short WR who just missed 1-2 big plays on misfires by Matt Ryan. One of them a 50+ yard bomb TD he was open by 2-3 yards on.
Brandon Powell (3-27-0/4) is a discount Russell Gage.
Of the two, Zaccheaus would be of momentary interest of both Julio and Gage are out Week 4.
-- OK, so…
Julio Jones is ruled out before the game.
Russell Gage is hurt in-game and leaves.
Another good/offensive explosion game for ATL.
…and Hayden Hurst gets 1 whole catch for 1 whole yard (but it was a TD).
I think this tells us how integrated Hurst is with Ryan…not much. It will come, but you may not have time to wait around.
-- ATL LB Mykal Walker (7 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 PDs) played well in Foye Oluokun’s place this week.
Walker is a 4th-round draft pick in 2020 out of Fresno State. 96 total tackles in his senior year/2019. 86 tackles in 2018 but also logged 13.5 TFLs and 6 PDs as well. Solid career.
A solid NFL prospect who showed he belongs in the NFL. He goes back to part-time player when Oluokun returns but could take over an LB spot before long as this defense struggles.
Snap Counts of Interest:
63 = Ridley
54 = Zaccheaus
37 = Powell
12 = Gage
06 = Blake
35 = Gurley
23 = Br Hill
06 = Ito
64 = ARob
51 = Mooney
47 = Miller
23 = Wims
46 = Montgomery
11 = CPatt
07 = Nall
