2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Colts 28, Vikings 11
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Computer felt great about MIN in this game for some reason, so I joined in against my better judgment…and not good…not good at all.
The Vikings drove right down the field opening drive and settled for a field goal. The 1st-quarter ended 3-0 MIN. Looked like a slog was in store…neither team looking particularly sharp. Then the Colts decided to run every play and jam it down the Vikings’ throats with Jonathan Taylor, and they did. Minnesota slept the rest of the game and got smacked around for the second game in a row this year.
The Vikings are better than this, but time is running out fast – they play three playoff teams in a row (TEN, at HOU, at SEA) and their season may be over by Week 5.
The Colts are the #1 pass defense in yards allowed, #4 best in QB rating allowed, #3 best in yards per completion allowed. They are #5 best in rushing yards per game allowed. The Colts are suddenly a sneaky power run game and higher-end defensive unit. They should be the favorites to win the AFC South for sure…unless Philip Rivers breaks down too much before the finish line…he does not look great…
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- T.Y. Hilton (3-28-0/5) is not ‘shot’…he’s lost a step, but not shot/done yet. Good news is he’s still viable, bad news is he’s not the same ‘stud’ he used to be. I was hoping he’d be a sneaky WR1 candidate from the middle redraft rounds…he’s probably not.
He is working the slot and still ‘T.Y.’, so he gets respect. But superstar weeks look fewer and further apart now. Rivers is not selling his soul to throw it to him. He did/forced it a few times this game, but T.Y. is not really open as much as he used to be. Hilton did spring open for a 40+ yard TD, 2+ yards ahead of coverage, and Rivers floated right to him in stride and Hilton dropped it.
Could’ve been circumstantial on the dropped TD: https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/colts-insider/2020/09/21/colts-coach-frank-reich-t-y-hilton-lost-deep-ball-sun/5858385002/
I can look past a dropped TD in the sun…but not seeing Rivers ache to get T.Y. the ball is worrying me.
-- Michael Pittman (4-37-0/6) looked like an old pro in his first real work of 2020…he looked fine. But also, Rivers was not killing to get the ball to him either. But Rivers looked more comfortable with Pittman than Hilton, honestly.
The receivers might be fine here…but Rivers may be the bigger issue…that he can’t get them to the FF-promised land in 2020. Did you see Mike Williams’ stats last year? Not having Parris Campbell to take heat/coverage/focus away is not going to help anybody either.
When we lost Parris Campbell, we lost a junior Diontae Johnson pop that was in progress. It’s a crying shame.
-- Mo Alie-Cox (5-111-0/6) got the special treatment from Rivers but it was open/available/working and MAC bobbled the incoming treats but gathered them in for a big day.
Alie-Cox is fine, but when Jack Doyle comes back Mo is no mo, for FF. Then Trey Burton comes back soon too.
-- The Colts offense IS Jonathan Taylor (26-101-1, 2-9-0/2). As Josh Jacobs is to Jon Gruden, as Derrick Henry is to Mike Vrabel…so goes Taylor to Frank Reich now. Taylor is an undisputed RB1 for the ROS.
If he goes down it will be a Wilkins/Hines split they’re stuck with.
-- Where was Nyheim Hines (1-4-0/1)…top FF star of Week 1? He played 9 snaps…no clue why he was so limited. He wasn’t hurt.
I think they just power run gamed it and then when under control got Jordan Wilkins (9-40-0) extended training camp work to get him up to speed.
Hines will have better, more useful days ahead…you’d think.
-- Not much to say for the Vikings here for FF or otherwise. Same old same old Vikings. Kirk Cousins (11-26 for 113 yards, 0 TD/3 INTs) looks uninspired to say the least.
It was about this time last year, Cousins started so poorly and everyone tried to replace him with Sean Mannion. How’d that turn out for Cousins/Minnesota in the end?
-- Justin Jefferson (3-44-0/3) played a few more snaps, saw a few more targets this week…still don’t see a big star happening anytime soon. He may end up with BYE week value ahead just because the Vikings have nothing else to turn to, as Adam Thielen (3-31-0/8) was doubled all game it seemed.
-- Alexander Mattison (3-13—0, 1-3-0/2) seems like nothing, but you’ve seen all the ACLs…right? If Dalvin Cook gets one, Mattison an RB1 candidate in his place.
Keelan Cole and Russell Gage and such are cute, but none of them are going to be future WR1s. If you’re holding a WR like that as last roster spot guys for a gamble/depth…you might rather try to guess the next ACL-birthed superstar waiver RB of the week…for next week.
-- I mentioned some of the numbers on the Colts-DST earlier…they have strong defensive metrics and are the current #3 DST in fantasy with the Jets to face this week…and then the Bears…and then Cleveland…and then Cincy. A great four-week run with Indy-DST head. Might be a keep through their Week 8 BYE.
Snap Counts of Interest:
67 = Pittman
59 = Pascal
42 = Hilton
49 = J Taylor
17 = Wilkins
09 = Hines
48 = Thielen
42 = Bisi Johnson
29 = J Jefferson
