2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Divisional Playoffs: 49'ers 13, Packers 10 (by Ross Jacobs)
Five minutes into this game it was 7-0 Packers and I thought a blowout was coming. No way would the 49'ers be able to keep up with the Packers in scoring in this frigid game.
Well, as it turns out they didn't need to score a whole lot because they were able to hold GB to just one FG the rest of the game. A blocked punt for a TD would tie the game and a FG won it.
If you played this game 100 times in average weather I think GB wins 70%+, but on this particular day it was cold enough to hold down all scoring and one fluky play cost the Packers the win. That's football, love it or hate it.
SF is lucky to have made it to this point. They are an ok team with a very good defense, a nice run game, and just barely hanging on in the passing game with Garoppolo.
I'm so tired of hearing all the stupid arguments about him being “a winner.” All that means is he's fortunate. It does not mean he contributed in any significant way to the win. I heard the same thing about Tebow…and look at how that worked out. Winning games does not automatically equal good.
Luckily for them they draw the Rams in the conference championship game, a team they've beaten 5 times in a row. I'd like to make some cute argument about how SF is the lesser team, but it's hard to argue against beating a certain team/coach over and over. Maybe Shanahan has McVay's number? We'll see.
For the Packers it's a sad ending to an otherwise very good season. It was ‘Super Bowl’ or bust for them and everyone knew it. They were the best team in the league and just got unlucky at the end. That happens sometimes.
So what do they do now? They head into 2022 about $40 million over the projected cap. Rodgers alone is a $46 million dollar hit. Davante is a free agent, and we all know those two are tied at the hip. Rodgers has publicly said he doesn't want to be part of a rebuild, but I don't see an easy path to bringing back the gang for another go around.
Who would you cut if not Rodgers and Adams? Zadarius Smith, Preston Smith, and Randall Cobb are the three easiest names. That would clear up about $34 million but leave them with $20 million in dead cap, and then you lose any semblance of a pass rush.
And what about Rodgers? Sounds like he wants a pay day. On his current deal he'd be making only $26 million for the 2022 season, far below what he's worth on the open market. That's the issue with this situation. It's not just about getting below the cap, you also have to get far enough below to sign your draft class, fill out the roster with a few free agents, and pay up for Rodgers since it's clear he wants a raise.
It feels impossible to say that Rodgers could be traded. I keep trying to think of ways for the Packers to make this work because it will be a PR nightmare if they let him leave, but Rodgers holds all the cards here. Just like last year he could threaten to retire if GB plays hard ball. So I really think it comes down to Rodgers's decision and he'll base that on who all the Packers can reasonably bring back under the cap.
RC might disagree but this feels like the end of the road to me.
*RC NOTE: I think there’s a way to bring back Rodgers PLUS Adams, because I believe they are working in concert…they stay together or leave together.
Sign Rodgers or Adams to a big deal (top paid at their positions) but spread it out so the impact of two big deals is not overloaded in 2022. The goal being to structure a four-year deal for a three year run (as a guess on their time at the top remaining) knowing you might have to blow everything up year #4…pay them for past prime, or pay them all their money due as you release them year #4 and crush your cap for a season and announce a total rebuild season.
Green Bay should not let these guys go. They should bite the bullet and keep them and live with the consequences 3-4 years from now. Take the bird in the hand…
If Rodgers does indeed get traded I see three potential candidates. The 49'ers, the Raiders, and the Broncos. SF is likely his dream destination. It's no secret that he's always wanted to play for his hometown team and was disappointed when they drafted Alex Smith over him years ago. SF has the best roster of the three, enough salary cap to get a deal done, and Rodgers would get to play with Shanahan, a coach I think he has a great deal of respect for.
The Broncos and Raiders also make some sense as both have good cap situations and could afford to bring on both Rodgers and Adams. They both have borderline playoff caliber rosters. And both are close to California. Of the two I think Denver makes more sense because Carr complicates things for the Raiders just a bit, and Denver just hired GB's offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, to be their head coach.
If Rodgers goes to either of Denver or LV we suddenly have a very weird situation where Rodgers, Mahomes, and Herbert are all in the same division. Talk about a murderer's row.
If he winds up in SF you have to think that Trey Lance is part of the deal to get the trade done. Lance and Love would then end up competing for the starting job in GB. I have no idea who might win that competition. Lance is the more talented of the two, but he's also a year behind Love in development and Love has been with LaFleur longer.
For the 49'ers, if Rodgers does not end up there they have a decision to make, and it's one I would never have believed could happen one year ago. Do they stick with Garoppolo for another season? I think they do. I think Shanahan isn't ready for Lance to start yet, and what if Jimmy goes out and wins a Super Bowl in a couple weeks? Even if he doesn't it's hard to justify making the switch to your team unless they are convinced Trey is ready. For whatever reason, whenever Jimmy has been healthy this team keeps winning. They aren't going to want to stop that just because SF drafted some unproven young kid.
*RC NOTE: If you’re Denver, you hire Nathaniel Hackett because you believe you’re seriously getting Aaron Rodgers…whether in 2022 or 2023.
Pre-the Hackett hiring, I would have said it’s 90% likely Rodgers back with Green Bay on a new deal. Post-Hackett hired in Denver…I’d say it’s 50/50 Rodgers goes to Denver by 2023 season. Might be 2022 with GB and 2023 with Denver. It’s about to get interesting to say the least.
If you’re Denver, the only way to compete in that division is to have an ace QB of your own. Also, the value of the ‘up for sale’ Broncos franchise goes way up with Rodgers on the roster. You could see a 1-2 punch of a Rodgers trade to Denver, then the Broncos sold soon after.
Fantasy Notes
--Until Rodgers leaves, no WR has a prayer of mattering here except Adams. Lazard and MVS are just occasional tools to be used when absolutely needed. Other than that they are a distraction.
--One possible thing to watch for is Aaron Jones being a cap casualty. I know he just signed a new contract, but cutting him would save $9 million (with another $10 mil in dead cap). It's not ideal but it is possible.
Either way we all know that AJ Dillon is the future of this team. It's a full 50-50 split until Jones leaves (or gets hurt again), and that holds Dillon back for the foreseeable future. But the second Jones leaves Dillon is a top 5 dynasty RB instantly. They want him to be their Derrick Henry.
Even in this game you could see GB wanted to pound the ball with Dillon, and when he got hurt it really changed what they were trying to do.
Snap Counts of Interest
53 = Adams
51 = Lazard
30 = Cobb
19 = St. Brown
42 = Jones
15 = Dillon
52 = Aiyuk
37 = Deebo
30 = Jennings
