2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Lions 37, Packers 30
This game was meaningless for the Packers, but they ran some (not all/most) starters to begin the game and they went back-and-forth with the Lions playing this game to win ‘to finish on a strong note’ a.k.a. blowing a massive opportunity to secure the #1 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and all the things that could come with that.
The Lions led 17-13 at the half and held the lead into the 4th-quarter but then the Packers backups started rolling and they took the lead 30-27 for 4+ minutes remaining. The Lions…desperate to win, desperate to throw away the #1 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft…stepped it up and took back the lead with under 2 minutes left and went on to win it…which was a big loss in reality.
I don’t know why I do, why I fixate on it or expect somehow it will be different the next time -- but I continue to marvel at the sheer lunacy of NFL head coaches and their decision making. If you think I’m crazy about head coaches having no business sense and thinking it’s all about their coaching, and the players are just annoying pawns to move around their chess board – look at this game from Dan Campbell’s perspective…
Around halftime and into the 2nd-half, the Lions would have seen (on the scoreboard) the Jacksonville Jaguars actually beating the Colts…meaning if Jacksonville won and Detroit lost, the Lions would secure the #1 overall pick in the draft. With that #1 pick you have all the options at your disposal…a franchise QB (if they’re there) or trade the pick for more picks/assets. No one cares about the #2 pick all that much, but they will pay up for that #1…all the attention is with the holder of the #1 pick.
The Lions could’ve pulled Jared Goff (and others) in the 2nd-half and went with a backup QB to try and further ensure the loss likelihood. They did not. The meaningless win that the coaches think is some brilliant launching pad for next season is a joke. Defeating the Packers backups last second, which is actually embarrassing, is not momentum for next season -- but the lunatic coaches don’t see it that way…this meaningless win just cost the Lions a ton of future assets. But when you’re a delusional coach, the picks don’t matter because it’s coaching that matters, it’s ‘a win at any cost’ that matters…not draft capital/long-term thinking.
I would have tanked this game, if I were the Lions – bench Goff, play the 3rd-string QB, say ‘you want to take a look at what you got’, and do everything to lose just in case Jacksonville won…even though it was unlikely the Jags would – but then the Jags shockingly did win. But not Dan Campbell…no, ‘he’s a winner’. He believes in pickup trucks and blue jeans and apple pie and hard work. No one will remember this win…they already don’t. They will remember it 1-5 years from now when/if the eventual #1 pick in this draft is a superstar and all the Lions had to do was NOT throw all their starters at the Packers’ backups in a meaningless Week 18 game. But likely the fans will forget this moment as well, down the road. Campbell will be fired in 2-3 years and the big wheel keeps on churning.
The worst thing Dan Campbell will have ever done as an NFL head coach…is win this Week 18 game.
The Packers get the win via a loss, which actually is smart on their behalf – helping make sure the Lions didn’t get the #1 pick, helping the intra-divisional foe blow their own foot off…brilliant. Not that Matt LaFleur was thinking that, but it was brilliant nonetheless…’brilliant luck’. The Packers are headed to the Super Bowl regardless…
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Jordan Love (10-17 for 134 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) started the 2nd-half and for the second time in extended play this season…he looked completely unimpressive. He tore up the 2021 preseason. Was one of the best QBs that I watched in the preseason…that QB is in hiding in the regular season. Love is panicked, jumpy, and the offensive plan is dumbed down to a bunch of quick passes and rollouts for him.
This should’ve been a time for Love to really take some chances, for the coaching staff to let him prove himself. Nope. He just ran safe plays coaches run when they know their QB isn’t capable.
I’ve moved to neutral/anti-Love at this point. His preseason had me buying in. This regular season, and my prior college scouting say…’I’m out’.
Green Bay better give Aaron Rodgers whatever he wants in order for him to stay.
-- Think the Lions are serious about replacing Jared Goff (21-30 for 238 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT)…or at least drafting the guy for the future? Well, the Lions staff are coaching one of the Senior Bowl teams, which is a tremendous opportunity for teams in need/want of a QB to see the top guy(s), if they attend, to spend a full week with these guys and really get to know them better than any team/organization out there.
The teams coaching in the Senior Bowl get to push for the QBs/players they want to work with. The Jets have Zach Wilson, so they’re not pushing to deeply scout the top QBs. The Lions, you might suspect, are interested in a young QB…so, the Detroit staff had their choice of any three QBs for Mobile. Kenny Pickett is the obvious first choice…and/or most certainly would be in the top 3 of QB prospects Detroit would wanna look at.
So, of course, the Lions put in for Malik Willis, Sam Howell, and Bailey Zappe. That’s as poor a scouting job as you will find…one of the single dumbest personnel/GM-ing decisions I’ve ever seen in my time covering football things.
You could not get a clearer sign that the Lions are not taking a QB at #2 than that (or that’s the way they think now). Anyone who mock drafts a QB to Detroit at #2 has no idea what they’re doing.
If Detroit is either unaware of/don’t think Pickett is worthy of a look…then it is even worse in that organization than you could even imagine.
The two worst coaching things I’ve seen in the past month/year…Detroit playing to win Week 18 (and winning) and then the Detroit staff not choosing to be with Kenny Pickett all week. It’s utterly inexplicable how moronic it all is. But Dan Campbell is gonna try really hard for you good, hard-working people of Detroit…he’s gonna fight to the end for you.
…I’m Dan Campbell, and I’ve approved this MESSAGE.
Suckers.
-- The Lions played this game to win, and Dan Campbell split Jamaal Williams (13-42-0, 1-9-0/1) and D’Andre Swift (7-39-1, 4-16-0/5) in this ‘must win game’.
Since Dan Campbell has taken over the offensive reins (midseason) from later-fired Anthony Lynn, Swift got an initial surge of carries and then Swift got hurt, and upon his return the carries/touches/snaps really haven’t been there like before. Not sure why or what the plan was. I mean, this is the Lions playing every game like it’s the Super Bowl…coaching every game like it’s the Super Bowl…so, Swift being throttled back is a bit odd.
Anthony Lynn is gone, so we don’t truly know what the Swift plan is for 2022. The way 2021 ended, I’m not sure that Campbell is as in love with Swift as the rest of the world is…but it’s hard to tell. I wouldn’t just go into 2022 assuming he’s ‘the guy’.
-- You barely knew Amon-Ra St. Brown (8-109-1/10) was in the NFL up to Week 12…and then he went on a tear his final 6 games of the season: 8.5 rec. (11.1 targets), 93.3 yards, 0.83 TDs per game…the #2 FF WR in PPR from Weeks 13-18.
Why is no one buying him as a top FF WR going into 2022? Why am I not? We’ll explore that question in this offseason on the DOBB side of things. He’s on the list of players to take for the mock redo Dynasty Rookie Draft we have going right now, so we’ll discuss it some there but then we’ll likely examine him deeper with an offseason piece because it’s really strange that he came on like a hurricane with numbers, but when you watch the games…he’s not doing anything all that noticeable.
-- Patrick Taylor (11-53-1, 2-3-0/2) took over at RB in the 2nd-half…he’s one of the best #3 RBs in the NFL. He’s a minor version of A.J. Dillon (14-63-0, 1-4-0/1)…physically big, pounding runners with pretty nimble feet and can handle themselves in the passing game. Likely, Taylor runs as the #3 RB again in 2022.
A.J. Dillon got a good number of touches as the season wore on, but no real signature moments. 1 TD in the first 9 games of the season, 6 TDs in the final 8 games however…more of a pace I would expect from Dillon in the future. He’s a 10-15+ TD a season guy when he becomes the lead.
-- Allen Lazard (5-75-2/6) scored 2 TDs here…5 TDs in his last five games. 8 TDs in his last 10 games. I’m not seeing any real magic between him and Aaron Rodgers, just someone has to get other TDs besides Davante…and with Robert Tonyan gone and MVS + Cobb out hurt on and off, Lazard got some extra love. I’m a fan of Lazard’s but I’m not seeing anything special happening…just good WR in a great place at the right time.
Packers FF Notes for their game vs. SF…
-- David Bakhtiari likely out stings the offense a little. Not a death blow by any means but having your quality left tackle out is a factor versus better opponents…and the 49ers defensive front has been much improved going into this game.
-- Aaron Jones should be back 100% for this game, which means a hot hand split between he and A.J. Dillon.
-- Allen Lazard has been hot but with MVS (maybe) and Cobb back this week…it’s anyone’s guess as to who will enjoy any Davante leftovers.
-- The GB-DST vs. Jimmy G. is a battle between the best defense left in the playoffs vs. the worst QB left in the playoffs…it should be the differentiating factor in this game.
Snap Counts of Interest:
65 = St. Brown
49 = J Reynolds
42 = Raymond
32 = Swift
24 = Jam Williams
06 = C Reynolds
37 = Dillon
31 = P Taylor
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups have begun**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
