2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Bears 25, Seahawks 24
The Bears really should not have won this game, but as RC has been telling us for years, Nick Foles is magic and somehow finds a way to win games like this. Foles came in off the bench, in the cold and snow, and immediately looked like the best QB Chicago has started all year. He pulls off the 4th quarter comeback, and what will it get him? Another chance to start against the Giants? Nope. He's being sent right back to the bench for Andy Dalton.
Thank you for your services, Nick! You are no longer needed.
Seattle controlled this game from the get go. They were the better team, and Chicago really didn't do anything to stop them the entire time. But every time the Seahawks got a bigger lead, the Bears would somehow put together a drive to get it back to a one score game.
With just minutes to go Seattle looked like they were ready to slam the door shut for good, but a missed 39 yard FG gave the Bears some life.
Chicago didn't immediately capitalize, but they got the ball back a second time after turning it over on downs, and this time Foles found Jimmy Graham for the TD. An amazing 2-pt conversion catch by Damiere Byrd gave Chicago the lead, and the Seahawks were unable to get in field goal position with about a minute left.
Of course, this game didn't really matter for either team as they've both been eliminated from playoff contention. Both of them are now 5-10 and will likely finish at 6-11, and both teams could very well be looking for new coaches in a few weeks.
You can probably use the Seattle defense against the Lions this week in a pinch, especially if Goff is out, but I'd be more interested in using Chicago's defense against the Giants. The Bears have been very good at generating sacks this year (5th in the league), and the Giants offensive line is a travesty, plus you'll have the statue known as Mike Glennon back there.
Fantasy Notes
--Rashaad Penny (17-135-1) has to be in the conversation as a RB1 this week against the Lions pathetic run defense. He's kind of offending my sensibilities with his success right now because all I see him doing is running fast straight ahead, BUT it's working, so why would I fight the trends?
The Seahawks are feeding him the ball and suddenly starting to actually open up some running lanes for him, and when Penny can get going downhill he's actually quite difficult to stop. I don't think the Lions will be able to attack him at the line this week, so definitely start Penny at RB if you have him. I will be.
--What's wrong with DK Metcalf (2-41-1/5)? Nothing. He looks like one of the most physically dominant receivers in the league. I'm wondering if things aren't great between him and Wilson though, because after the first TD they connected on (presumably to shut Metcalf up after he's been understandably whining about targets), Wilson rarely looked his way again.
Metcalf is open. Russell just isn't looking at him most plays. He's also being sent deep a lot, and on the rare times Wilson does throw it to him short, he's often off-target. To me it's Russell that doesn't look quite right. Maybe the finger is bothering him or maybe he's just checked out from dealing with Pete Carroll, but he's just not playing like the Russell we've come to know, and it's dragging everything down, Metcalf included.
If you have DK in a championship game this week, you basically have to start him against a beat up Detroit secondary, but he's more WR2.5 than anything right now.
--The Seattle skill position player I was most surprised to see so involved is Gerald Everett (4-68-1/5). He's being used like a jumbo receiver right now, and he's just as involved in the game plan as Metcalf or Lockett.
In his last 7 games, Everett has gone 30-287-3/38 (10.95 ppg in ppr). That's solid TE1 work. I'd look for that to continue this week against the Lions defense, but I am just a bit nervous because his two bad games in that stretch were the two games Seattle won. It seems like he might be used more when they are trying to hang in games where they are down. Food for thought.
--Allen Robinson might be back from his bout with COVID this week, but that depends on how he's feeling. He apparently struggled with it and still wasn't doing well a few days ago. I'd probably say the same whether it was true or not if I was in his shoes. Why rush back for a team that's out of the playoffs and will be starting Dalton on Sunday? My guess is Robinson sits out this week and likely week 18 as well. Even if he does play you're not starting him in fantasy.
--I'm coming off my completely negative view of Cole Kmet (4-49-0/5) a bit. Obviously he's been working ok enough for fantasy, but I've been totally against him for the future because every time I've watched him he looks beyond sluggish.
This was the first time all year I've seen him look, not good, but decent. He wasn't moving like a slug. Still don't see any zip to his movements, but at least “average” is an improvement over “turtle.” And who knows maybe he can find an extra gear David Montgomery-style.
--Rookie WR Dazz Newsome got his first catch after making his debut last week. Wasn't a fan when I watched him with North Carolina. Not a fan now. Just another generic small receiver.
Snap Counts of Interest
63 = Mooney
62 = Byrd
34 = Newsome
23 = Goodwin
49 = Metcalf
48 = Lockett
29 = Swain
20 = Eskridge
47 = Everett
30 = Penny
22 = Dallas
