2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Packers 24, Browns 22
The Packers seemed to have this game under control all game. The Browns fired out to a 6-0 lead after their first drive but then the Pack just took control from there and eventually had a two-score lead going into the 4th-quarter, with the Browns turning the ball over like crazy…I thought (during the live watch) that GB would win by 3+ scores in the end.
But the Browns kept hanging in there and then suddenly it was a 2-point game, and the Browns got the ball back with 2:05 left, and were in perfect position to win the game. But, of course, another bad interception and…ball game.
The Browns fall to (7-8) but still have a decent path to the playoffs, and winning the division. If CLE wins out and Cincy loses to KC Week 17, the Browns are AFC North champions. But if the Bengals beat KC this week (which they have a good shot to), then the Browns are done…before they get to their MNF game. However that it all shakes out, I don’t think the Browns are going to make it – the Bengals are a better team all-around, plus Baltimore still has paths, etc. Too many hurdles for the Browns to get to the finish line/playoffs, but if they win out it’s very possible they sneak in.
The Packers (12-4) are cruising towards a #1 seed, but if they lose one of their next two games and Dallas and the Rams wins out…then Dallas is the #1 seed. The Packers MUST get that home field advantage to get back to the Super Bowl, in my opinion. No home field, then all the other teams are on even footing with Green Bay playing in Florida (TB) or in domes (DAL, LAR, ARI). Preserving this Week 16 with a final drive stand/turnover/win over the Browns was huge in the big picture.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The biggest thing I can report about this game is not about this game, but about next week’s game. The Packers will play Week 17 vs. MIN at Lambeau Field…and it will be one of the coldest football games in recent NFL history, one of the coldest played in Green Bay in the last decade or two.
4-5 degrees, feels like -10. Not good…not good for offensive output in the passing game, or otherwise really.
In very cold weather games, Aaron Rodgers (24-34 for 202 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) usually throws for around 200 yards and is super-efficient with 2-3 TD passes. But this one is going to be extra cold. Whatever his output is…it’s not likely to be a crazy 300+ yards, 3-4+ TD ‘smash’ event. He’s likely to be very subdued in his output…it is going to be frickin’ freezing out there.
-- With the weather outlook, I wouldn’t try to deploy Allen Lazard (2-45-1/5) or a (if) returning Marquez Valdes-Scantling (DNP/COVID) either…it’s not worth it. Not worth trying to stack or otherwise. One of them may score a TD…but I bet Davante-Dillon-Jones-Lewis has an edge not long TD guys like MVS, especially.
-- The weather is built for A.J. Dillon (12-66-0, 5-21-0/6)…I’m thinking back to that bad weather game this time last season (colder, snowing, sloppy) where Dillon broke out with a star performance – 21 carries, 124 yards, 2 TDs v. TEN…as Aaron Jones took a backseat.
It will be a likely split of some kind between Dillon-Jones, but the scales tip (in theory) in the favor of Dillon in this type of weather.
-- The Browns will play in some cold weather on MNF Week 17, but not near what MIN v. GB will have to endure.
I expect the Browns to go all-in on heavy-touch-count Nick Chubb (17-126-1, 3-58-0/4) with Kareem Hunt (DNP-ankle) still not 100% but in a minor role…if he’s back, and then D’Ernest Johnson (4-58-0, 1-8-0/2) ready if Hunt is out.
D’Ernest has come into games, sparingly, with Hunt out and been terrific with his few touches per game the last few weeks. No big drop-off from Hunt-to-D’Ernest. And D’Ernest is playing so well it really makes the 2022 offseason the right time for CLE to trade the aging asset in Hunt at a peak market value.
-- The Browns have to go heavy Chubb as a game plan for a number of reasons…but one big reason is Baker Mayfield (26-36 for 222 yards, 2 TDs/4 INTs) is all banged up and is probably hurting this team more than he thinks he’s helping.
In Baker's last five games, he’s (2-3) with 7 TD passes, 8 interceptions…completing around 55% of his passes. It’s not good for the Browns…it’s not good for the Browns passing game options for FF output. I would not want to use ANY Browns WR/TE option this week for FF.
-- On my Tuesday Night Video Q&A, I turned heel on Donovan Peoples-Jones (1-5-0/6) because I read a report that I THOUGHT was a quote from Kevin Stefanski on how he’s wanting Anthony Schwartz’s (1-5-1/1) role to grow and play more snaps ahead -- and that the snaps would come from DPJ. It’s an odd thing to say, but coaches mean things like that when they give specifics. However…
I went back to clip the quote to add it to this section…and…I can’t find it. I did find where BEAT WRITERS reported the Stefanski comments that Schwartz was earning more snaps, but then they shoehorned in their own assumptions that Donovan Peoples-Jones would give up snaps because of it. They made it seem like Stefanski said it, or I read it wrong/too fast, but either way/apparently it’s just idiot FF writers running with ‘theories’.
I was ready to buy it because DPJ has caught 13-of-31 (41.9%) targets the past five games as more of the ‘#1 WR’, but I know a lot of it is Baker injury/Mullens’s one-time start and that Stefanski likes DPJ.
So…I need to correct my bad assumption from the Video Q&A…
1) DPJ is not for sure losing snaps/is not in the doghouse with Stefanski.
2) I need to bump DPJ back up in my Dynasty Stash rankings, after slicing him down on this (bad/misinformed) news.
3) Schwartz is still a ‘keep an eye on’ option for this week on MNF…a pickup last second if Diontae goes down with COVID Monday morning type thing.
More snaps for Schwartz can come off Rashard Higgins…and remember when Demetric Felton was so good that supposedly earned more snaps? He has been a ghost since Stefanski said that around Weeks 2-3.
-- Another solid performance for the Packers-DST here, aided by Baker issues…4 picks, 5.0 sacks.
The Vikings are a solid offense/tougher matchup for the GB-DST in Week 17 but considering the -10 ‘feels like’…we think GB-DST is a possible top 5-10 DST again this week. No Adam Thielen either, FYI.
Snap Counts of Interest:
33 = A Jones
26 = Dillon
33 = Deguara
25 = M Lewis
13 = Tyler Davis
59 = DPJ
54 = Landry
44 = Higgins
11 = Schwartz
41 = Chubb
26 = D’Ernest Johnson
04 = Felton
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
