2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Chiefs 36, Steelers 10
I’m not sure what is more embarrassing…
1) How bad the Steelers truly are. They are the worst team ‘still in the race’ from the playoffs in the NFL…along with the Falcons.
2) How bad the AFC North is…the Steelers still have a viable path to win the division, or worst case still get a wild card.
3) How poorly the Steelers played in this game. It was KC 23-0 at the half, and it wasn’t that close. It was 30-0 KC deep into the 3rd-quarter before the Steelers settled for a field goal to really give them a sweet mental boost about themselves…they scored three whole points and were only losing 30-3 now…much better for the team psyche.
It was soon 36-3 KC with a late junk-time TD getting us to the 36-10 beatdown final. The Steelers played like they weren’t even there as KC pushed all the backups in that they could and laughed up on the sidelines.
However, if the Bengals lose to KC Sunday Week 17…then the Week 17 MNF game between the Browns (7-8) at the Steelers (7-7-1) could position the winner for a division title if the were to win Week 18 as well. It’s not improbable that the Steelers win out and somehow find their way to the playoffs or division title. I would bet they don’t get to either because they are the worst…but this 2021 Steelers group always defies logic.
Kansas City is now (11-4) and in the driver’s seat for the #1 seed, but Tennessee is very much alive if KC loses one game ahead, and if they lose to Cincy this week…then the Bengals are suddenly in the #1 seed race. You assume KC will pull it out, but Tennessee has a great path as well…having already beaten KC for any tiebreaker.
Pittsburgh Dad’s take of this game always sums it up better than I can: https://youtu.be/7gt9GOVRXtQ
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Brace yourself for this shocking news, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire (9-27-1, 1-4-0/1) got hurt in this game and is likely/going to miss Week 17.
You ‘work hard’ to get those Dynasty Rookie #1 Draft picks and they have been disappointments within 2-3 years, if not one year, in retrospect. CEH is one of the worst #1.01 DRD picks in recent history…seeing how most had to take CEH over Jonathan Taylor. I bought into that logic for a bit at the start of the post-Draft valuations of their Dynasty Rookie Draft year…the notion that the KC landing spot was too juicy, despite JT being 2x the player/talent. I later switched to just ranking/taking Taylor as the summer went on, but then swapped back to CEH slightly due to his real world (to trade) value – but in reality, I advised to trade your 1st-round DRD picks for a haul…and did so again last year, and probably will again in 2022. The #1.01 DRD pick steak is never as good as the sizzle (*see, also: the #1 pick in your redraft).
Just like in the future – those that were faced with the choice, and my rankings never changed on it either, those that ranked/picked Najee Harris 1.01 over Javonte Williams are going to regret down the line. And maybe will regret not taking Kyle Pitts 1.01 over any of them as well. I digress…
With CEH out, we all assume Darrel Williams (11-55-0, 3-30-0/5) will be the obvious play…and he is. But don’t overlook how much opportunity Derrick Gore (12-43-0, 3-61-0/3) may get. It’s a big game with Cincy this week, so I’m not sure how much KC wants to mess around with a UDFA rookie type (Gore) versus the experienced hand of Williams…but KC has been pushing Gore more and more little tastes/touches to get him ready. Gore-Williams might be a cleaner/as good as version of the CEH-Williams duo.
If KC gets up and subdues Cincy, like they did here to Pitt…then Gore may surprise with the later-in-game touches he gets from Williams. Maybe. Something to watch/consider down in deeper roster leagues.
-- Yes, I know Najee Harris (19-93-0, 5-17-0/7) sucks and is becoming an FF-letdown, but he gets volume. Even in this pathetic game, he got 11 FF points, 16 PPR pts. You’ll take it. He’s a 50-50 shot each week to get a 1-yard plunge. Again, it’s not his fault exclusively…he has no O-Line or offensive game plan to help hide his flaws and play to his strengths. He’s been visually terrible (for a ‘top guy’) but is the #4 RB in raw total PPR points tallied this season-to-date (only Taylor, Ekeler, Mixon better).
My note on Najee here is not to take another jab at him, but just to note – if you’re playing Najee for FF this week…be sure to have a MNF guy in reserve just in case the worst news hits on Monday morning/pregame. If you are not using ____ player playing Sunday 1pmET, and this is it/there is no game next week/this is the title game, then you should cut those players loose by like 12:55pmET (or whatever close to your deadline) to give yourself open spaces to grab anything you might need later that day or for Monday pregame if Najee gets COVID or whatever.
You should already consider adding Bennie Snell now if your roster will allow it, to protect any Najee bad news in advance (because if your opponent is smart, they will drop useless players and grab Snell to block you – and if your opponent is going Najee, you consider doing the same to block them). D’Ernest Johnson is a deeper option playing Monday if a Najee-Monday crisis hits. Leave nothing to chance.
If it’s a great player you would consider cutting before 1pmET Sunday, maybe you don’t do it -- for fear your opponents would quick grab and use them…you’ll have to see how close you want to cut it, but all other depth randos who play at 1pmET Sunday and they are not starting for you nor would they for your opponent, clear them out before 1pmET/whatever your deadline is. Keep your roster spots flexible for any bad news that could happen later that day or Monday.
-- Same mindset for Diontae Johnson (6-51-1/9)…and whether you use Najee or Diontae, they should be in your Flex so if something happens you can replace them with a player at any position available for your Flex.
I just want to note: that if Diontae goes out…Chase Claypool (4-41-0/6) would become the Diontae…but so would Ray-Ray McCloud share in those responsibilities.
A target comparison on them since Week 13…
Ray-Ray: 4-8-3-8 (23 total)
Claypool: 3-9-2-6 (20)
Washington: 1-6-5-2 (14)
A snaps comparison on them since Week 12…
Ray-Ray: 67%-85%-67%-62%
Claypool: 63%-59%-63%-82%
Washington: 37%-41%-35%-31%
-- Tyreek Hill (2-19-0/2) had a terrible FF game at the wrong time, but it was nothing on him…this game was a joke and they rolled it up on offense using secondary figures, because the Steelers are so awful. Hill played barely half the game. If this cost you a trip to Week 17…blame how bad the Steelers suck, not Tyreek or St. Patrick.
Byron Pringle (6-75-2/7) had his first huge FF game of the season. It was just random. The four games before this, Pringle had 2-4-1-4 for targets in a game for just 5-2-3-5 PPR points. No breakout here. Kelce being out helped push this too…along with Tyreek playing half a game.
Pringle got the bump here. Josh Gordon (0-0-0/3) did not. Gordon is a joke. Four catches on 12 targets in 10 games for Gordon as a Chief. Wow. Great job by the GM making sure Mahomes has plenty of weapons…
Snap Counts of Interest:
55 = Pringle
46 = Dem Robinson
30 = Hardman
29 = Tyreek
50 = Gray
25 = B Bell
29 = Darrel W
21 = CEH
19 = Gore
65 = Diontae
59 = Claypool
45 = McCloud
28 = Cody White
22 = J Wash
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
