2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Texans 30, Jags 16
Two so-so rookie QBs tried to game-manage their way to a victory, and the one who played better, (Mills) and has played better all season, won. These are the two worst teams in the league, and they just had their Super Bowl…and by ‘winning’ the Texans lose key draft position. The Jags are closing in on the #1 pick…again. Where they will butcher it…again.
Rumors circulating that David Culley is one-and-done as head coach. Likely, I believe. He was brought in to try and sway Deshaun Watson…and it didn’t work. He has an awful team that’s out of control, and it’s his fault…he’s so out of touch, he is so the poster child of a long-time nice guy assistant that has embarrassed himself as a head coach because he’s not head coach material. When I watch him behind the scenes, or mic’d up…it’s high school level stuff…junior high stuff.
Enough about these two embarrassing teams, because it doesn’t really matter who they hire as a coach…it’s the organization.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- All the tape scouting in this was about the two rookie QBs…
We’re 15 weeks into the season and two things are coming to light:
1) Trevor Lawrence (22-38 for 210 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) is no way shape or form a ‘generational QB’.
So, with that – the entirety of professional NFL analysis and scouting is wildly wrong AGAIN. They are so wrong about everything every year, we should just assume they are always wrong/gonna be wrong and thus we should only report out when they get something right – that’s the real unique news, when they call something in advance and they were right.
Football scouting is so ‘What are other people saying…what are the masses saying collectively? Ok, ‘me too then’. The original (and on-going) #MeToo movement is NFL scouting and analysis.
Lawrence isn’t a terrible prospect…he’s just not generational, and I’m not sure he’s even really all that good.
Justin Herbert you could see almost instantly, but for sure you could see it by Week 15 of his rookie season. Ditto Joe Burrow who played half a rookie season was easy to see. Not so with Trevor. I’ve not seen one moment this season where I was like ‘wow’ with anything Lawrence has done. I have seen moments/flashes with Fields, Lance, Wilson…but not Lawrence.
And then #2…
2) Davis Mills (19-30 fo4 209 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) might be as good as Trevor Lawrence, which is a shockwave to the Jaguars system…not meant as a compliment to the Texans.
Davis Mills looks like a Mac Jones clone to me, and Lawrence a taller more athletic version of them. All perfectly groomed (read: overcoached, overtrained) competent QBs. I thought Mills would be a bust…I was wrong there…so the mainstream can point to that to make fun of me back at making fun of them for Trevor Lawrence – but, to me, the Lawrence scouting miss was momentous.
Me thinking that Mills was a D-/F grade prospect and he might be a solid ‘C’…I can live with that because I don’t want D or F…or C quarterbacks for my NFL or FF teams.
Here’s a Mac Jones stop and think…if Davis Mills were drafted by Belichick, and he got the same push this year (which he might have if he was drafted there), then Mills would be having a similar year to Jones…or better. I believe. Mills has been a shockingly patient and aggressive and fearless QB…one I didn’t think had any of those NFK-starter traits besides ‘smart’ and ‘mechanically sound’. ‘C’ grade QBs can game manage your NFL team just fine, as rookies, in this new era of player.
I think Mills has been more impressive because he’s showing talent/success with a full-scale disaster around him, from his O-Line to weaponry to coaching staff…where Jones was ‘born’ on the right side of the tracks going to New England/Belichick.
If I were an NFL GM taking over Jacksonville pre-2021 NFL Draft, but knowing what I know today, and not having Urban Meyer coaching my team or sticking his finger in my crack, my QB draft board rankings might look like this:
1a) Zach Wilson – the only pure, obvious arm talent in this draft.
1b) Trey Lance – could be the best total package, or a phenomenal flop because he potentially cannot read NFL defenses or throw with accuracy…but if he develops it, he’ll be ‘generational’ at his size and movement skills, a ‘next Josh Allen’ type.
4) Justin Fields – taking raw talent/skills over worries about his on-and-off field demeanors/attitudes.
4) Davis Mills – the scrappier version of Mac Jones. More arm talent than Jones.
5) Mac Jones – the safe, smart game manager in the Taylor Heinicke vein, but not as scrappy as Heinicke.
6) Trevor Lawrence – he might wind up #3 on this list in the end…he has tools and talents, but I’m afraid he’s been so coddled, so told how great he is, that he’ll never ‘grow’ the way I’d want. The media hype, the media falsehood/dereliction of duty may cost him his career unwittingly. I don’t see Lawrence improving as we go, but that will be blamed on Urban…more coddling, excuses.
Just my knee-jerk reaction re-ranking. I’d have a real debate of Wilson v. Lance, and then I’d trade all the other picks to teams that wanted the other QBs.
The rankings would be different for FF/Dynasty for obvious ‘scoring’ and ‘situational’ reasons. We’ll discuss this offseason, for fun.
-- This was a perfect spot for James Robinson (18-75-1, 3-13-0/6) to go-off…facing a terrible v. the run defense and the first game sans Urban which they were gonna force-feed Robinson to smooth things over with him…and we got a ‘meh’ output from expectations.
Facing the jets this week looks juicy for JRob…but is it? Is anything juicy for Jacksonville players?
-- Brandin Cooks (7-102-2/10) is the Texans offense…and will miss Week 16 with COVID. Will anyone pickup the slack?
No one can really replace Cooks, but I’d bet my nickel on Nico Collins (2-14-0/4) as some kind of option – the best relationship Mills has outside of Cooks is with Collins. I thought it would produce this game…it didn’t, but note Collins caught a TD pass in this game but landed just out of bounds.
-- Houston had so many defenders out that rookie LB, who I like, Garret Wallow (11 tackles, 1 sack) drew the start and responded with 11 tackles and was generally flying around all over. He’s a good player. He has a future. I think he could be a big safety, or a nice inside or outside linebacker.
Wallow and Roy Lopez (COVID) being drafted shows someone in the Texans personnel department must have a CFM subscription – did you notice they also claimed Jalen Camp when JAX cut him? That’s a mighty big coincidence.
I’m not sure using the Texans is a good sales pitch for what CFM can do for you for your Fantasy/Dynasty scouting/planning, but maybe it will 2-3 years from now as they all develop. But get CFM anyway, you’ll love it…and we need the support to fight the mainstream scouting disasters oversold to you/foisted upon you such as generational Trevor Lawrence. The new CFM sign ups will begin early January.
Hey, Cal McNair…call me.
Snap Counts of Interest:
38 = Rex B
12 = DJ-no-K
09 = Royce Freeman
44 = O’Shaughnessy
20 = Hollister
18 = Manhertz
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
