2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Bengals 15, Broncos 10
This was a slugfest between two of the better ‘almost’ teams…
Denver is ‘almost’ a playoff-worthy team…they are a step away, their defense is really coming on, but they have a problem on offense/QB (Teddy).
Cincinnati is an ‘almost’ too…almost the best team in the AFC. I will probably say this every month of every year until the Bengals win a Super Bowl: Had they drafted Sewell/Slater instead of Ja’Marr Chase they would be the best team in the AFC right now and poised to be that in 2022+. You don’t want to play Cincinnati in the playoffs as it is. 2021 may not be their time, but watch out in 2022-2023.
This game was two good teams slugging it out and battling with field goals, and then the game changed in the 3rd-quarter. Cincy leading 9-3 and then Teddy Bridgewater took a hit and landed on his head and was taken out of the game for good. Drew Lock entered and the offense suddenly had a spark…Denver took a 10-9 lead. Cincy took it back soon after to go up 15-10. Denver was driving into the Cincy red zone mid-4th-quarter and then a weird play where Lock had the ball just taken from his hands by a pass rusher…no real contact, just reach out…a snatch & grab job and a crucial turnover.
The teams exchanged a few drives in those few final minutes, but their defenses were so tight, no scoring…and Cincy held on for the win.
The Bengals rise to (8-6) and find themselves sudden leaders of the AFC North…and the favorites to capture the title. If Cincy defeats Baltimore this week, then the Bengals should have the inside track at the AFC North (70%+ chance by estimates if CIN wins and CLE-PIT also lose, as expected, this week), but it’s still very much in flux. If there is a football god, the Bengals will win the division – they are the best team in the AFC North by far.
The Broncos fall to (7-7) and need to get to 10 wins to realistically have a shot at the playoffs…thus, they need to ‘win out’. They’re not likely to do that with at LAC Week 17, and v. KC Week 18. Denver is still alive for the playoffs, but it’s a very low probability…they’re essentially dead for the playoffs.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- This offense just looks better, more dangerous with Drew Lock (6-12 for 88 yards, 1 TD/0 INT). It’s too late now but had Denver just groomed Lock through the entire year with their defense coming on strong – this could have been a dangerous playoff wild card. Instead, they will likely fall short and probably get Vic Fangio fired…but who really needs to go is O-C Pat Shurmur.
The offense will not fall off with Lock this week v. LV (how could it get worse?)…he takes more chances, but he also makes more things happen.
Lock helps Albert Okwuegbunam (3-58-0/4) as they are well-documented friends/college teammates. Albert might be a TE1 shot this week, but it really more hurts/drops Noah Fant and rises Okwuegbunam up to the Fant TE1.5 projection level…potentially.
Nothing, not even Lock, can help Courtland Sutton (2-12-0/7)…he looks terrible. Mike Hilton (4 tackles) ate him alive. Also did you know Jerry Jeudy (0-0-0/4) is still in the NFL? Boy, the Henry Ruggs and Jerry Jeudy Alabama WR high pick draft duo really have mattered nicely in the NFL?
Which reminds me…this Bengals defense is really good. They squashed the Broncos most of this game without their best defensive player out with COVID (Awuzie).
-- The better defense of these two really good defenses…is the Denver Broncos defense. They are really starting to emerge. It’s one thing for Cincy to shutdown this Denver disaster offense led by Teddy and failure O-C Pat Shurmur. It’s another to make Joe Burrow (15-22 for 157 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) struggle.
Tee Higgins (2-23-0/3) caught two passes in the first 7 minutes and then they locked him down the next 53 minutes…no catches. The Denver secondary/coverage unit is finally all healthy and maybe as good as it gets in the NFL right now. Ja’Marr Chase (1-3-0/4) got totally wiped out. Better game coming for the Cincy WRs against BAL. This was a Denver thing, not a self-induced Cincy passing game failure.
-- I thought Joe Mixon (17-58-0, 1-2-0/1) was in real trouble to play Week 16 with the injury he had late in this game, but (as of this writing) Mixon has practiced in full two days in a row, so he must be good-to-go. Full trust.
-- Lastly…
I’m so proud of myself for pushing Evan McPherson (3/3 FGs) as a specific Week 15 playoff game monster upside kicking at Denver (the air)…and, well, he hit a 53 and 58 yard FG for the sweet bonus action and then added another 26-yarder to get you an RB2 type of week…winning some people their FF-games Week 15.
It brings me so much joy to watch all these games, to scout all these players, to watch the Senior Bowl practices and watch all the tape college and pro to get a feel for these guys…including kickers, and then months of work can mean the win-loss with such a move as switching kickers to McPherson in a do-or-die week, and it hits for all of us that utilized it.
The little things…
Snap Counts of Interest:
44 = Javonte
31 = Gordon
60 = Fant
30 = Albert O.
31 = Mixon
16 = Perine
53 = Browning
42 = J Griffith (9 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 QB hits…and should start again this week for Kenny Young)
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
