2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Cowboys 27, Football Team 20
24-0 Dallas at the half. And as we are learning in the NFL the last 2-14 weeks…no huge lead is ever safe. Teams take a big halftime lead and start to go into a shell in the 2nd-half, while the down team starts playing with reckless abandon. The ahead team plays not to lose…and then they almost do lose.
Washington had this 24-point lead down to 27-20 with 3+ minutes left, and with the ball -- but as they drove down for a game tie/win/loss…they threw a pick…and ‘ballgame’. It really shouldn’t have been that close; Dallas was the superior team. It was fluky that the WTF’s got back in it, one part Dallas being sloppy, one part fluke. Washington is no serious threat to Dallas.
The Cowboys are now (9-4) and in total control of the NFC East. I’d argue, at full strength, they are possibly the best team in the NFC…but they can never get to full strength (now Tyron Smith is going to miss Week 15). Maybe by the playoffs they can get healthy – their big lead in the East allows them to maybe coast a little, throttle back a little and heal up some players. Dallas should finish with 12 wins and a long shot hope for a #1 seed…but more likely they are a #3-4 seed in a loaded NFC.
Washington is (6-7) and doesn’t belong in the playoffs…but they still have life. All I care is they get to 8 wins to ‘push’ my ‘over’ 8.0 wins preseason bet on them. We project that’s where they end – 8 wins, and out of the playoffs.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Three Dallas players don’t look totally ‘right’ to me. They are…
The first of three is Dak Prescott (22-39 for 211 yards, 1 TD/2 INT)
4 TDs/5 INTs the past 4 games. 6 TDs/6 INTs the last 5 games. Under 240 yards passing in four of his last 6 games. And the slide is happening against weaker pass defenses.
Part of the issue is some of that time he missed Tyron Smith in some games during that stretch, but only a few. Part of the issue, from what I am seeing…Dak just looks a tad jittery/jumpy/not himself passing, to my eyes. I don’t know if it’s an injury he’s keeping to himself…or if it is residual from last year’s injury...or I don’t know what it is, but it hasn’t been great…and we know Dak is pretty good/great.
Something is up and it is dragging down some players around him, for FF.
-- The second of the three is the worst-looking one… Ezekiel Elliott (12-45-0, 1-15-0/6)
One catch off 6 targets this game. Unbelievable.
Another sub-4.0 ypc game…five games in a row. Zeke’s last 7 games ypc per game…
Week 8 = 3.1
Week 9 = 5.1
Week 10 = 2.9
Week 11 = 3.6
Week 12 = 2.8
Week 13 = 3.5
Week 14 = 3.8
Zeke has a sprained PCL, and that is like a weight on your back trying to play with it…reduced speed, reduced agility…beyond the pain/discomfort. Everyone can see it. He needs time off. He probably won’t get it. Given the 3-game lead now and facing NYG this week…MAYBE they really throttle him back and let his knee have an extra week to heal. Why they keep pushing him all week, I have no idea. Once healed, he’ll be fine.
Tony Pollard has a torn plantar fasciitis, and he may need another week or two…or go on IR. If so, Corey Clement (13-44-0, 1-2-0/2) is the ‘next man up’…and that may matter vs. NYG. He may see 10+ touches Week 15…maybe.
Clement has been a long-time grinder backup for the Eagles, then released by the new regime, and picked up by Dallas and he’s been rostered all season. He’s a low-end athlete, but experienced, tough/a grinder.
-- The third letdown of the Dallas triumvirate is Amari Cooper (5-51-1/7). He’s not playing poorly…he just looks like the least dangerous of the Dallas trio of WRs anymore. No longer ‘wow’ or ‘elite’ or ‘the man’.
CeeDee Lamb (7-61-0/10) is the Dak go-to anymore, but Gallup looks way better/quicker/more effective than any of them.
Since Michael Gallup (5-60-0/9) has returned to playing 90%+ of the snaps (Week 11), look at the target distribution between Amari and Gallup since then…
5.0 rec. (9.3 targets), 61.5 yards, 0.25 TDs per game = Gallup (last 4 weeks)
3.3 rec. (4.5 targets), 45.0 yards, 0.25 TDs per game = Amari (last 4 weeks)
Gallup has caught 5 passes in a game for four straight games. Amari has caught 5 or more passes in a game 4 times this season (in 11 games).
The new pecking order for the Dallas passing game…
Lamb
Gallup
Cooper
-- Not Dalton Schultz (1-4-0/3) in the pecking order…he is dead to me. I didn’t believe Gallup would be heavily involved upon his return, as he’s been a ghost with the trio back to 2020 – but I was wrong, way wrong. Schultz has died since Gallup returned…something I also did not believe would happen.
-- Antonio Gibson (10-36-0, 2-5-0/2) was crushed by the revamped/healthy Dallas D-Line, and then fumbled…which has been an issue. He got benched again. But when this game got back to being a game…he was back in. Blame this one on the Dallas D.
-- With a week to get ready to deploy all necessary assets, Curtis Samuel (0-0-0/2) saw no catches and no carries. Message received. I’m done with him for 2021, and we’ll have to reevaluate him for 2022 in this weak offense.
Terry McLaurin (0-0-0/4) was busy putting up another dud then was out due to a concussion…and still not any extra Samuel to try and push their (supposed) best offensive weapons.
-- Ricky Seals-Jones (1-8-0/4) and John Bates (1-19-0/2) were nobodies here -- but blame Dallas some…WSH needed extra blocking from the TEs.
Week 15, they face the TE utopia of the Eagles defense. RSJ might matter Week 15…maybe.
-- The Dallas-DST is smoking hot right now. I’ve been saying for a few weeks that Dallas could be an overall monster (as a team) when they get all their D-Lineman back healthy. Well, Week 14 was really the first time the main guys played together…
Randy Gregory (1 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT, 2 QB hits)
Neville Gallimore (2 tackles, 1 sack, 1 QB hit)
DeMarcus Lawrence (2 tackles, 1 sack, 2 QB hits)
Micah Parsons (3 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 2 QB hits)
9 QB hits for Dallas D…5.0 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 1 pick.
Guess what’s gonna happen when they face the Giants Week 15?
Snap Counts of Interest:
48 = Bates
31 = RSJ
42 = Humphries
40 = D Carter
40 = Sims
33 = McLaurin
23 = Dyami
14 = CSam
75 = Amari
70 = Gallup
57 = CeeDee
54 = Elliott
31= Clement
02 = J Hardy
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
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