2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Falcons 21, Jaguars 14
The only reason Atlanta won this game solidly is because they got a turnover early in the game with a short field and that led to a quick score and a 14-3 lead. Other than that, these are two fairly evenly matched teams...they both suck.
I have no idea how the Falcons have won 5 games. Well, I do actually. Because Cordarrelle Patterson should be in the top 3 for MVP. But other than Patterson this team blows. No creativity, no energy, Matt Ryan is almost as painful to watch as Big Ben...they are going to get utterly smashed against the Bucs this week.
The Jaguars aren't a very talented team, but even with all the turmoil they've dealt with this year watching their head coach fondle strange girls in bars, they are still playing with more fire than the Falcons. If it wasn't for that early turnover (and Trevor Lawrence) I think they would have won this game.
With this win the Falcons keep their (misguided) playoff hopes alive. It's a fool's dream. They have 3 nearly guaranteed losses coming against the Bucs, Bills, and 49'ers but 3 potentially winnable games against the Saints, Panthers, and Lions. I think they beat the Lions and one of the other two games to bring them to 7-10 on the season and ultimately miss the playoffs.
The Jaguars fall to 2-9 and are likely to finish with only another win or two against the Jets or Texans. Every other game they are huge underdogs. This team has a little fight in them lately, but they are just bad on defense and bad at QB. I don't see any reason why the ship would get righted anytime soon.
Fantasy Notes
--To any Kyle Pitts (2-26-0/6) owners out there...I feel your pain. I've been starting him every week too. A few weeks ago I thought he might be on the verge of a breakout, but it's becoming more and more apparent that circumstances will not allow it to happen...this year.
I've watched a lot of Pitts because I'm vested in this outcome and I can confidently say the issue is not Pitts. The problem is Matt Ryan is washed and Arthur Smith isn't doing Pitts any favors. Pitts is doubled literally every single play, typically with two defenders running zone coverage, one going high and the other low. Defenses can afford to because who else do they have? Well, they do have MVP candidate Patterson, but defenses don't seem to really care. Patterson is always 1-on-1 when he lines up out wide, but the defense follows Pitts wherever he goes. I haven't seen this kind of respect for a rookie ever. I've barely seen this type of respect for any player this year. Everyone knows he's special except, apparently, Arthur Smith.
What's my beef with Smith? He's doing absolutely nothing to help spring Pitts open. No play action where Pitts runs hidden behind the line into the flat (every team does this and their garbage TE's are always wide open), no double moves, nothing down the field...it's the same old boring short/medium plays that your parent’s favorite TE from the 1990's would run.
Oh and let's not forget that Ryan is one step away from the broadcast booth. He couldn't hit Pitts in stride even if Pitts didn't have anyone covering him. Pitts is so dominant he'll still sometimes pop open, but Ryan will throw it high and away or low and behind him. One of his catches here was actually a magnificent catch on a pass low and behind him and Pitts just snatched it away from the trailing defender.
All of this to say...it's not Pitts, and I do believe better days are ahead. Maybe not 2021 but dynasty players should be buying. Pitts won't ever be this low again.
--Cordarrelle Patterson (16-108-2, 2-27-0/3) for MVP. That is all.
--As Ryan dies before our eyes he's taking everything with him except maybe Russell Gage (6-62-1/7). It's not a great connection, just an easy short throw for Ryan, but it is something, and it's not getting much respect in ppr leagues because it's boring (no 100 yard games). But in his last 5 games (throwing out the Dallas game where all the starters sat early), Gage has averaged 5.4 catches for 54 yards and 0.4 TD's per game (13.2 ppg). That's WR2-2.5 work.
--Speaking of bad QB's, Trevor Lawrence (23-42 for 228 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 5-39-0) isn't getting better. If anything he's getting worse. The Jaguars actually had a chance to tie the game on their final drive, but against a prevent defense Lawrence could barely complete a pass. There are tons of awful QB's that easily score in 2-minute situations every week and yet Lawrence couldn't even connect with wide open receivers. Generational my ass.
--Dan Arnold hurt his knee here and was replaced by James O'Shaughnessy (3-29-0/5). I guess O'Shaughnessy works as a TE streamer, but this passing game sucks and he's way down the target totem pole. If Arnold wasn't getting it done, what makes you think O'Shaughnessy will?
--Early on it was obvious Jacksonville was trying to get Laviska Shenault (5-33-0/9) the ball on his short stuff again, but of course it didn't work because Laviska has no short area quickness. You can't start him right now no matter how much the team says they want to get him the ball.
--After Shenault failed, Lawrence turned to his old favorite Marvin Jones (4-43-0/7) and this worked a little better. Jones is a much better overall receiver than Shenault, but Lawrence was all over the place with his accuracy and Jones was forced to make ridiculous catches just to bring the ball in. Jones can still be used as a WR3 for now.
--However, the most interesting thing from this game started to happen in the 3rd and 4th quarters. I was mostly checked out of the rewatch at that point and just ready to move onto the next game when suddenly I noticed a Jaguar receiver moving around really well, playing with a ton of energy and combativeness, running through tackles, making tough catches...who on earth was this new mystery man? Turns out it was none other than former 1st round bust Laquon Treadwell (4-53-0/8) and boy did he look fantastic.
The biggest knock on Treadwell years ago was his speed, but his effort was also questioned. Not here. He looked fast and sleek, in much better shape than his early career, and he was sprinting back to the ball after each play. You could tell he was getting a chance and knew this was his final shot to prove himself.
I don't want to run off the rails with this because Lawrence is still the QB and there are two guys ostensibly ahead of him, but I never thought the Jags would turn to Jamal Agnew either and yet they did. After Treadwell made his first play or two it was obvious somebody recognized it because he was the main target late in the game. Maybe this just disappears against the Rams, but maybe it doesn't.
The Jags have already shown they'll play anyone that can help the team. I think we're going to see Treadwell with a minor breakout here. How much it's worth for fantasy I couldn't begin to guess however. All I'm saying is that I'm on alert and I'm telling RC to watch too because this might be yet another late-breaking opportunity for WR needy teams. I haven't heard a peep about Treadwell from anyone in the industry, so we're way ahead of a possible breakout here. If you have the room I'd stash Treadwell just in case, but if space is tight you might get away with waiting another week to see how it develops.
IDP Notes
--Shaquille Quarterman (7 tackles) somehow managed to log those 7 tackles on a mere 20 snaps. The guy was a 4th round pick by Jacksonville in 2020 out of Miami where he was a 4-year starter for the Hurricanes and highly productive. He apparently fell in the draft due to athleticism concerns as his numbers were far from eye-catching.
I was watching for him here on RC's request and was getting frustrated because he was so rarely in, and even when he did get in nothing much really stood out about him. The athleticism concerns seem to be real but overblown. He's not a speedster by any means, but he gets to the ball. Reminds me a lot of Azeez Al-Shaiir and Krys Barnes, two other guys that don't blow you away when you see them play but then you look at the box score and they have 10+ tackles.
Quarterman upped his snaps from week 1 to 2, then was out for two weeks, back in at about 20 snaps a game for two weeks and then out again until his return in week 11 with 8 snaps and back up to 20 here, partially due to Damien Wilson going down with an injury. 20 is the highest he's played in any one game all year, but the guy is averaging a tackle every 5.3 snaps for the year. That's an extremely good rate and if he could keep it up while increasing his snaps we could be looking at a shock IDP performer out of nowhere. Let's see if he's starting this week with Wilson out.
--Falcons rookie safety Richie Grant (4 tackles, 2 tfl) is playing more of a LB role than true safety. He's still just rotating in, but when he does he's usually around the line of scrimmage trying to attack. He's pretty good at slipping through to the backfield, but I've yet to see any kind of real coverage ability. Just looks like a small LB right now.
Snap Counts of Interest
71 = Marvin Jones
63 = Laquon Treadwell
53 = Laviska Shenault
13 = Tavon Austin
59 = James O'Shaughnessy
27 = Chris Manhertz
