2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: Chiefs 19, Cowboys 9
*With the Thanksgiving week schedule complexities of the triple-header, etc., the game reports this week will be less pontificating and more ‘just the facts’ on players/situations we need to consider for Week 12 and beyond. I’ll be back to being a blowhard next week, I promise.
I had to laugh at the outcome of this game. All Sunday, on all the Fantasy and general football shows I heard bits and pieces of analysts crowing about how Vegas had this projected as the high scoring game of the week and how it would be so good for Fantasy and viewing. Well, it wasn’t the top scoring game of the week…it was the 3rd-lowest. Tim Boyle vs. wounded Baker in the cold and rain was slightly lower scoring than this one – that lets you know how bad this game was.
What happened? I’ll address it in the first player note below.
The Chiefs won to go to (7-4), and everything seems right with the football world now that the mainstream unanimous pick has won four in-a-row and is in 1st-place in the AFC West. They barely beat the Giants Week 8. They barely beat the horrible Jordan Love debut Week 9. They blew out LV Week 10. They looked terrible here in winning/surviving Dallas. Three of their last four, KC was not well.
This KC team is not fixed…it’s pretty mediocre still. Fortunately, the schedule is their friend ahead and they should finish with 11 wins and probably hold off the Chargers for the AFC title.
The Cowboys laid their second egg in the last three games…the Week 10 Falcons humiliation distracting us from their issues. It’s not that Dallas is bad, it’s several key injuries pushing the issue – Tyron Smith out the last three weeks is massive. Amari out here. Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory have been out for weeks and will gone 3-4 more weeks. The Cowboys are now (7-3) but losing steam and losing players and allowing Philly and Washington to get back into the NFC East discussion suddenly. Dallas should win 10-11 games and hold off the Eagles for the NFC East, but if they lose to Vegas on Thanksgiving – then Dallas is in a lot of trouble.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The reason both of these teams look so bad now and the scoring was so low here, is simple…they’re missing key O-Lineman and thus their ace, franchise QBs have less time in the pocket than ever before. QBs are propped up by great lines and QBs can also be brought low by them, when they’re poor…and that’s happening here.
When I was fast-forwarding a section of this game looking for a certain play to rewatch, I was essentially watching the condensed version of this game (no huddles/commercials, etc.), at warp speed, and something struck me during it and so I took a moment to watch the whole game on fast-forward to test my instincts…and my instincts were right, I think. Watching it high-speed, it was like a keystone cops event. Take away the announcers and watching the receivers or ballcarriers and just looking at the QBs in the pocket, rapidly, showed both QBs under constant pressure (mild or heavy) and sliding from trouble, or full-scale scrambling from trouble every other pass attempt. Rare did they ever take their drop back, plant their feet and fire cleanly.
Three outcomes happened over and over in this game on pass attempts…
1) QBs under duress, moving…shifting…scrambling constantly -- thus 0 TDs/3 INTs combined for two elite QBs. 8.0 sacks, 15 QB hits combined on the two QBs.
2) QBs either had some time or they scrambled into a throw to an open receiver who dropped it. I’m not playing this up…several key drops in this game could’ve brough Dallas into it or helped KC put it away.
3) Solid completed passes when the QB had a moment to breathe.
More of #1 and #2 happened than #3, above.
There’s nothing wrong with either QB. There’s everything wrong with their O-Lines right now, and their non #1 WRs.
CeeDee Lamb (3-14-0/4) is not a real #1 WR. With Amari out, and Dak trying to force things…Lamb never responds. He’s a great receiver when Amari-Gallup-Schultz are getting attention and Lamb breaks wide open. He’s a highly overrated WR as a technician receiver. But, like Jaylon Smith, we’ll be told how great he is for a couple more years, and Dallas will sign him to a massive contract extension when his time comes.
Lamb had no presence here and left halfway through with a concussion…and is likely out for Week 12, which may be doing Dak a favor.
Dak Prescott (28-43 for 216 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) needs Tyron Smith back more than CeeDee Lamb…and if he doesn’t get him back, then he’ll continue to be more QB2 not a QB1.
Patrick Mahomes (23-37 for 260 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) either gets some OLs back healthy or they change their blocking scheme – or he’s going to be a back end QB1. If they do get this fixed…the #1 QB1 is his destination. He looks fine, he just has less time than ever and he’s forcing/hurrying things to really crappy WRs outside of Tyreek and Kelce.
With Mahomes, if you own him, all you can do is keep running him out there and hoping for the turn in the blocking or a weak pass rush team he faces. Mahomes is a ride or die, and we may die on it this season.
-- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (12-63-1, 2-13-0/2) goes right from IR to main starter/toucher of the ball in the KC backfield. I had fears that Darrel Williams (5-15-0, 1-11-0/3) has shown enough to pull into a 50-50 hot hand situation, but I’m the fool.
The NFL sticks by their designated RB no matter what inconvenient truths hit them. Only injury forces coaches to change plans…but they’ll go right back to the original plan the second they can…like a dog to its own vomit.
-- …that’s why no matter how ineffective Ezekiel Elliott (9-32-0, 6-36-0/6) gets at times (five straight games under 70 yards rushing), and no matter how effective Tony Pollard (7-50-0, 2-20-0/2) is…Zeke will always be the lead if they can hobble him out there, and Pollard serves as a relief back not a weapon back.
They could turn Pollard into a Deebo-like ‘weapon’ but they won’t. Hasn’t even crossed their minds.
-- With Amari out, Michael Gallup (5-44-0/10) looked healthy and quick, but he does not have a great working connection with Dak, for whatever reason. This should’ve been a time for Gallup to rise up (Amari out, then Lamb out) but nope.
Dalton Schultz (6-53-0/8) has a much better relationship with Dak. He’s a PPR TE1…just a boring one. I like his PPR targeting, and he was scoring TDs early on to go-with…but that’s dried up with his passing game lately. Week 12 with no Lamb-Amari should be a good thing for Schultz?
Even if Tyron Smith is out Week 12, Vegas is the team that allowed KC to go off on them during the recent Chiefs offensive malaise. Schultz-Gallup could be in a good spot.
-- We have to credit the KC-DST here for giving Dak fits, but with Tyron Smith Dallas made their job much easier. I mean, Chris Jones had 3.5 sacks in this game…he had 3.0 sacks total in his prior 8 games this season.
The Chiefs-DST has held four of their last 5 opponents to 17 points or less after allowing 29 or more in every one of the first five games of the season.
A bye Week 12, and then two solid home game matchups for the suddenly hot KC-DST Weeks 13-14…DEN and LV. Two of the weaker O-Lines in the NFL. We have Denver graded as the single worst pass blocking O-Line in the NFL this season.
-- A recent KC defensive change the past two games…rookie ILB Nick Bolton (4 tackles, 1 TFL), who was racking up major tackle counts for a stretch, is now no longer starting and only playing 30% or so of the snaps in games. His lack of pass cover ability is hurting his cause. A downward turn for IDP output.
-- Credit the Dallas-DST as well, for the KC/Mahomes issues. The Chiefs only scored 3 points in the 2nd-half as the defense tried to keep Dallas in it – just the offense couldn’t come through.
The fact that Dallas is being a menace on defense missing their best true pass rushers (Lawrence, Gregory) is a good sign for when they get those guys back, this might be a great DST play Weeks 15-16 (the projected returns of those two players) at NYG and hosting Washington.
Micah Parsons (4 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 3 QB hits) has all but wrapped up the DPOY award, as Chris at Bet The Close podcast was predicting as one of his major bet for him in the preseason. Hope some of you were able to legally cash in on that guidance.
You might could use the Dallas-DST for the next five weeks, if you had to. The five QBs they are facing ahead: Carr-Siemian-Heinicke-DanJones-Heinicke.
Snap Counts of Interest:
55 = Tyreek
40 = Pringle
29 = Gordon
28 = DeM Robinson
12 = Hardman
36 = D Williams
32 = CEH
63 = Gallup
42 = Noah Brown
42 = C Wilson
36 = Lamb
46 = Zeke
22 = Pollard
