2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 10: Bills 45, Jets 17
This game was actually surprisingly close in the first half. You wouldn't know it by the score, but the Jets were competitive, just overmatched. The score was only 17-3 at halftime, but after that the Bills flipped a switch and just dominated New York the rest of the way.
Despite the blowout nature of the game, I have several takeaways from what I saw here.
First, Josh Allen is my vote for MVP. While watching this game I couldn' stop myself from texting RC over and over. “That was a great throw by Allen,” “Wow, what a great throw!” “This is unreal, he's making insane throw after insane throw.” The entire game was that way, and it should be seen as a compliment to the Jets defense as well because if the QB play had been even a step lower it might have been a competitive game. That's how good Allen was playing. He took a scrappy, tough defense and reduced them to complete frustration because no matter how tightly they covered his receivers, Allen was just laying the ball in the absolute perfect spot every throw.
This was the most impressive QB play I've seen in years, possibly ever. In my opinion, Allen should now be considered the single best QB in the NFL, just a tick ahead of Mahomes because while both are good runners, Allen adds the dimension of being able to run with power. Regardless, there's no arguing that Allen doesn't belong or that he's going to regress to his pre-2020 form. The man is a force at QB.
On the other side of the field, Mike White was sacrificed to the wolves to prop up #2 overall pick Zach Wilson...and White was not the disaster everyone is saying he was. I could give a damn about the 4 INT's. Only one of them was a truly dumb decision and a second one he didn't think a safety could make a play on the ball. But despite the INT's, White never looked gunshy, he never stopped firing, attacking the middle of a ferocious Bills defense while completely outclassed at every position. If anything, this game showed me that White is completely for real.
Remember earlier in the year when I defended Davis Mills after his poor outing against the Bills and how he looked quite competent against lesser competition after that? Well White just did the same thing except he was much, much better than Mills. Where Mills just looked fine, not over his head, White was trying to go after the Bills, not intimidated at all.
There was no chance he was going to succeed against the NFL's best defense and Jets management knew that. This was an intentional decision to make him look bad so they could safely install Wilson as the starter against the Texans in two weeks. That's also why Flacco is going to start against the Dolphins, because that defense is suddenly feisty and might crush Wilson.
Don't get me wrong, I like Wilson as much as anyone and still think highly of his prospects. It's unfair to try and write him off after one bad season. I've actually seen a lot of flashes from him despite the terrible circumstances. But this isn't about Wilson, it's about White and how he's earned a shot at this job, draft position be damned.
Interesting note, White will be a free agent in 2022, albeit a restricted free agent. So it's debatable what could happen with him. The Jets can choose to match any offer, but what if someone decides to pay up for a chance at White? He could be on the move. I highly doubt that happens though, not in today's QB economy. There are simply too many good ones to justify paying an obscene amount to a guy you're unsure of. They might be forced to let him go/trade him in the off-season just to protect Wilson again. Think about how Minshew was sent off for a 6th round pick to protect Lawrence. I'll be monitoring White this next free agent period. I'm a big fan now.
Fantasy Notes
--The Buffalo RB splits were very strange here. Devin Singletary (7-43-1) was the first guy in the game as usual, but then Matt Breida (3-28-1, 3-22-1/3) was shockingly inserted before Zach Moss (7-27-1) and scored a receiving TD out of the backfield.
After that, Moss became the go-to guy for a large chunk of a series, and I began to think Breida had gotten hurt. But no, Breida came back in at the end of a drive and rushed for a nice TD. Singletary would then come back in for a bit, and things wrapped up with Moss rounding out the day with a TD of his own to match the other two. Moss was also in on most 3rd downs as a pass blocker.
So is there any rhyme or reason to the pattern? Can you suddenly trust Breida? Is Moss losing his job? Hell if I know. I think this group just got even more disjointed than it already was now that Breida is healthy. Looks like we're going to see the same split between all these guys but now with Breida taking a few more reps. Smart for the NFL. Sucks for fantasy. I would avoid all of them to save yourself the headache.
--Where has this Stefon Diggs (8-162-1/13) been all year? This was the first time I've seen Allen forcing the ball to him all year, and my only theory is that it was because the Jets coverage was so tight on everyone else. Literally nothing was open, not even with Diggs, but Allen was making some insane throws to fit it in. I don't know if this marks a turning point for him or not. I hope so, but until I see more I'm going to bet that it defaults back to what we saw the first 9 weeks.
--The much-awaited return of Dawson Knox (1-17-0/1) resulted in a complete stinker. I don't think there's a problem here. Again nothing was open for Allen all game, and I didn't see anything off about Knox's movements. He just didn't get the ball for whatever reason. Hopefully he'll be back and better integrated into the offense next week. The connection between Knox and Allen isn't going to just disappear.
--You know what other Jets player looked fantastic here? Michael Carter (16-39-1, 4-43-0/6). He's the better Elijah Mitchell to me. Similar body types but Carter looks faster, more explosive, and with better hands in the passing game. Don't be scared by the low ypc here. The Jets run blocking isn't and the Bills defense is just shutting everything down. Carter is definitely a buy for me in dynasty but I'm a little worried about his redraft value without Mike White throwing him so many dump passes. Hopefully Wilson learned a thing or two from White's example while he was out.
Despite not playing much the first few weeks, Carter is now the #18 RB in ppr formats ahead of Antonio Gibson, Myles Gaskin, Damien Harris, Javonte Williams, and Chase Edmonds among others.
--While I still have some hope for Carter, I'm afraid we've seen the last of Ty Johnson (2-2-0, 5-36-0/8) in redraft now that Wilson is coming back.
--Elijah Moore (3-44-1/6) saved an otherwise poor day with a garbage time TD. This dip in numbers wasn't a problem with him or White. The Buffalo defense is just that good. Just like with Johnson, I'm worried about his redraft value without White, but I think he should be ok. Wilson likes going downfield to his receivers. Moore just wasn't available due to injuries early in the year with Wilson at QB. Let's see if Wilson looks more for Moore or Corey Davis (5-93-0/7).
--Speaking of Davis, he's got to be the worst #1 receiver in the league. I am just never impressed with that guy. Complete waste of money.
Snap Counts of Interest
49 = Dawson Knox
22 = Reggie Gilliam
20 = Tommy Sweeney
46 = Stefon Diggs
35 = Emmanuel Sanders
30 = Gabriel Davis
13 = Isaiah McKenzie
28 = Zach Moss
22 = Devin Singletary
8 = Matt Breida
65 = Corey Davis
64 = Jamison Crowder
43 = Elijah Moore
32 = Keelan Cole
55 = Ryan Griffin
8 = Trevon Wesco
40 = Michael Carter
25 = Ty Johnson
