2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 10: Packers 17, Seahawks 0
Aaron Rodgers v. Russell Wilson in a big-time NFC showdown in the Year 2021, which means that a defensive struggle broke out.
It didn’t help that Russell Wilson’s hand wasn’t 100% but it was more that Seattle has a surprisingly good/emerging defense, and the Green Bay Packers have the best defense in football right now (according to me). More on these two DSTs in a moment.
This game was 3-0 going into the 4th-quarter. Neither team could really get going on offense all that well. Eventually, Green Bay broke the seal in the 4th-quarter and Seattle was helpless to try to do the same.
Seattle falls to (3-6) with an outside chance at getting to 9 wins because of a few cupcakes on the schedule, but likely they will wind up around 7-8 wins…because their offensive line is really bad.
Green Bay is now (8-2), and the best team in football. A top defense, a nice run game, an HOF QB. They are a David Bakhtiari return (next week) away from being the best all-around team in the NFL (just need a new kicker)…and are a Jaire Alexander and Za’Darius Smith return away from a Super Bowl title (assuming all other key things stay healthy, which is never assured).
Arizona having to go to Green Bay in January…yeah, I’ll take the Pack. GB can get to 13-14 wins with all the talent they could be getting back…or just with the talent they have. If they punt the Vikings at Minnesota this week…then watch out NFC/the world.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The most important FF thing to discuss from this game…how excellent the Green Bay Packers defense has become. This despite their top CB (Jaire Alexander) and a top pass rusher (Za’Darius Smith) being out.
Three games ago they made Kyler Murray look human for the first time this season.
Two games ago, they made Patrick Mahomes get criticized in the sports media all week…analysts blaming Mahomes/KC, not the GB defense.
This past game, they shutout Russell Wilson…and Russ’s hand getting the blame, not the GB defense.
The Packers are the #3 points per game allowed defense in the NFL…#1 if you take it from Week 2 on. Week 1 they had that weird game where the Saints scored 38 points, but it was a lot of luck and turnovers helping that.
This defense has been progressively getting better each week. Once rookie CB Eric Stokes (1 tackle, 1 PD) went into the starting lineup, they’ve taken off.
De’Vondre Campbell (5 tackles, 1 TFL) has been one of the best free agent signings of the year…and it was last second. As he’s gotten used to the defense, the Pack D has taken off. He’s a top DPOY candidate for me this year. So is Stokes, but neither will get an ounce of recognition by the football media.
Credit as well to Rasul Douglas (4 tackles, 1 PD, 1 TFL) who bounces around the league, but always plays well wherever he goes.
Also, Adrian Amos (4 tackles, 3 PDs) seems like he’s everywhere in pass coverage help. And Rashaan Gary (3 tackles, 1.0 sacks) is having a breakout year…just in time for his free agency.
You’d love to jump all over this for DST use, but at MIN Week 11 isn’t a great matchup…but Green Bay has blown through ‘bad matchups’ lately. Week 12 vs. LAR isn’t optimal, but not devastating. Week 13 is a bye. The next 3 weeks aren’t wonderful setups. Then it gets better – CHI, at BAL, CLE, MIN…three of 4 at home from Weeks 14-17.
-- All the top 10 NFL defenses in PPG allowed are winning record teams or .500 teams at worst except one…and you’d be shocked to know it’s the Seattle Seahawks. The #9 defense in PPG allowed, just a hair behind #8 PIT. I know I was shocked when I saw that.
They held Green Bay to just 3 points going into the 4th-quarter. They’ve allowed 12.3 PPG over their last three games. It’s a top 10 run defense (by ypc allowed) but still the #29 pass defense (by yards per game). They’ve given up the 4th lowest number of passing TDs this season…they give up some yards but not scores.
Whether you guy into this defense for FF or not…not that they do have a good schedule after Week 11.
Heinicke, Jimmy G., Tyrod, Stafford, Fields, Goff in Weeks 12-17. They are improving on defense and about to hit a nice schedule stretch to further support things.
-- The big news here is A.J. Dillon (21-66-2, 2-62-0/2) is going to get clean starts for the next two weeks, at least, likely. Aaron Jones has a sprained MCL, and that could be more like 4-5 weeks versus 2-3.
Dillon is the closest thing we have to Derrick Henry in the NFL…a modern-day Earl Campbell. Buckle up for a 1-2-3+ week run with a new high-end RB1.
Every week, another RB or three goes down and gives opportunity to the #2 for 1-3 weeks. Dillon is the best of all #2s. Whatever #1 RB hasn’t been hurt yet…they’re due. Hold onto the #2 RB in a decent offense, where they’d really matter if given the shot -- Tony Pollard, Marlon Mack, even Ronald Jones. Those three #2 RBs named are behind top #1s who haven’t missed a game yet.
NOTE: When Green Bay did score the game’s only TD, it was Dillon for the short plunge. However, oddly, before that…Patrick Taylor took the two carries in the goal-to-go situation before Dillon punched it in. Taylor is talented, but not as much as Dillon. He’ll see some touches, but I am only pointing him out to note he’s the handcuff for if Dillon goes down while Jones is still down…and that he’s pretty solid/good as a power runner.
-- Dillon will be helped by the fading passing game of Aaron Rodgers (23-37 for 292 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT), plus the Pack’s good defense. Green Bay can win through run game and defense, and not have to rely on Rodgers for everything.
Rodgers still has the arm, quick release…but he only seems comfortable with Davante Adams (7-78-0/11) and swing passes to the RBs. He’s still a top/dangerous NFL QB…just a weakening one for FF.
Rodgers will be helped for output when Bakhtiari returns, but that edge is probably negated by Green Bay not needing to throw a million times to win anymore. Rodgers is on the fence of QB1/QB2 for FF ahead…no longer a ‘top guy’ but can have top guy weeks.
-- Russell Wilson (20-40 for 161 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs, 5-32-0) didn’t look right. He didn’t look obviously hindered, but he did not look like himself throwing the ball PLUS the Packers defense was all over him.
Wilson’s hand might be an issue, but I know his pass protection is. We have Seattle, currently, as the single lowest rated pass protection group in the NFL. That’s not good for Russ production…or for time to throw to Lockett-Metcalf.
Which, speaking of that…
-- There were a ton of passes, short/quick ones to Gerald Everett (8-63-0/8) here. It seemed like a random game plan or something, but then I saw that the last time Everett played with Russ (all the way back in Week 3), he had a (5-54-0/5) game.
13 catches on 13 targets for 117 yards is the tally for their last two, full games together…TE1 work in PPR. It’s worth noting or gambling on ahead. However, Week 11 vs. Arizona is not a great matchup to see…but we’ll see. Wilson needs quick/short dump passes to counterbalance his awful O-Line…it might Everett in the spot to gain from it.
-- This Seattle O-Line is so bad it is killing Alex Collins (10-41-0, 1-8-0/1). Collins sees primary touches but can hardly get going before he’s greeted by the defense on every handoff.
Collins may need to start the rest of the season, which has some FF hope…but his O-Line is going to suppress him to RB2.5-3.0 work, it looks like.
Snap Counts of Interest:
70 = Davante
50 = Cobb
49 = MVS
44 = Lazard
36 = Dillon
34 = Jones
03 = Taylor
31 = Homer (led SEA RBs in snaps, working as a satellite back/hurry up offense time)
30 = Collins
