2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 10: Colts 23, Jaguars 17
The Colts got the ball first, went right down the field, the Jags halted them at the goal line three straight times, and then the Colts settled for a cheap field goal. 3-0 Indy.
The Colts stopped the Jags three-and-out next drive, then blocked their punt attempt for a defensive TD. 10-0 Colts in a blink.
The Colts stopped the Jags again, got the ball back, went right down the field and scored another TD…17-0 Colts, with still time remaining in the 1st-quarter. I thought the Colts might win 50+ to nothing at this point, as did everybody. It was a joke.
From that point on, the Jags defense whipped the arse of the Colts, and Jacksonville won the next three quarters 17-6.
Jonathan Taylor went over a 100-yards rushing in the 1st-half, but I’m not sure he had 10 yards rushing in the 2nd-half. If not for the utter nothingness of Trevor Lawrence…the worst of the five rookie QBs so far, and also if not for the inability of the Jags receivers to catch passes when Lawrence did deliver – the Jags would have won. They were driving with 2+ minutes left for a game winning TD, but Lawrence got hit running the ball midfield, coughed it up, Colts recovered…ball game.
The Jags really were in a spot to go win the game in the end after a devastating, humiliating start. Credit…credit…credit Urban Meyer, I guess, because the Jags never gave up and played with intensity and a fire and got themselves back in this game.
In the Jags’ last 8 quarters played, they’ve outplayed and outscored Buffalo and Indianapolis in seven of those 8 quarters. This team is not rolling over and dying like the Jets, Texans, or the Lions. You don’t want to play the Jags right now. Top 5 O-Line. Top 10 D-Line. Improving secondary. Bad kicker. Horrible QB and WRs. Not great all-around…but not pushovers anymore, out of nowhere really. They might win 4-5 games this season (ATL, NYJ, HOU still on schedule).
The Colts get lucky…this finesse team evaded/ducked and hid from the physical team to the final moment and hung on for a win. This Colts team is a (5-5) fraud. Wins over bottom feed teams losses anytime they face a .500+ team. Five of their next 7 games are with .500+ teams. They will finish with 8 wins tops, but possibly 7 wins. 9 wins would be their ceiling. When will teams learn about Carson Wentz as their QB?
In my 2021 NFL Draft scouting reports, I compared Trevor Lawrence to a Carson Wentz-alike at best…thus not a generational talent, not even close. Did I lie?
College Football Metrics 2022 is about two months away from the first QB reports rolling off the presses…where draft/rookie scouting magic happens.
Did I not tell you Spencer Rattler was no good this summer, in jut preview scouting? Me on one side saying he sucks. The entirety of football media and analysis and scouting was on the other side saying he was a franchise QB, #1 pick overall for the 2022 NFL Draft all summer. What can I say? https://youtu.be/L-l6tHeseDY
Unless the entirety of the football intelligentsia meant that Rattler was going to get benched partway into the college season and look to transfer in shame as their definition of a ‘franchise NFL QB’ – then they are really bad at their jobs. Also, all those same people called Trevor Lawrence ‘generational’. Not me.
What scouting side do you want to be on? Me and Ross on one side or the side with every NFL scout, NFL GM, NFL coach (assistant or head, every TV analyst, every former player turned talking head, every talk show host local and national, and every writer for the NFL or college or Fantasy on the other side? It’s a pretty loaded side on the mainstream…and all of them wrong…in lockstep...a lot.
They have one job…and they suck at it.
That girl that Urban jammed his finger up her *REDACTED*…that won’t get him fired, but Trevor Lawrence will. All of football media and analysis tried to jam their fingers up your *REDACTED* on Trevor for 3+ years leading up to 2021. Hope you turned around and smacked them in the face. There’s no better way to do so then by subscribing to CFM and FFM. That’s how you do a promo – you take Urban’s wandering, explicit finger and turn it into something beneficial.
Where was I? Oh, the Colts and Jags are not playoff teams and they do not have franchise QBs. Sorry. Wentz did have that one year where he was pretty good in output for a couple of months that they can all reference from now until eternity when Wentz is a dutiful clipboard holding backup in the league in 2023.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The best note from this game is about that Jacksonville defense. Takeaway the blocked punt score, and the Jags allowed just 16 offensive points here. They’ve allowed just one offensive TD in their last two games of play to decent (statistically) offenses…Indy and Buffalo, and they really took it to the Bills.
Is it real going forward? What was the change since 3 games ago when Geno Smith smacked them round? Can we play them for a DST ahead? Whoa, whoa, whoa…one question at a time. I know you’re excited, but let’s settle down.
Is it real going forward?
Hard to say. Something definitely is happening. It isn’t luck. There were moments in this game where a very good Colts O-Line was no match for the Jags front-four onslaught (8 QB hits registered for the Jags here). Beating Buffalo 2 weeks ago was a shock, and not lucky either…it was a pass rush assault. A return to Sacksonville is right around the corner for these guys.
If it is real, you will see them give fits to Kyle Shanahan this week…and then they should destroy Matt Ryan Week 12…then you know something is up.
The top 3 NFL defenses in least amount of passing TDs allowed this season (through Week 10):
1) Buffalo = 6 passing TDs allowed.
2) LA Rams = 10
3) Jacksonville = 11
What was the change since 3 games ago when Geno Smith smacked them around three weeks ago?
I don’t know. Myles Jack returned from injury. Former 1st-round pick Taven Bryan (1 tackle, 1 sack, 2 QB hits) seems like someone found the ‘on button’. But the only real change that I can detect is Rudy Ford (4 tackles) being moved into a ‘Joker’ type position where he’s covering WRs sometimes, playing SAF sometimes, blitzing the backfield sometimes/a lot, playing linebacker sometimes. He’s kinda playing the role Jalen Ramsey is on the Rams. Ford isn’t that great, but I see him all over the field now where he was a bit player prior. He became a full starter the last two games. An IDP upside at DB for deeper IDP leagues.
Can we play them for a DST ahead?
They are a sleeper DST/DFS play vs. SF Week 11. Let’s see if they keep this up…and then it could be game-on with hosting Atlanta Week 12.
For your FF playoff needs(?)… They face Houston Week 15, then at the NY Jets Week 16…if this is real.
-- Jamal Agnew (3-79-1, 0-0-0/5) would make me punch the wall one moment, then delight in him the next.
The bad news…no catches on 5 targets in this game.
The good news…Lawrence was forcing him the ball deep. Agnew had over 100+ air yards of passes his way but wound up with zero yards.
The bad news…Agnew had his hands on two of those 5 passes, tough-but-makeable passes, but he couldn’t hold on…a growing trend weekly with his conversion to real WR.
The good news…He’s now their best running back, showing off with a 66-yard TD run to turn this game around in the 1st-quarter. He led the Jags in rushing for the game.
Agnew doesn’t look like a great WR, yet, but he is a great athlete and the best weapon they have…so, despite the drops he’s going to keep getting the ball out of necessity…air and, now, ground. He’s a legit WR3 with upside hope.
In non-PPR, Jamal Agnew is the #25 PPG scorer at WR since Week 6 (to Wk10). That ain’t bad.
…just a tick ahead of Davante Adams…and ahead of Marquise, Amari, Diontae, Cooks, Beasley, McLaurin, Sutton in that span.
-- I have no real Colts’ notes. Their offense is the great Jonathan Taylor (21-116-1, 6-10-0/8) and Michael Pittman (5-71-0/5), and that’s it.
In a sign of what the Jags D can do, JT and MP got most of their yards in this game in the 1st-quarter…they were pretty shut down the rest of the way.
-- Colts IDP note…
DT Taylor Stallworth (4 tackles, 1 sack, 3 QB hits) has had quite the uptick the past two games…
3.0 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1.5 TFLs, 0.5 PDs, 3.0 QB hits per game the last two games after being a ghost Weeks 1-8. He played his highest snap count of 2021 in this game.
He has 3 sacks his last 2 games, and 1.5 sacks in his prior 45 NFL games.
6 QB hits his last 2 games, and 4 QB hits his prior 45 NFL games.
Blip? We’ll see.
Snap Counts of Interest:
57 = Pascal
56 = Pittman
39 = Hilton
56 = Marvin J
51 = Shenault
50 = Agnew
39 = JRob
18 = Hyde
54 = JTaylor
18 = Hines
